Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Lenin, Hemingway and Fitzgerald. 03.10.2022 11:23 ↓

Back to pre mini Budget levels in £ and long gilts. But the damage is done.

Margin Call: Extraordinary Dysfunction in the Gilt Market 28.09.2022 12:10 ↓

Real yields have moved from -2.25% to +2%!

Record Low for the £, and Gilts Collapse Again. 26.09.2022 10:43 ↓

Not going well for Trussonomics so far.

Season 8: OMG THE GILT MARKET 23.09.2022 14:30 ↓

Gilts are selling off. So is the £.

Politics Special Edition with Randeep Somel! 01.09.2022 25:08 ↓

Everything you need to know about global politics in 25 minutes.

Uncle Jim’s 2022 Summer Special ☀️ 10.08.2022 29:12 ↓

Put down your John Grisham, pour yourself a pina colada and take a listen to this by the paddling pool.

The End of Uncle Jim’s Season 7: ECB hikes 50bps, and Trussanomics. 22.07.2022 11:55 ↓

Have lovely summer holidays. Stay frosty, and see you back here for Season 8.

Nationalisations, Rationing and a Cost of Living Crisis. Credit Spreads to Jump? 19.07.2022 9:29 ↓

A JPM research note gives an incredibly bearish outlook, especially for Europe.

US Consumers Feel Bad. But the Fed will hike to 3.5% by Christmas. 15.07.2022 9:48 ↓

And cut thereafter…

US Treasury Yield Curve Now Properly Inverted 12.07.2022 10:05 ↓

But because a US recession is ‘declared’ rather than measured, a soft-ish landing might break the bond market’s most beloved model. Also - the Laffer Curve doesn’t work.

Euro Nears Parity With the $. US Yield Curve Inverted As We Expect Weakening Labo(u)r Market. 08.07.2022 9:04 ↓

And a relief rally in the £ as disgraced PM Johnson is forced out.

Europe’s Natural Gas Problem: interview with Orlando Finzi 06.07.2022 13:47 ↓

Utilities analyst Orlando Finzi gives an update on the massive rise in gas prices, and the implications for inflation and growth.

🚨Narrative Change Alert🚨 From Inflation to Recession… 04.07.2022 10:10 ↓

And a 21% total return in one day from UK linkers.

The Worst Start to a Year for USTs Since Before George Washington! 01.07.2022 9:47 ↓

Also, property REITs underperforming a weak credit market.

China 🇨🇳 Reopening? But US 🇺🇸 Consumer is In Trouble… 29.06.2022 7:55 ↓

Also, Scotland’s 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 independence debate is back.

Yields Drop Despite Hawkish Fed Rhetoric: Hike Expectations Peaking? 24.06.2022 9:35 ↓

And credit is still very weak.

The Deutsche Bank Default Study: Ouch 17.06.2022 14:05 ↓

Jim Reid’s brilliant annual publication is out. Here’s the highlights.

Bondmageddon Continues. 15.06.2022 12:04 ↓

5 days in a row of rising UST yields and credit is widening daily too.

New 40 Year 🇺🇸 CPI High - and Record Low in Consumer Sentiment… 13.06.2022 8:05 ↓

And did Google’s AI just become sentient?! 🤖

Workers’ Power Returning? The Fed Thinks That Trade Unions Hold The Key To Inflation. 10.06.2022 12:14 ↓

Also Lagarde and the ECB - rate hikes in July and September. Positive Rates Coming Back.

Jubilee Special. Credit is rallying off its May lows. 30.05.2022 7:20 ↓

Nottingham Forest 🌳: back where we belong.

What does $ Strength Mean for Emerging Markets 27.05.2022 10:46 ↓

And Forest head to Wembley! 🌳

Recession fears grow. Stocks down, bond yields down. Bank of England under attack. 20.05.2022 8:56 ↓

And Tesla gets expelled from the S&P’s ESG index. Elon Musk isn’t impressed.

Apocalypse Now. Andrew Bailey at the Treasury Select Committee 17.05.2022 6:52 ↓

Food price inflation a big worry for the Bank of England.

Crytpo-crash, Michael Owen, and breaking pegs. 12.05.2022 8:10 ↓

Tether broke the buck today. Government bonds are rallying despite strong CPI.