Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast

This week, our 3 Things are: Tight Spreads. What to make of them? Big Bank Credit Color: Fresh earnings releases reveal how their credit exposure has performed, along with how they see it progressing.   Consumer Expectations. We’ll dig into the New York Fed’s latest survey.

This week, our 3 Things are: Recession probabilities. We’ll take a look globally as we enter the easing cycle in the West. Jobs data. You know what the BLS says. Do you believe it? Q3 earnings. We’ll take a look at what’s ahead.  

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Apollo’s vision. Growth of private investment-grade credit has implications for portfolio construction. 2.  CRE’s stability. In the aggregate, it’s alright. 3. Default and recoveries update. Eric Rosenthal joins for his latest update.  

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Robust earnings growth forecast. Does that make sense? 2.  CFO sentiment. We get conflicting views from two surveys. 3. Trade shock. Keep an eye on the Longshoremen.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Fed’s Big Move. A half point breaks convention. Is it necessary?  2.   Credit exuberance. Is relative value still strong?  3.   Post-cut expectations. What does history tell us? 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.    Bank warnings. You’ll want to be aware of what Ally Financial is experiencing. 2.    Small business struggles. Signals are not reassuring from the sector that accounts for 40% of GDP. 3.    Post-inflation risks. It’s time to move your central bank obsession to the back burner.    

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Savings rate. It’s either a sign of exuberance or something else. 2.   2025 earnings. Do the forecasts square up with the macro view? 3.   Beige Book blues. Slowing is now consensus.   

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Debt buildup. Keep an eye on the public sector. 2.   Travel blues. An upcoming grounding. 3.   Jackson Hole. A lot of topics, one course of action.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Behavioral drag. Risk appetite changes as growth slows. 2.   Growth fuel. You’ll miss these things when they’re gone. 3.   Walmart’s significance. Macro signals from a bellwether.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Spread compression. Does this make sense heading into slowdown? 2.   Abundant liquidity. One asset manager says credit is overbought as a result. We’ll explore. 3.   Texas downdraft. This caught us by surprise.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Rate cuts. Here are some grounding points around this upcoming paradigm shift. 2.   Where is the slowdown? Q2 GDP blows away the consensus. Does that change things? 3.   Consumer loan deterioration in a low unemployment environment. This cycle is different.

This week, our 3 Things are: Darkening Credit Markets. A warning or just another myth? Second Half Forecasts. See if you agree. Citigroup’s Disappointing Consumer Results. A canary in the coal mine?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Second-half [2024] themes. Moving on from inflation. 2.   Earnings season. Pepsi, Delta, and ConAgra report—and reality bites. 3.   Goldilocks challenged. Two charts we came across don’t fit the narrative.  

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Capex canary in the coal mine. The capacity is there, but the willingness? 2.   Commercial real estate threat. The federal government is out with a view. 3.   Presidential elections. We found one way it materially impacts credit markets.   

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.    Running of the bulls. Momentum is a tough thing to stop. 2.    Politics and rates. The interplay has some dark undertones. 3.    Aviation. Has it normalized?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.    Visibility. We compare today to a year ago. 2.    Financial conditions. The Fed says they’re tight. Are they? 3.    Tech impact. Keep an eye on creative destruction. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Banks. The FDIC is out with its quarterly assessment. Fresh data on all of those risks you’ve read about. 2.   Corporate versus ABS spreads. There’s been a fairly dramatic move in the differential. We’ll explore. 3.   ECB rate cut. It comes at a time when it forecasts higher inflation. Does that make sense?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Private placements. The Chicago Fed has a surprising take. 2.   Fallen angels. A soft landing should provide … well, you know. 3.   Housing. What’s the latest? 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Fiscal deficits. What do you mean there’s no free lunch? 2.   Seeing around corners. At a time of market ebullience, it’s a worthwhile exercise to think about what could change all of that. 3.   Fundamentals checkup. We’ll have a look under the hood. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   That inflation print. Has the fever broken? 2.   Two economies. The aggregate data and market developments are all good. But that’s not the full story. 3.   Excess savings. That, which has powered the better-than-expected economy, is gone. So says the San Francisco Fed. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.     Credit card loan losses. They’re at the highest level in 13 years despite unemployment at historically low levels. Does that make sense? 2.     Bank lender risk appetite. The latest Senior Loan Officer Survey is out. We’ll tell you what you need to know. 3.     Direct lending into the middle market. A new KBRA report, which has gotten a lot of market attention,...

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Good things coming to an end. We’re still not normal, but we’re heading there. 2.   Bankruptcy trends. A recent shift in trend is noteworthy. 3.   Thresholds. Things—that when crossed—shift sentiment. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.    Big bank color. We’ll summarize what some of the largest lenders are seeing in credit. 2.    Net worth surge. It’s driving the consumers’ confidence to spend. 3.    Treasury volatility. A Fed pivot of the unfavorable kind. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   The CPI print. Is it really shocking? 2.   Earnings season. A third consecutive quarter of earnings growth is forecast but peel this onion a bit and you’ll find some troubling undertones. 3.   Event risk. It’s been relatively quiet. 

This week, our 3 Things are: Small business signals. A good place to look for slowdown. Single-B spreads at 16-year tights. Does that make sense? Apparel company guidance. Have you been paying attention?