Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Credit - No Hiding Place in Investment Grade Bonds. IG and HY both -9% this Year. 09.05.2022 12:00 ↓

And the $ rampage continues.

Bank of England’s Recession Forecast - and a bleak day for markets 06.05.2022 12:57 ↓

Treasuries, equities, the £ - all sell off. Only gilts buck the global trend.

Roundnumberitis: 3% US Treasury Bond Yields 03.05.2022 8:04 ↓

And 1% 10 year bunds too.

Season 7 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds 25.04.2022 14:21 ↓

Real yields higher, credit weaker.

The End of Crazy Quarter in Bond World (and the end of Season 6) 31.03.2022 11:05 ↓

We end Q1 with inflation at career highs for many (most?) bond managers. Also goodbye to a couple of my bond salespeople - including one whose surname I get, Freudianly, wrong. 🤦

Negative Bond Yields - RIP? ☠️ 28.03.2022 8:05 ↓

There’s not much left in the world of negative bond yields after Powell’s comments last week…

Happy 2nd Birthday to UJWOB 24.03.2022 11:34 ↓

Sunak isn’t going to like today’s headlines. All about the cost of living crisis and collapsing real incomes.

J-Pow to Bond Market: Drop Dead 22.03.2022 10:55 ↓

A kick in the teeth for Treasuries as Powell talks of even more rate hikes from the Fed.

Bank of England’s Dovish Hike. Fed hikes for the first time since 2018. 18.03.2022 11:50 ↓

And Russia appears to have paid a $ bond coupon. No default yet.

Fed Hike Day (probably) 16.03.2022 9:53 ↓

And also Russia Default Day (probably).

Risk Assets Bounce and the € Recovers Too 10.03.2022 9:22 ↓

The market prices in one ECB rate hike for 2022 once more.

Oil Hits $130. Recession Coming? 07.03.2022 11:30 ↓

And the debate around weapons and ESG investment.

Biggest Rally in Gilts & Bunds for a Decade. And US$ Funding Costs Are Rising. 02.03.2022 10:11 ↓

And a regular reminder to follow @adam_tooze in Twitter.

Latest on Russia and Sanctions. And Germany’s New Military Spending Policy 28.02.2022 10:03 ↓

Russian reserves and the latest sanctions news.

Russia 🇷🇺 invades Ukraine 🇺🇦 24.02.2022 8:08 ↓

Russian bonds fall 10-25 points this morning.

What Bonds Did On My Winter Holidays ❄️ 21.02.2022 8:10 ↓

A flight to quality week, as Russian invasion fears mounted.

7.5% US CPI. Another upside surprise. Also Italy. 10.02.2022 11:16 ↓

10 year Treasuries approaching 2%…

Bond Tantrum 😱 07.02.2022 10:56 ↓

The ECB, the Bank of England, and then the US jobs data - one shock after another. Bonds sold off bigly.

🇪🇺ECB Hiking Cycle🇪🇺. And the Bank of England announces it’s selling ALL its £ corporate bonds. 04.02.2022 9:07 ↓

Market is now expecting 2 rate hikes from the ECB this year! HUGE moves in bonds and currencies.

5 Fed Hikes Priced for 2022 01.02.2022 7:07 ↓

And a look at bond market performance so far this year.

Morrissey/Terry Pratchet/J-Pow 27.01.2022 9:42 ↓

Hawkish Powell at the Fed last night.

Default Expectations Rising in Russia and Ukraine, and “Safe Havens” Rally 24.01.2022 8:25 ↓

Bund yields are down 10 bps on last week.

🇩🇪 German Bund Yields Turn +ve 🇩🇪 19.01.2022 9:03 ↓

You get paid for lending to Germany again.

🚨7%🚨 17.01.2022 9:54 ↓

US inflation hit 7% last month, the highest since 1982. Bond markets have sold off again, and credit is having its worse ever start to a year.

Season 6: Welcome to 2022 - and a huge bond sell-off 11.01.2022 8:29 ↓

Real yields are rising, and the market is now expecting 4 Fed hikes this year.