US Economy with Fexingo: American GDP, Federal Spending, and Domestic Markets

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into a startling milestone: for the first time, annual US federal debt service costs have crossed $1 trillion. With the ten-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.5 percent and the Fed funds rate at 3.65 percent, interest on the national debt now consumes nearly a fifth of federal revenue. Lucas breaks down how rising yields on refinanc...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the surprising May 2026 PPI report, which showed wholesale prices rising 1.1 percent month-over-month — double expectations — driven by a surge in energy costs. They trace how producer-price inflation is transmitting to consumer goods, why small and mid-sized businesses are feeling the squeeze more than large corporations, and what...

The April JOLTS report showed job openings surging from 6.9 million to 7.6 million — a 10.6 percent jump that caught most economists off guard. Lucas and Luna break down what drove the increase, how it fits with a still-tight labor market, and why the Fed is watching this number closely as it weighs its next rate move. They explore sector-level shifts in openings, quits, and hires, and what the da...

Job openings surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, a dramatic 10.6% jump from March. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS report to understand what's driving this rebound—sector by sector, and why it matters for inflation and the Fed. They compare the current labor market to the pre-pandemic era, explore the quits rate, and ask whether this is a sign of resilience or a warning sign of wage pressure. S...

In Episode 50 of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking anomaly in the June 2026 economic data: real average hourly earnings are rising for the first time in over two years. With CPI at 4.2% annually and average hourly earnings up to $37.50, the gap is narrowing. They explore why this is happening—tight labor markets, sectoral shifts toward higher-paying service jobs, and the...

The Russell 2000 is up 3.1% over the past week while the Nasdaq is down 0.2%. Lucas and Luna explore the rotation out of mega-cap tech into small- and mid-cap stocks, driven by the ECB rate hike, cooling inflation expectations, and a narrowing Treasury yield curve. They discuss why small caps historically outperform when the yield curve steepens, and whether this rally has legs given the 4.2% CPI...

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been treading water since early June 2026, but the Russell 2000 small-cap index jumped 3.3% in the past five trading days. In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine why small caps are rallying: a narrowing Treasury yield curve, cooling core inflation, and expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady. They drill into the 10-year Treasury yiel...

Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 Producer Price Index report—up 1.1%, double expectations—and trace the surge in energy costs through to small business net margins. They explain why wholesale inflation matters more than CPI for Main Street, how the 10-year breakeven rate is falling even as PPI spikes, and why the transmission from input costs to consumer prices has never been faster. With fres...

The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 on June 11, 2026, a direct response to surging energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why this matters for US markets, from the Treasury yield curve to the dollar and Fed policy. They examine how the ECB's 25-basis-point hike, combined with hotter-than-expected US wholesale prices, is reshapi...

On June 11, 2026, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, driven by energy price surges linked to geopolitical tensions. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore what an ECB rate hike means for American investors, US Treasury yields, and the dollar. They break down the mechanics of the yield curve response, the ten-year Treasury note at 4.47 percent, and how U...

Episode 44 of US Economy with Fexingo digs into the narrowing gap between short-term and long-term Treasury yields. As of June 11, 2026 the 2-year Treasury yield sits at 4.54 percent and the 10-year at 5.03 percent. Lucas explains what flattening means for banks the housing market and the Fed's next move. Luna points out how consumer inflation at a three-year high of 4.2 percent complicates the pi...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 CPI report, which showed consumer prices rising 4.2 percent annually — the highest in three years. They explore the specific drivers behind the spike, with a focus on energy prices and shelter costs. Lucas explains why the core inflation reading was less alarming and what the Federal Reserve is likely watching. Luna...

The first quarter of 2026 saw real GDP growth jump to an annualised 1.6 percent, up from just 0.5 percent in the previous quarter. Lucas and Luna break down what drove the rebound — from a surge in job openings to stabilising consumer spending — and why the 1.6 percent figure still signals a sluggish expansion. They also examine the role of sticky core inflation and the Fed's cautious stance, and...

The US economy is growing, unemployment is low, and wages are rising — so why are American households feeling worse about their finances than at any point since July 2022? In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows a sharp drop in consumers' year-ahead outlook on household income and spending. They connect the data to the lag eff...

In episode 40 of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dissect a surprising disconnect: the US economy is still adding jobs and GDP is growing, yet a New York Fed survey shows household financial worries are at their highest since July 2022. They explore the gap between macro headlines and kitchen-table reality, focusing on how rising long-term unemployment, a flattening wage floor, and the cumu...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore the puzzling stall in US home prices in mid-2026. Despite inventory remaining near historic lows, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index has posted three consecutive months of flat to declining prices. The hosts dissect the dual pressures: mortgage rates hovering above 7 percent, which have priced out a record share of first...

Lucas and Luna explore the surprising surge in US manufacturing construction spending, which has hit $250 billion annually for the first time. They break down the CHIPS Act tailwinds, the new tariff environment, and what it means for domestic supply chains and job creation. With the S&P 500 down 2.8% in the last five days and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.54%, the hosts ask whether industrial po...

Episode 37 of US Economy with Fexingo dives into the Biden administration's new proposed tariffs on 60 economies over forced labor trade practices, announced June 4, 2026. Lucas and Luna unpack the economic logic behind the shift — from broad-based China tariffs to targeted enforcement using customs data and supply chain audits. They discuss how this affects US import costs, the 4.5 percent 10-yea...

Lucas and Luna examine the shifting landscape of US tariff policy in 2026, focusing on the newly proposed tariffs on 60 economies over forced labor trade practices announced this week. They discuss how this marks a significant escalation from previous targeted tariffs, the potential impact on supply chains and consumer prices, and what it means for the broader US economy. The hosts break down the...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the mounting pressure on US bank profits in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield pushing toward 5% and the Fed funds rate at 3.63%, banks are earning less on their massive bond portfolios while paying more to depositors. Lucas breaks down the mechanics of net interest margin compression, using JPMorgan Chase and Bank of Ame...

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 5.25% for over a year, but consumer spending hasn't cracked. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine why the American consumer keeps spending despite the highest borrowing costs in two decades. They look at two key factors: the lock-in effect from low-rate mortgages and auto loans that insulates 60% of households from higher rates, and the strong labor ma...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into the staggering $18 trillion consumer debt milestone reached in 2026. They break down the composition—mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student debt—and explain why the ratio of debt to disposable income actually tells a different story than the headline number. The conversation covers the role of higher interest rates, the sh...

Consumer debt in the United States has crossed $18 trillion for the first time. Lucas and Luna dig into what's driving the surge—think auto loans, student debt, and credit cards—and why it's not the same kind of danger as 2008. With the Fed holding rates above 3.5 percent, borrowing costs are squeezing households unevenly. They look at who's struggling most, the role of subprime auto loans, and ho...

New data shows long-term unemployment is surging in the US even as job openings hit 7.6 million. Lucas and Luna unpack the structural mismatch — why workers over 27 weeks without a job are being left behind, how skills atrophy compounds the problem, and what it means for the Fed's inflation fight and the real economy. They drill into the numbers from the April JOLTS report and the latest jobless c...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the May 2026 ADP private payrolls report, which came in at 122,000 — stronger than the consensus estimate of 95,000. They explore what drove the surprise: a rebound in construction and manufacturing hiring despite the ongoing Iran war and new tariff proposals, and a pickup in leisure and hospitality as consumers shift spending to...