Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

The LAST Ever UJWOB 09.07.2024 17:24 ↓

Love from Jim x

The End Of Season 13 Of UJWOB 28.06.2024 11:05 ↓

A look at Biden’s awful first Presidential debate with Trump, and his 20% fall in betting markets overnight.

Household Debt v Government Debt - It’s Different 27.06.2024 9:43 ↓

And Australia may be out of the cricket (just enjoying typing that) but its inflation numbers sent bond markets lower yesterday.

‘Finely Balanced’ - No BoE Cut, But It’s On The Way. 21.06.2024 9:57 ↓

And a look at Noah Smith’s views on ‘elite overproduction’.

UK Inflation Back To Target. And A Look At The Deutsche Bank Annual Default Study. 19.06.2024 11:02 ↓

The ‘boiling frog’ impact of higher rates on credit is starting to be felt, but no big default rise until 2025.

European Credit Spreads Widen On France Fears 17.06.2024 9:00 ↓

And China leaves rates on hold, despite weak house price news.

Zero Inflation in May, Bond Rally Underway 14.06.2024 11:23 ↓

But French assets are really struggling, and credit is starting to weaken.

French Bond Markets Wobble. And No Bank of England Reserves Interest Grab From Labour. 12.06.2024 12:58 ↓

Also: a smorgasbord of other bond market ephemera.

What A Week That Was! Elections Hit EM Assets, ECB’s ‘Unhappy’ Cut, And Bumper US Jobs. 10.06.2024 11:21 ↓

US rate cut now not fully priced until December.

EU Bonds Going Into Global Indices 31.05.2024 10:27 ↓

Could mean less demand for traditional EZ sovereign debt, especially as France risks a downgrade from S&P.

Who’s Best For The Economy - Labour or Conservatives? 28.05.2024 11:27 ↓

Also: credit spreads are tight and stable. It was quiet - too quiet…. And CMBS takes its first big hit since the GFC.

Bank Of England To Skip A June Rate Cut 24.05.2024 10:26 ↓

And it’s not just because of July’s General Election - service sector inflation is too strong. 💪

Doctor Copper Makes A Record High 20.05.2024 9:02 ↓

Does that mean global growth is reaccelerating?

Equity Yields Are Way Below Credit Yields. Does That Make Sense? 15.05.2024 12:11 ↓

And Biden puts 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.

US Economic Surprises Rolling Over? 13.05.2024 9:07 ↓

Aggregate US stats are now disappointing- although the rest of the world is doing OK.

Greenspan, ‘Atlas Shrugged’, & 2001 A Space Odyssey 08.05.2024 10:59 ↓

Also: Swedish rate cut, and no more excess savings left in America.

US Employment Weakens, Bonds Rally 03.05.2024 8:59 ↓

2 year US Treasury bond yields drop from 5% to 4.75% in 2 days.

Why Economics Needs To Be Sexier 01.05.2024 10:52 ↓

And H5N1 (Bird Flu) starts to get attention in financial markets. Gulp.

Gold vs Real Yields 29.04.2024 11:20 ↓

Also: yen intervention at last? And US immigration at 3 million per year.

US Growth Slows Sharply in Q1, But Bonds Don’t Like PCE Inflation. 5% 2 Year Treasury Yields. 26.04.2024 10:49 ↓

And Japanese inflation goes the other way, with a downside shock.

The Tortured Bond Investors Department 22.04.2024 10:21 ↓

Ben Bernanke v the Bank of England.

UJWOB Season 13: Bond Markets Now More Pessimistic Than The Fed On Rate Cuts 19.04.2024 11:32 ↓

And: Skyscraper - I Love You.

India 🇮🇳 Special: Bond Index Inclusion In June, And Economic Outperformance 27.03.2024 16:11 ↓

And RIP behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman.

Anniversaries Galore! And Has The Fed Changed Its Reaction Function? 25.03.2024 9:10 ↓

Looser Fed, so Barclays says ‘buy TIPS’.

Central Banks Getting Fidgety: Moves From Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan. 22.03.2024 12:18 ↓

And I take a look at Monetary Policy Rules like the Taylor Rule (Spoiler Alert: the Fed should cut now).