Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Global economic divergence. Exposure to China and Russia continue to play a role. 2. Macy’s earnings. The retailing bellwether had a lot to say about the U.S. consumer. 3. Credit risk and reward. By one measure, it hasn’t looked this good in a long time.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Higher for longer. Back to normal. Do you remember normal? 2. Apollo on secular change in credit markets. It makes a lot of sense. 3. NAIC’s (E) Committee memo. A step in the right direction, but you need to stay on top of this story.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Consumer spending. Brookings has a provocative perspective. 2. Airline reality. Watch margins as demand normalizes and costs remain elevated. 3. Pricing power. The pendulum is beginning to swing back.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. The biggest risks to credit. 2. Banks + Fed. A rare, one-two tightening force. 3. KBRA DLD default forecast. Eric Rosenthal joins to elaborate.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. The rise in stocks. Is it threatening credit spreads? 2. The New York Times says credit markets are creaking. We’ll have a look. 3. Economic divergence. Beware of focusing only on the aggregate.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Recession risk. From the Trade’s perspective. 2. Tightening the box. It’s tougher to get a consumer loan. 3. Capital One’s color on the consumer. Always insightful.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. That CPI report. Just how shocking was it? 2. Jobs market. Disinflation and low joblessness? 3. Revenge spend. Is it fading?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Distressed credit diverges from spreads. Does that make sense? 2. Consumer sentiment bounces. Perspective is important. 3. Corporate earnings growth. It is important to understand what has been driving it.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Midyear observations. Risk is very well bid. 2. Second half valuation drivers. We’ll go through a point-by-point rundown. 3. Deflationary force reversal. What does it do to cost structures?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Exuberance. Is it rational or irrational? 2. Freight recession. It’s real, and we’re not out of it yet. 3. Credit contraction. It’s happening, and it leaves a mark.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. The “super hawkish skip.” Here’s what it means for credit. 2. AT1s are back. And they should be. 3. Default dynamics. What’s relevant in this cycle?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Excess profits. We should not be surprised when they get competed away. 2. Uncertainty. No shortage of divergent views of where we’re headed. 3. Services’ weakness. It’s here, and that’s good and bad for credit.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Corporate earnings growth. It’s holding up better than some have forecast. Here’s why. 2. Consumer spending. The latest data suggests that changes are afoot. 3. S&P walks back proposed changes to its insurance methodology. Here’s why broad-based credit investors should care.

This week, our 3 Things are: Regional banks. How irrational is the selling pressure? Bank exposure to commercial real estate. It is often overstated and misunderstood. ​Homebuilders. Cyclical or growth story?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Cost of capital. What does its rise mean for credit? 2. U.S. consumers. Will they continue to spend? 3. Strong demand for credit. Why is it happening at this point of the credit cycle?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Inflection point. We are at one, we’ll tell you which way we’re headed. 2. Big bank color. What are the largest lenders seeing? 3. Ed Altman weighs in. He’s worried about one thing. We’ll clue you in.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. CarMax and Albertsons. What do they say about consumer sentiment? 2. Credit crunch. While we wait for the SLOOS, here’s an early look. 3. Recession probabilities. Can 100% equal 35%?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Community and regional bank business model. We examine it. 2. Bad news rising. Is this now a trend? 3. Banking crisis. Jamie Dimon says it’s not over. We’ll have a look.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.Market sentiment. It’s fluid. 2. Earnings season is back. What will the banks say? 3. Chinese growth. It’s positive … right?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.Protecting bank depositors. We think that’s happening ... 2. Uncertainty. It’s back and it’s unwelcome. 3. AT1s. Is this the end of a market?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. The glass is suddenly half empty. We’ll walk you through what’s changed. 2. Consumer spending. How long can it continue? 3. Silver linings. John McEnroe might say, “You can’t be serious!” But they’re there.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Long and variable lags. Are markets priced for them? 2. Event risk. How should we view it in this environment? 3. High yield. Is there value at this point?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Private credit. What's behind the growth? 2. Consumer expectations. Just how meaningful are they? 3. Housing. The latest in this all-important leading indicator.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Walmart earnings. Its forward guidance is not the stuff of no landing. 2. Larry Summers. How to avoid a Wile E. Coyote moment. 3. Affordable energy. Remember what comes down can go up.