Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Exuberance. Is it irrational? 2. Labor strength. Here’s where it might crack. 3. Walmart’s outlook. The challenge of dimensioning tariff impact.

This week, our 3 Things are:  1. Falling oil. Is it good or bad for credit? 2. Tariff impact. We’ll highlight some useful commentary. 3. Credit appeal. How does credit stack up in this environment?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Complacency. It’s back. 2. Trade progress. What’s the evidence? 3. European appeal. It’s become a fashionable trade. My European counterpart weighs in.

This week, our 3 Things are: Consumer finance guidance. Differing opinions about the future. Consumer spending. We give our take on this all-important driver of global growth.   The Forward Look. Here’s what we think is worth watching in Q2.  

This week, our 3 Things are: Dow and United Airlines. Two bellwethers face the music. Big bank credit color. Oddly upbeat. Does that make sense?   Consumer hard data. March retail sales came in as expected, which is better than what the survey data suggested. But what will April show?  

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Policy guardrails. They turned up this week to do what they’re supposed to do. 2. Private credit shock absorber. The presence of private credit, in scale, is a welcome development in stressed markets. 3. Canada and Mexico. Our head of sovereign ratings, Joan Feldbaum-Vidra, provides some much-needed perspective on the fate of these two important trading partners.

This week, our 3 Things are: Tariff shock. It’s worse than expected. We’ll give you our updated thoughts around what it means for credit. What will the Fed do? We game out the reaction function. Economic defense. How well prepared are consumers and businesses for slowdown? We provide an updated view.  

This week, our 3 Things are: Recession risk. For those keeping score, we’ve gathered the views of a broad cross-section of forecasters. We’ll bring you up to speed on what they’re saying. C-suite sentiment surveys. There are divergent views. Time for credit. Performance data demonstrates the appeal of the asset class.    

This week, our 3 Things are: Strength into transition. New national accounts data is out, giving insight into how prepared the consumer and commercial sectors are as we head into “transition.” April 2. The day-trading partners receive their “number.” What will we learn?  Fed tea leaves. The much-anticipated March meeting. We’ll tell you what it means for credit. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Fed cuts. The decisions won’t be just data driven—it’ll be behavioral. 2.   Airline read-across. Markets and managements seem to disagree about the near-term outlook.   3.   Syndicated loan quality. There are some surprising developments in a recently released regulatory report.

This week, our 3 Things are: Stagflation risk. It’s not zero. Growth scare. How real is it?   Equities vs. credit. Where is the selling pressure?

This week, our 3 Things are: Cooling growth. Correction is just another word for normalization. Jobs’ sentiment shift. This is worth keeping an eye on. Technical strength. Helping you get comfortable with tight spreads.

This week, our 3 Things are: Homebuilder blues. This engine of growth is slowing. Walmart guidance. What it says about the consumer. Tight spreads. They should be wider, right? Well …

This week, our 3 Things are: Euphoria downside. The not so silver lining to optimism. M&A downdraft. What it means for credit.  10-year direction. Where it’s headed. 

This week, our 3 Things are: Tariff time. We’ll provide some perspective on how to dimension this 130-year-old risk. Credit’s iPhone moment. Two heavyweights tell us we’re at an inflection point.  Earnings check-up. We’ll give an updated view of that which underpins just about every asset class in credit.

This week, our 3 Things are: Blackstone blowout. What’s the read across? GDP miss. Peel that onion and you’ll find some good and some not so good. Default forecasts. Our own Eric Rosenthal will tell you where we’re headed.

This week, our 3 Things are: Labor risks. In search of Goldilocks. Tariff time. McKinley’s revenge. Forecasts. On the economy and the S&P, there is remarkable consensus.

This week, our 3 Things are:  Inauguration bluster. Don’t expect nuance on Monday.  Big bank credit color. Nothing new here is great news.   Sentiment shift. Small Business’s clouds have lifted.

This week, our 3 Things are: 10-year blues. We assess the impact of an unwelcome spike. Uncertainty. It’s returned—what does that mean for valuations? Credit card default rates. Just how worrisome?  

This week, our 3 Things are: Peak Trump. Are we there yet? Animal spirits. The NFIB survey suggests it’s real. Debt warning. The BIS issues a sobering missive.

This week, our 3 Things are: The risk to spreads. Remember, no one likes inflation. The threat of U.S. exceptionalism. Is it the mother of all bubbles? Holiday spending. Consumers and retailers have differing views.

This week, our 3 Things are: Chinese volatility. Its economic struggles are a double-edged sword to risk markets. Private credit’s runway. It’s significantly under-allocated, but not likely to stay that way. Bank lending. They’ve got money to go, as long as you’re on the right side of our “Two Economies.”   

This week, our 3 Things are: Animal spirits. Reward, then risk. Mid-market loan quality. KBRA’s latest research reveals an interesting turn. Higher for Longer II? The rates outlook comes with a cost.    

This week, our 3 Things are: The U.S. consumer. Is that remarkable resilience about to slow? D.R. Horton. The story behind the miss. Bush/Gore redux? Tuesday is not likely to be the end of this election.  

This week, our 3 Things are: U.S. exceptionalism. What’s driving it? Reality check. We’ll check in on two broad-based barometers of economic growth. Illiquidity premium. Here’s how Blackstone sees it.