Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Finally - Good Inflation News For The First Time In Months. UK CPI Below Expectations. 20.03.2024 8:19 ↓

Also: CPI index rebalancing, corporate default rates, and the extreme injustice of the Nottingham Forest points deduction.

The End Of Negative Interest Rates in Japan 🇯🇵 18.03.2024 11:47 ↓

The BoJ is expected to hike for the first time since 2007 later this week. And the Fed might signal a higher r* via the ‘dot plot’ at this week’s FOMC.

Why Is The Last Mile The Hardest Mile? 14.03.2024 10:07 ↓

And in credit-land, the NIP (New Issue Premium) has turned negative!

The ‘Right Tail Risk’ Is Fading 11.03.2024 10:59 ↓

The latest US jobs numbers reinforced the market’s view that the economy is resilient, but not re-accelerating.

No Rabbits Left 🐇 For The UK 07.03.2024 12:25 ↓

What does the Budget mean for gilts? And how does ‘tipflation’ get measured in the CPI?

No Sign of Inflation Re-Accelerating In the PCE Deflator Data 29.02.2024 11:14 ↓

And a load of economic ephemera to keep you entertained. Includes a disconnect in the textbooks as to the causes of the Great Depression.

Larry Summers: A ‘Meaningful’ Chance Of A Fed Hike 26.02.2024 8:56 ↓

And the cost of getting your kids driving a car. A drag on economic growth?

Do NVIDIA’s Results Mean That r* Needs To Rise? 23.02.2024 9:18 ↓

The AI boom could raise the world’s cost of capital.

Fiscal Rules: Do Bond Investors Care? 21.02.2024 18:06 ↓

And some economics related pop and rock songs. More needed please!

‘Rishession’ For the UK 🇬🇧 19.02.2024 10:26 ↓

And the Nikkei approaches its 1989 all time time, having fallen by 81% in the meantime.

Government Bonds Start 2024 With A Bit Of A Kicking 09.02.2024 9:20 ↓

And more motorway related urban myths.

Is The Game Up For J-Pow As Trump Attacks? 04.02.2024 7:33 ↓

And US employment is still on 🔥.

Letter From America: the US Economic Outlook Live From Manhattan 28.01.2024 15:05 ↓

What’s the best New York song by the way? The LCD Soundsystem one? Velvet Underground’s Waiting For My Man? Fairytale of NY? Empire State of Mind? Don’t say Frank Sinatra.

How Italy 🇮🇹 Is Financing Its Budget Deficit: Grandma and Grandpa 19.01.2024 12:05 ↓

Also: a shock for the UK economy with a collapse in retail sales.

Why Do Americans Feel So Lousy About The US Economy? 16.01.2024 10:05 ↓

Growth is strong, inflation is back towards target, jobs are plentiful.

Un-Inversion. Upward Sloping Yield Curves Are Back! 12.01.2024 9:51 ↓

Lowest 2 year yields since May 2023, despite a stronger than expected CPI print.

Credit Starts 2024 on the Back Foot 08.01.2024 12:22 ↓

Huge supply wave in January.

Season 12 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds 05.01.2024 12:37 ↓

Election year - definitely. Soft landing year - maybe.

2024 Fixed Income Outlook: The Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds Special 14.12.2023 38:59 ↓

Man I go on a bit. The stuff about The Pogues is at 38 minutes if you can’t face the rest.

The End of Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds 06.12.2023 9:24 ↓

In which Uncle Jim talks you through his brother-in-law’s Spotify Unwrapped.

Alistair Darling, Moral Hazard and Northern Rock 01.12.2023 10:35 ↓

And Eurozone inflation falls by more than expected.

Charlie Munger RIP. And Fed’s Waller Triggers a Bond Rally 29.11.2023 11:55 ↓

Also Noah Smith on productivity

The UK’s Autumn Statement - Whoops We Did It Again? 25.11.2023 13:36 ↓

Gilts underperformed significantly last week on higher borrowing expectations. Don’t worry though - it wasn’t as bad as the Trussonomics sell-off.

The Turning Point? Inflation Falls, Bonds Rally, the Dollar Tanks. 19.11.2023 11:33 ↓

US CPI for a October came in flat, leading to a big move lower in global bond yields.

US Credit Rating At Risk. UK Growth Stagnates. 13.11.2023 10:13 ↓

We also have Moody’s looking at Italy’s credit rating this week, with the risk of a downgrade to junk.