Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Fed Hike Expectations Jump Higher 20.02.2023 10:50 ↓

Back from a disastrous snowboarding trip. 😬🏂

The Wetherspoon’s Inflation Indicator, In Which Our Intrepid Podcaster Buys A Round 09.02.2023 8:55 ↓

£27. TWENTY SEVEN QUID.

Jay Powell: “The Labor Market is Extraordinary”. 08.02.2023 12:01 ↓

517k new US jobs created last month. And LDI follow up.

Bonds ❤️ Central Banks 03.02.2023 10:46 ↓

Hikes from the Fed, ECB and BoE. Bond markets see record rallies. Risk loves it too. The end (of high interest rates) is nigh?

Bregret? Three Years After Brexit, How Did It Go? 31.01.2023 10:13 ↓

Bloomberg Economics analysis, and IMF forecasts.

Instantaneous Inflation - Back to Target but Next Week the Fed, BoE and ECB Will All Hike 27.01.2023 10:06 ↓

Jan Eeckhout paper from UPF Barcelona is worth a read.

Brazil 🇧🇷 and Argentina 🇦🇷 Talking About A Single Currency Zone 23.01.2023 10:04 ↓

And more on Japan, and ChatGPT.

🇯🇵 A Japan Special - YCC and Kuroda 🇯🇵 20.01.2023 8:48 ↓

No change in YCC. Short sellers RIP 🪦

Debt Ceiling Self-Sabotage 20.01.2023 11:13 ↓

And some ‘best ever’ stats for you.

The Risk Rally Continues - Credit Loves the Good News Narrative 16.01.2023 11:15 ↓

And the 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan could be on the verge of something big.

Bluebirds>Black Swans. Hope for 2023? 12.01.2023 11:19 ↓

What is the bond market narrative for the new year?

Season 9 of UJWOB: the end of the Negative Yielding Bond Era 06.01.2023 14:19 ↓

🚨🚨🚨The last negative yielding bond turned positive yesterday!🚨🚨🚨

Uncle Jim’s 2023 Bond Market Outlook 09.12.2022 37:47 ↓

Better late than never. 😘

The End of Season 8 of UJWOB: The Powell Pivot? 05.12.2022 10:06 ↓

But US wage growth shocked bond markets on Friday.

Alan Blinder: A Monetary & Fiscal History of the United States 1961-2021 02.12.2022 17:26 ↓

An interview with the former Fed Vice Chair about his fascinating new book. Keynes, Kennedy, Friedman, Reagan, Bernanke, and Clinton v the Bond Vigilantes. It’s all here. The book is out now.

China 🇨🇳 Protests 28.11.2022 11:00 ↓

And government bond yields continue to fall. Also Ackman and the HKD.

The Fixed Income Everything Rally. 25.11.2022 9:05 ↓

And monetary policy nerds assemble at the Bank of England.

Paul the Octopus v Goldman Sachs 21.11.2022 11:21 ↓

But mainly about credit and some bearish default forecasts from Deutsche Bank.

The Inflation Turning Point? 14.11.2022 9:05 ↓

And Twitter, Crypto, Saunders.

Midterms, Menu Costs, Crypto 10.11.2022 9:18 ↓

Best news for the GOP? Trump influence wanes. Worst news? He might take his revenge.

More US Yield Curve Inversion - and 🇺🇸 Jobs Growth Remains Solid 04.11.2022 11:19 ↓

3 month/10 year curve is now negative

Halloween 🎃 and Gilts Are No Longer So Scary. 31.10.2022 13:22 ↓

But mortgage rates aren’t really falling back in the UK.

What Does Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Winner, Call the UK’s Bond Spread? 21.10.2022 11:23 ↓

As officially named by Dario Perkins.

Four UK Chancellors In A Year. And US Core Inflation at 6.6% 14.10.2022 9:56 ↓

Trussonomics cancelled?

No Rest for Gilts: Another Big Selloff Despite New Help From Bank of England. 10.10.2022 11:05 ↓

And Ben Bernanke wins the Nobel Prize.