US Economy with Fexingo: American GDP, Federal Spending, and Domestic Markets

Spot trucking rates have dropped 12 percent since March 2026, hitting levels unseen since the 2023 freight recession. Lucas and Luna break down why this is happening: overcapacity from a 2024-2025 buying spree, a shift in consumer spending from goods to services, and the impact of the recent Strait of Hormuz tensions on fuel costs. They zero in on one number — the national average spot rate per mi...

Unemployment is at 4.3%, payrolls are adding jobs, and GDP is growing at 2.1%. So why did the Conference Board's consumer confidence index drop for the third straight month in June 2026? In this episode, Lucas and Luna drill into the growing disconnect between hard economic data and how Americans actually feel. They break down the role of sticky core inflation hitting 3.4%, the psychological weigh...

Average hourly earnings hit $37.50 in May 2026, but the headline number masks a growing split. Lucas and Luna dig into the data: why lower-wage hospitality workers are seeing 5% plus raises while white-collar pay in tech and finance is barely keeping pace with 3.4% core inflation. They explore how the shift ties to tight labor supply in leisure and hospitality, the post-ZIRP hangover for salaried...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 core PCE inflation reading of 3.4 percent — the highest since October 2023. They explore why services inflation remains sticky, how shelter costs are still pushing prices up, and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and markets pricing in no cuts until late 2026, the hosts...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest core PCE inflation reading—3.4 percent in May, the highest since October 2023. They explain why the Fed's preferred gauge is sticky despite a cooling labor market, how services inflation is driving the number, and what it means for rate cuts in 2026. With the 10-year breakeven at 2.21 percent and the fed funds rate at 3...

Factory capacity utilization in the US has stalled at 82 percent for three months straight, far below the 85 percent level that typically signals a healthy industrial sector. Lucas and Luna dig into why this matters: it means factories aren't running full tilt, which holds back productivity and keeps inflation sticky. They look at the regional divide—Midwest plants idling while Sun Belt facilities...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the widening gap in unemployment rates across U.S. states in mid-2026. With the national unemployment rate stuck at 4.3 percent, Nevada boasts a rate near 3 percent while states like Alaska and Washington, D.C. hover above 5 percent. They discuss why Nevada is booming, the role of remote work and migration, and what the divergence says about structural chang...

On this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into a surprising market trend: small-cap stocks are outpacing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in June 2026. With the Russell 2000 up 2.4 percent over the past five days while the S&P is down 1 percent, they explore what's driving the rotation. Lucas breaks down the role of falling Treasury yields, the Fed's steady rate, and a potential shift...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, and in June 2026, the 2-year Treasury yield is 4.26 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.49 percent — a spread of just 23 basis points. Lucas and Luna break down what this prolonged inversion means for the economy, why it hasn't yet triggered a recession, and how the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.21 percent complicates the Fed's next mov...

S&P Global reports factory job cuts in June 2026 approaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis and the early pandemic. Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the cuts—slowing demand, high input costs, and the shift to automation—and what this signals for the broader economy. They examine the sectors most affected, the regional disparities, and whether this is a temporary blip or a...

Lucas and Luna explore why US bank lending standards are tightening in mid-2026, even as the Fed holds rates steady. With the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showing banks are pulling back on commercial and industrial loans, the hosts drill into what this means for small businesses and the broader economy. They connect the tightening to rising delinquency rates on commercial real estate loans a...

While GDP growth ticks up and unemployment stays low, a quieter squeeze is hitting corporate America: profit margins are compressing across multiple sectors. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data, including the divergence between headline GDP and real earnings per share growth, rising input costs from sticky service inflation, and the strategic responses from companies like Walmart and Delta. Th...

A record $19 trillion in household debt is changing how Americans spend. Lucas and Luna examine the shift from credit-fueled consumption to more cautious behavior, with auto loan delinquencies above 7 percent and credit card balances rising. They discuss how the Fed's rate decisions interact with consumer balance sheets, and why retail earnings now reflect a two-speed economy: bargain stores thriv...

New home construction in the US is stalling even though buyer demand remains robust. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the disconnect between housing starts data and market demand. They break down the latest May 2026 numbers showing starts down 5.2% year-over-year while single-family permits actually ticked up. Lucas points to builder sentiment surveys that reveal two big bottlenecks: skille...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into a surprising trend: US retail inventories are piling up even as consumer spending stays resilient. With the latest GDP data showing real GDP at $24.15 trillion and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate dipping below 2 percent for Q2, they examine why retailers like Target and Walmart are sitting on excess stock. Lucas breaks down th...

In April 2026, the JOLTS report showed job openings surged from 6.9 million to 7.6 million — a one-month jump of over 10 percent. Lucas and Luna break down what drove the spike, from hospitality rebounding in Nevada to construction hiring in Texas, and why the Fed might not see it as a green light for rate hikes. They also discuss how the unemployment rate stayed flat at 4.3 percent despite the su...

Lucas and Luna drill into the latest US GDP data from Q1 2026, where nominal output hit $31.8 trillion but real annualized growth slipped to just 1.6 percent. They explore the disconnect between robust federal spending and tepid economic expansion, focusing on how the $1 trillion debt service cost is crowding out productive investment. The episode examines the role of sticky core inflation—running...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the stubborn 5 percent service inflation that's keeping the Fed from cutting rates in mid-2026. With a 10-year breakeven inflation rate sitting at 2.25 and the Fed funds rate frozen at 3.63, Lucas explains why rent, healthcare, and auto insurance are still accelerating despite cooling goods prices. Luna challenges him on whether t...

Lucas and Luna examine a surprising divergence in US rental markets: while national rent inflation sits at 5.2 percent, cities like Austin and Phoenix see rents falling year-over-year, and high-cost coastal markets like New York and San Francisco continue climbing. They explore how pandemic-era construction booms, remote work shifts, and local zoning policies are reshaping the rental landscape. Sp...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising jump in US home equity lines of credit in spring 2026. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63% and mortgage rates above 6%, homeowners are tapping equity at levels not seen since 2008. Lucas breaks down the data: HELOC originations rose 18% year-over-year in Q1 2026, even as existing home sales remain depressed. Luna questions whether this signals co...

Medical debt has become the leading cause of consumer credit deterioration in the United States, surpassing student loans and auto debt. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine new data from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau showing that over 20 million Americans are currently carrying past-due medical bills on their credit reports, totaling roughly $88 billion. They drill into how these de...

New data shows US auto loan delinquencies have climbed to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. With used car prices falling and interest rates staying elevated, borrowers who bought vehicles during the pandemic shortage are now underwater on their loans. Lucas and Luna break down the numbers: subprime borrowers are missing payments at a 12.7% rate, up from 8.5% two years ago. They expl...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, hosts Lucas and Luna examine why US industrial capacity utilization has climbed to 82 percent in mid-2026, the highest level since 2018. They break down what this number means for inflation, business investment, and the Fed's next move. Lucas explains how the 82 percent threshold historically signals pricing pressure, and why this time might be different...

Episode 56 of US Economy with Fexingo dives into why rent inflation remains stuck at 5.2 percent annually even as overall CPI has eased. Lucas and Luna unpack the math behind shelter's 33 percent weight in CPI, the lag from market rents to official data, and why apartment construction booms in cities like Austin and Phoenix haven't yet shown up in the index. They also explore how the Fed's rate ho...

The Fed has held the federal funds rate at 3.63 percent since May, even as CPI hit a three-year high of 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into why: the central bank is watching core PCE, which sits at 2.6 percent—still above target but not accelerating. They break down the logic of 'wait and see' policy, the record $1 trillion debt service cost that constrains the Fed, and what the flat unemployment...