Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Kilkenomics: Oh My God - It’s Kilkenny! 06.11.2023 9:32 ↓

Also today - why you shouldn’t necessarily believe in really old people.

Trump Trades 2024 03.11.2023 13:43 ↓

What would you do with your portfolio if you knew Trump was going to be next US President?

UJWOB Credit Special Part 2: Banks - The Dave Covey Interview 26.10.2023 31:53 ↓

Banking analyst Dave Covey talks CS AT1s, BoA’s US Treasury bond holdings, CRE lending and so much more.

The 4.99% US Treasury Yield and the Power of Convexity. 22.10.2023 11:40 ↓

Also: ‘Kilts’ and Central Bank Stories.

UJWOB Credit Special: Part 1 16.10.2023 29:34 ↓

A deep(ish) dive into the corporate bond market.

US Service Sector Inflation Kills The Bond Market Rally 13.10.2023 12:05 ↓

And Claudia Goldin wins the Economics Nobel Prize.

US Employment, Flight-to-Quality On Middle East Fears, Italy. 09.10.2023 12:25 ↓

And a belated look at Arslanalp & Eichengreen’s paper on government debt levels. TL;DR - tough to get them down from here given the growth outlook.

101 Reasons For The Great Bond Sell-Off 06.10.2023 11:24 ↓

And why Rishi Sunak faces a tricky election timing call given inflation base effects.

A Summary Of Recent Bond & Currency Moves 02.10.2023 11:19 ↓

And Judy Stephenson’s letter to the FT about making sure you use the right inflation numbers when looking at historical building costs.

Are the Monetarists Back? 29.09.2023 11:10 ↓

If they are, it could mean lower rates, not higher rates…

What Happened to The Pandemic Savings? Pretty Much All Gone I’m Afraid. 25.09.2023 10:05 ↓

Bonds can’t catch a break though. Highest UST yields since 2007.

A Wall of Worry For Bonds 22.09.2023 12:34 ↓

Also: NFTs, AI, Auto Workers’ Strike.

Table Mountain: Fed Holds But Will ‘Proceed Carefully’. UK Inflation Lets BoE Off The Hook. 20.09.2023 10:05 ↓

A Dynamically Priced Episode of IJWOB. Send me a fiver.

Peak Central Bank Rates = Peak Bond Yields? 18.09.2023 10:02 ↓

Lots of central bank activity this week, albeit with a lurking threat from higher oil and rents.

Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds 11.09.2023 13:53 ↓

Is Season 11 ‘The One Where The Fed Stops Hiking’? Find out soon.

UJWOB Summer Special 2023 ☀️ 25.08.2023 27:41 ↓

All your summer bond market fun in one place.

The End of Season 10 of UJWOB 28.07.2023 14:08 ↓

Three central banks, three policy actions. Oooh, and SUPERCONDUCTOR HOPE!

Geek Week For Central Bank Watchers 24.07.2023 9:58 ↓

Fed, ECB and BOJ. Central bankers are spoiling us.

Finally the Bank of England Catches a Break. Better UK Inflation Numbers. 19.07.2023 7:47 ↓

And Chinese property bonds fall.

The Turning Point in the Battle Against Inflation? June’s CPI Cheers Bonds. 17.07.2023 10:05 ↓

But bad news from the Chinese economy as GDP disappoints.

Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report: Not As Bad As 2007? 12.07.2023 12:14 ↓

The UK banking system is in a solid place. But look out for risks in pension funds, insurers and hedge funds around US Treasury bond exposures.

New Weakness In Bond Markets. Monetary Policy Doesn’t Seem To Be Working. 07.07.2023 10:59 ↓

Rocketing ADP employment data sends markets lower.

Don’t Fight The Fed. And UK Water Bonds In The Spotlight. 30.06.2023 11:47 ↓

Thames Water is making the headlines as its CEO quits. Water bond prices fall.

The Russian Coup, Credit, and Harry Markowitz. 26.06.2023 8:40 ↓

The ruble weakens - but what actually happened this weekend? No answers here I’m afraid.

UK Inflation - Another Shocker. And China’s 2023 Growth Outlook Downgraded. 21.06.2023 9:51 ↓

Core CPI in the UK is still rising.