US Economy with Fexingo: American GDP, Federal Spending, and Domestic Markets

In this episode, Lucas and Luna drill into a surprising data point: the US imported 27 percent fewer solar panels in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year, despite a record pace of renewable energy installations. They trace the cause to the Biden administration's expanded tariffs on Southeast Asian manufacturers, which were meant to protect domestic producers but have instea...

Episode 103 of US Economy with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna explore a surprising bright spot in the US economy: service exports. While goods trade deficits dominate headlines, America's exports of software, consulting, and financial services hit a record $1.1 trillion annualized in Q2 2026. The hosts drill into why the US has a comparative advantage in high-value services, how the weaker dollar is boos...

The ten-year breakeven inflation rate has dropped to 2.23 percent, even as real GDP growth accelerates and the unemployment rate falls. Lucas and Luna explore how this divergence between inflation expectations and hard economic data is puzzling markets. They examine the role of sticky core PCE at 2.8 percent, the Fed's holding pattern with the funds rate at 3.63 percent, and what falling breakeven...

Lucas and Luna dig into the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest rent and owners' equivalent rent data, which show shelter inflation hovering near 5 percent year-over-year despite the Fed's rate hikes. They examine why rents aren't moderating faster, how the multifamily construction boom is finally delivering supply to Sun Belt markets like Austin and Phoenix, and why the official CPI rent index lag...

In this milestone 100th episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore a bright spot in today's economy: surging labor productivity. With real GDP growing at 2.1 percent annualized while payrolls add just 57,000 jobs in June, output per worker is climbing. The hosts drill into the drivers — AI adoption, manufacturing automation, and a leaner post-pandemic workforce — and ask whether th...

The US economy is growing at 2.1% annualized, unemployment is 4.2%, and payrolls just added 57,000 jobs. Yet the Conference Board's consumer confidence index has fallen for three straight months. Lucas and Luna explore this divergence, focusing on the 'vibecession' narrative and how high-income versus low-income consumers are experiencing the economy differently. They discuss the role of persisten...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a quietly flashing economic warning sign: US business inventories. As of May 2026, the inventory-to-sales ratio hit 1.38, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. Lucas explains how bloated stockpiles at retailers and wholesalers signal a demand slowdown, referencing the recent 57,000 payrolls miss and the Fed's rate stance. Luna pushes back on whether...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore how new US tariff structures are driving a fundamental reorganisation of global supply chains. They zero in on the surprising rise in nearshoring to Mexico, which overtook China as America's top trading partner in early 2026. Drawing on the latest data — including a 2.1% annualized real GDP growth rate and a 4.2% unemployment rate...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising divergence in wage growth across US industries in mid-2026. While average hourly earnings ticked up to $37.60 in June, that headline masks a widening gap: service-sector wages are rising at 4.5% year-over-year, but goods-producing wages have slowed to just 2.8%. The hosts drill into the Bureau of Labor Statistics' la...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the startling drop in the US labor force participation rate, which fell to its lowest level in 50 years (excluding the COVID-19 pandemic). They explore why workers are leaving the job market despite a seemingly strong economy, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% and over 7.5 million job openings. The hosts discuss the role of long...

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs in early July 2026, but the Russell 2000 is down 0.5% over the same period. Lucas and Luna dig into the growing divergence between large-cap and small-cap stocks, exploring why smaller companies are struggling despite a seemingly strong economy. They examine the role of higher interest rates, sticky inflation, and shifting consumer spending, using real data...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore how rising consumer debt is altering spending patterns and economic growth. With total household debt surpassing $20 trillion for the first time in early 2026, and credit card balances hitting a record high of $1.3 trillion, consumers are increasingly diverting income to debt payments rather than discretionary purchases. The hosts...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising drop in the labor force participation rate to its lowest level in 50 years outside the COVID era. With the unemployment rate at 4.2% and nonfarm payrolls adding only 57,000 jobs in June 2026, they explore why workers are leaving—or not entering—the workforce. They break down the demographic and structural factors,...

In Episode 91 of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising labor force participation rate drop to 49.8 percent in June 2026, the lowest in 50 years outside of COVID. They explore why workers are dropping out despite 4.2 percent unemployment and 215,000 initial claims. The conversation covers discouraged workers, early retirements, and the impact of the World Cup on payrolls....

Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but powerful shift in the US economy: consumer spending is rotating away from goods and back toward services at a pace not seen since 2021. They examine the latest personal consumption data, which shows services spending rising at a 4.2% annualized rate in Q2 2026 while goods spending barely grew 1.1%. Lucas explains how pandemic-era savings are being spent on trave...

The US labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years, excluding the pandemic era. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 jobs report, which showed payrolls grew by just 57,000 while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent. They explore why workers are dropping out — from discouraged job seekers to early retirements and caregiving pressures — and...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a paradox in the mid-2026 US labor market: payrolls growth slowed to just 57,000 in June, yet JOLTS job openings actually ticked up to 7.6 million. They explore what's driving the disconnect—including a rise in long-term vacancies in healthcare and hospitality, the impact of the World Cup adding 40,000 temporary jobs, and falling labor force participation....

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the odd disconnect in America's housing market in mid-2026: housing starts have fallen to an annualized 1.28 million units, down 12% from a year ago, even as household formation stays strong and the national vacancy rate sits near a 40-year low. They dig into three specific forces behind the stall—sticky construction financing cost...

The US dollar has dropped 5% since April 2026, puzzling many given the economy is still growing. Lucas and Luna dig into the data: the Fed cutting rates while other central banks hold, a narrowing interest rate differential, and a shift in global reserve demand. They also look at how a weaker dollar is boosting exports and multinational earnings, and why this might be a good thing for the stock ma...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine a surprising divergence in the American economy: while consumer confidence is plunging and housing starts are stalling, nonresidential fixed investment is surging at a double-digit pace. They drill into the latest GDP data, which shows real GDP growth accelerating to 2.1 percent annualized in Q1 2026, driven largely by spending on...

The US dollar has been sliding against major currencies even as GDP grows at 2.1 percent and unemployment holds at 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: why a strong economy is actually hurting the greenback. They explain how the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, narrowing interest rate differentials with Europe and Japan, and a shift in global reserve preferences are driving the dollar lower...

The Federal Reserve is in a bind as mid-2026 arrives. Core PCE inflation hit 3.4 percent in May, the highest since October 2023, yet the unemployment rate is stuck at 4.3 percent and job openings rebounded sharply in April to 7.6 million. Lucas and Luna unpack why the Fed can't cut rates despite a slowing economy, drawing on the latest data and a historical comparison to the 1970s stop-go cycle. T...

The US unemployment rate is at 4.3 percent and job openings just jumped to 7.6 million, yet the prime-age labor force participation rate has been stuck below 63 percent since early 2025. Lucas and Luna dig into the specific demographics driving the stall — prime-age men aged 25-54 who have left the workforce permanently, women whose recovery has plateaued, and the structural mismatch between avail...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, the longest stretch on record. But in June 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.37 percent, the 2-year at 3.66 percent, and the spread has flattened to near zero. Lucas and Luna unpack what an uninversion typically signals—and why this time might be different. They break down the mechanics: the Fed's rate cuts, the term premium, and what bo...

Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 core PCE inflation reading of 3.4 percent — the highest since October 2023. They explore why the Fed's preferred gauge is accelerating, which components are driving the increase, and what this means for the path of interest rates and the economy. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.37 percent, the hosts discuss whether...