US Economy with Fexingo: American GDP, Federal Spending, and Domestic Markets

State tax revenues across the US are falling at the sharpest rate since the Great Financial Crisis. In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers: aggregate state tax collections dropped 8.2 percent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, led by a collapse in personal income tax receipts. They explore the three main drivers — a cooling labor market, falling c...

Episode 28 of US Economy with Fexingo: Lucas and Luna examine the surprising boom in corporate bond issuance in mid-2026. With the Fed holding rates steady and the yield curve steepening, companies are rushing to lock in borrowing before conditions tighten further. Lucas breaks down the numbers: over $400 billion in investment-grade bonds issued in the first five months of this year, up 22 percent...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising April JOLTS report that showed job openings surging to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years. They break down what's driving the increase—including reshoring in manufacturing and persistent demand in healthcare—and why the unemployment rate remains stuck at 4.3 percent despite the spike. The hosts discuss the...

In episode 26 of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine why the unemployment rate has been stuck at 4.3 percent for three months despite steady job growth. They break down the paradox of low hiring and low firing, using April 2026 data: nonfarm payrolls up 115,000, initial jobless claims at 215,000, and average hourly earnings rising to $37.40. The hosts explore how the 'great stay' pheno...

Lucas and Luna explore a surprising bright spot in the US economy: labor productivity is growing at its fastest pace in over a decade. With real GDP growth at 1.6 percent and nonfarm payrolls edging up, output per hour worked is rising sharply. They break down the drivers — from AI adoption in logistics and manufacturing to a tight labor market forcing automation — and what it means for corporate...

Job openings are falling, but workers aren't quitting. In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore the 'Great Stay' — the flip side of the Great Resignation. They look at the numbers: JOLTS openings dropped to 6.9 million in March, while quits fell to 3.1 million, the lowest since 2020. Why are workers hunkering down? Lucas explains how the Iran war, inflation scar tissue, a...

US companies are sitting on over $3 trillion in cash, the highest share of corporate profits relative to GDP in decades. Lucas and Luna examine why businesses are hoarding rather than investing in plants, equipment, or higher wages. They unpack the record profit share of GDP — currently 12.8% — and how it's linked to weak capital expenditure, sluggish productivity growth, and a labor market that's...

US companies are sitting on over $3 trillion in cash — a record. But instead of investing in factories, R&D, or hiring, they're buying back stock and parking money in Treasuries. Lucas and Luna dig into why corporate balance sheets have become a drag on GDP growth, how the tax code incentivizes hoarding, and what it would take to unlock that capital. They break down the numbers: how much cash the...

Lucas and Luna break down the economic impact of the Iran conflict on American households, focusing on the $450 annual energy cost increase revealed in a new CNBC report. They connect this to persistent energy inflation, the Fed's dilemma, and what it means for consumer spending and the broader economy. With core PCE at 3.3% and the Fed stuck at 3.62%, they explore why this geopolitical shock is h...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down a stark number: the average US household is paying an extra $450 per year on gas and energy due to the Iran conflict. They trace how this war premium is feeding into the core inflation reading the Fed watches most closely — which hit 3.3% in April. With energy inflation more persistent than expected, they ask whether the Fed can afford to cut rates at all...

Lucas and Luna break down how rising energy prices—up nearly $450 per household on average amid the Iran conflict—are reshaping consumer behavior and inflation dynamics in spring 2026. With core PCE hitting 3.3% annually and the Fed on hold, they explore the 'double scar' of past inflation and current geopolitical shocks. Using fresh data from the May 2026 readings, they explain why energy inflati...

Lucas and Luna dig into a striking divide taking shape in the US housing market in spring 2026. While the S&P 500 sits near 7,560 and the Nasdaq has gained 2.4% in the last week, the real estate picture is far from uniform. New-home sales are booming — up double digits year over year — while existing-home sales are stuck near three-decade lows. Lucas explains the structural reasons: homeowners loc...

Lucas and Luna unpack the record $3.1 trillion in cash held by nonfinancial US corporations, revealed in the latest Fed Flow of Funds data. With nominal GDP at $31.8 trillion and real GDP growing at just 1.6%, companies are hoarding cash despite high interest rates. They explore why firms are reluctant to invest, the role of uncertainty around trade policy, and what this means for the economy. Luc...

Lucas and Luna explore a surprising labor market shift in May 2026: wage growth for the bottom quartile of earners is outpacing the top quartile for the first time in decades. They break down data from the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker, showing that workers in leisure and hospitality saw 6.2% annual wage gains versus just 2.8% for managers in professional services. They discuss why this is happening —...

Episode 15 digs into a striking economic trend: US construction spending on manufacturing facilities hit a record $210 billion annualized rate in early 2026, up more than 70 percent from before the pandemic. Lucas and Luna explore how tariffs and supply-chain shifts are driving a factory-building boom, particularly in semiconductors and electric vehicles. They break down where the money is going,...

Lucas and Luna dive into the latest GDP data and discover a striking shift: corporate profits have risen to 12.1 percent of GDP, the highest since the 1940s. They explore how profit margins have widened even as consumer sentiment hits record lows and the Fed holds rates steady. The episode examines whether this profit boom is sustainable, what it means for workers and investors, and how it ties in...

Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising data point from the May 2026 economic snapshot: despite weak consumer sentiment and sticky inflation, US manufacturing construction spending has surged to new highs. They explore how tariffs and the reshoring push are driving factory investment, particularly in semiconductors and clean energy, and what this means for the broader economy. With the S&P 500 hittin...

With the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.56% while the 2-year stays flat, the yield curve is steepening for the first time in months. Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the move: a weaker consumer, the Fed stuck at 3.6%, and inflation expectations still sticky at 2.4%. They explain why a steeper curve is usually a recovery signal — but why this time it might mean something different. Plu...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the current bond market inversion in May 2026, where the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.56% while the 2-year yield is at 4.26%, creating a 30-basis-point inversion. They explore what this inversion signals about the economy's trajectory, how it differs from past inversions, and what it means for investors. The hosts use live data—including the Dow at 50...

Consumer sentiment hit a record low in May 2026, yet the US economy keeps growing. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the paradox of rising prices and resilient spending. They dig into the latest CPI and PCE data, the disconnect between sentiment and actual consumption, and what it means for the Fed's next move. They also explore how Americans are shifting spending patterns—trading down on go...

In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore a striking disconnect in the spring of 2026: real GDP is growing at 2 percent annualized, but consumer sentiment hit a record low in May. They dig into two key forces keeping the economy afloat—business investment and government spending—and ask whether this growth pattern can last. Lucas points to nonresidential fixed investment r...

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hit a record low in May 2026, with inflation fears spiking due to the Iran war. Lucas and Luna examine what's driving the gloom—gasoline, eggs, and rent—and why the disconnect between strong GDP growth and consumer pessimism matters for the Fed and markets. They discuss core CPI at 335.4, the 4.3% unemployment rate, and whether the 'vibecession'...

The Russell 2000 is up 3.4 percent in the past five days while the S&P 500 has gained just 1 percent. Lucas and Luna drill into one specific driver: falling Treasury yields are rewiring the math for smaller domestic companies. With the ten-year yield dropping to 4.56 percent and the two-year at 4.26 percent, the yield curve is steepening in a way that historically favors small caps over mega-cap t...

The S&P 500 is up but the Russell 2000 is soaring. Lucas and Luna break down why small-cap stocks are outperforming large caps in May 2026 — and what it says about the US economy. With the Fed holding rates at 3.6%, a flattening yield curve, and consumer sentiment hitting a record low, the rotation into smaller companies might signal something bigger. They look at one driver: the AI economy's shif...

With Kevin Warsh set to be sworn in as Fed chair on Friday May 22, 2026, the US economy faces a peculiar standoff: the Fed funds rate has been flat at 3.64 percent since April, while GDP growth rebounded to 2.0 percent and consumer sentiment hit a record low. Lucas and Luna examine what the data actually says about the next move — and why the bond market might be sending a clearer signal than the...