This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Trump is dismantling USAID, pulling the rug on vital humanitarian aid and development funding, and countries across the West have followed suit in slashing foreign aid budgets.  To discuss the grim ramifications of Western governments turning their back on overseas aid, and what the world can do in response, Emma Beals talks to President of Refugees International Jeremy Konyndyk, and Sara Pantulia...

Could the German government’s historic vote to back a major rearmament plan prove a turning point for the whole of Europe? To discuss the German response to European security concerns, the threat of Russian aggression and an increasingly unreliable relationship with the United States, Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Nicolai von Ondarza from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin. • This episo...

Despite a supposed “pause” in attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Russian airstrikes against Ukraine continue. Meanwhile Trump’s much-touted call with Putin showed no evidence of moving negotiations forward. Is a genuine ceasefire possible or is Putin displaying his ability to manipulate events yet again? Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics at King’s College London and director of de...

Whatever happens in the negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine and the United States, one thing is certain: Britain is now a key part of the European race to rearm. Military commanders, defence contractors, national security experts and politicians face a rush to fill in the gaps in European security left by an unreliable American president.  The proposed EU ReArm Europe plan outlines 800 billion...

Is there more to Trump’s designs on Greenland than just whim and chaos? As climate change melts the Arctic ice, global powers are positioning themselves over newly-opened resources, trade routes and strategic opportunities – and Trump’s America no longer abides by international rules or alliances. Will the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic become a new arena for old-fashioned great power rivalry? Kl...

How can Zelenskyy work with a US President he fundamentally can’t trust? Trump’s decision to pause US aid to Ukraine was the final act in a seismic weekend which sent shockwaves through Europe. Following the dire spectacle of Trump and Vance rounding on Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, is the relationship now purely coercive?  Oz Katerji talks to Kyiv-based conflict and human rights journalist and CE...

With Trump seemingly determined to destroy any vestige of a US security guarantee for Europe, is the NATO era coming to an end? Gavin Esler talks to Air Marshal Edward Stringer, who served as Britain’s Director-General of Joint Force Development, Strategic Command, about Europe’s new security reality. Can Europe cope with the threat of an expansionist Russia on its Eastern flank, and a US Presiden...

The free world is reeling and Putin is jubilant as Trump goes over the heads of Ukraine and Europe to “negotiate” directly with Russia – cutting Zelenskyy and European leaders out of talks in Saudi Arabia. Will the two autocrats simply carve Ukraine up between them? Will they heed Zelenskyy’s demand that there be no settlement without Ukraine’s participation? And given Russia’s record of deception...

Trump has clear disdain for NATO – but could he really pull the US out of the alliance? And what would be its prospects without American support? In the current geopolitical climate, the annual meeting this week of European military, security and political experts – the Munich Security Conference 2025 – has a special urgency. Just how far is the Trump administration truly in or out on European def...

On his return to the White House this January, Donald Trump pledged to be a ‘peacemaker’, after insisting during his campaign that he would bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours. Nearly three years into Russia’s all out war on its neighbour, its brutal attacks continue – with incremental territorial gains coming at the costs of thousands of lives. Yet Ukraine’s military still fights...

When a British submarine surfaced in the North Sea to warn off a Russian spy vessel sailing just 45 miles from the British mainland, a series of shadowy maritime sabotage incidents burst onto the front pages and into public consciousness. In the past year undersea cables vital to European digital infrastructure have been targeted for damage - most notably in the Baltic Sea. With blame difficult to...

For decades the Islamic Republic of Iran used its ties to Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen to create conflict and shore up its power in the Middle East and beyond. But in 2024 Iran’s plans and power fell apart in spectacular fashion, from Assad’s fall in Syria to Israel’s devastating attacks on its proxy groups. Once able to export chaos with impunity, Tehran is now in a state of unpreced...

After 15 months of horror, a ceasefire and hostage release deal triggers rejoicing in Israel and Palestine. But the deal is ambiguous and built around only a gradual release of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages, with no agreement to end the war yet. While Trump rushes to claim credit, some fear the deal is so loose it might collapse. Could this conflict reignite? Gavin Esler talks to Midd...

With his unhinged foreign policy pronouncements, including demands that Greenland and the Panama Canal be handed over to the US, and vague threats to annex Canada, Donald Trump is already setting governments on edge. How will the world cope with an America First foreign policy where chaos and uncertainty are features not bugs?  And as the self-styled dealmaker vows to bring a swift end to conflict...

The climate emergency is more urgent than ever, yet powerful interests are still pushing back on solutions and peddling climate denial. From fossil fuel giants to populist governments and greedy online grifters, they sow doubts about four decades of research and undermine a hard-won global political consensus.  Who are the Climate Con-Men and how are they succeeding? Gavin Esler talks to Jennie Ki...

Assad’s stunning fall ends a tyrannical 53-year rule in Syria, leaving monstrous crimes against human rights exposed, rocking both Iran and Russia on their heels, and handing the country’s future back to its people. Where next for Syria? Will the rebel fighters coalesce into a working government and avoid the factionalism which would jeopardise the Syrian people’s hopes? And what does it mean for...

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. This year marks a decade since ISIS hit the headlines with their dramatic rise to power in Iraq. It would be easy now to think it is a thing of the past. But in 2024 the group is having a resurgence in Syria, has a presence across Africa, and has morphed into a worldwide operation.  With multiple wars and a new phas...

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. Donald Trump’s talk of boosted tariffs has sparked concerns of a major trade war with America’s rivals. The Chinese government has responded that “no one will win a trade war” and with economists warning that tariffs are liable to increase inflation, who will be the losers of Trump’s trade policies? And how would ta...

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. Donald Trump operates in a zero sum world. If he’s going to win, you have to lose. So what will his brutal negotiation methods mean for global diplomatic corps who are already rocked by our turbulent times?  Trump is promising an immediate end to the war in Ukraine and threatening global tariffs on US imports, rangi...

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. A destabilised Europe faces a stark choice, now more urgent since Trump’s victory. Make urgent preparations for a shooting war with Russia on our own territory – or prepare to lose that war, with all the terrifying consequences. That’s the argument of Keir Giles, author of Who Will Defend Europe? and senior consulti...

President Zelenskyy’s attack into the Russian-occupied Kursk region of Ukraine was audacious and unexpected. But with Ukrainian resources stretched thin after three years of fighting – and with thousands of North Korean troops arriving in Russia to reinvigorate Putin’s war effort – is it working? Will the alliance between Putin and fellow dictator Kim Jong-Un make a dire conflict worse? And with t...

Corruption, bribery and cronyism aren’t just criminal matters. International alliances of corrupt states and their enablers are undermining democracies and international law, creating a world without rules where everything and anyone can be bought. From Putin’s gangster state to COVID corruption and favouritism in the UK, the West’s response has been feeble. Is Kleptocracy the real threat to globa...

Try the new science and psychology podcast Why? – from the producers of This Is Not A Drill. Why? is the podcast for curious minds. Every Thursday, presenter Emma Kennedy talks to experts and theorists to discover the science and psychology of why we are the way we are. In the first episode: Why do people join cults? Emma Kennedy talks to world-leading cult deprogrammer Rick Alan Ross and NXIVM cu...

The transformation of China in the past quarter of a century has seen the nation become one of the world’s dominant powers alongside the United States.  At the centre of this changing global balance lies the future of Taiwan, both separated from and inextricably linked to China.  In the latest This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler asks what the Taiwan question tells us about the future of an ideologica...

Big Tech’s innovations have remade every aspect of everyday life – but its libertarian-fuelled political side is darker. Elon Musk has repurposed X/Twitter as an active part of Trump’s re-election campaign, platforming far right agitators like Tucker Carlson, and spreading incendiary misinformation. Brazil is locked in a legal battle with Twitter over disinformation and Telegram co-founder Pavel D...