This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

As details, claims and counter claims emerge after Trump’s long-promised peace talks, Ukraine’s future remains in the balance. In this special 100th of edition of This Is Not A Drill, Oz Katerji discusses a week of crucial diplomacy with Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s minister for foreign affairs from 2020 to 2024. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps you...

After a frantic week of international diplomacy, where has the Trump-Putin summit left the prospect of an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine? Following Trump’s red carpet welcome for Putin in Alaska, European leaders scrambled to join Volodymyr Zelenskyy for further talks in Washington. With details still unclear on a host of negotiations, from land swaps to security guarantees, sanctions and even a p...

The highly potent opioid fentanyl is a major cause of death in the US – and the global trade of the drug is also a cause of growing geopolitical division.  Trump has claimed tariffs on Mexico and Canada are targeting the supply of the drug; his China tariffs have complicated efforts to stem exports of the ingredients needed for its production, and fractures among cartels pushing fentanyl could wel...

After the 12 day war, which saw Israel and the US bomb Iran and its nuclear facilities, where next for the Iranian regime?  Questions remain over the Tehran regime’s ability to stay in power after decades of tensions in the region exploded on Iranian soil in June, its strategy of ‘forward defence’ left in ruins following Israel’s attacks on Iranian-aligned militia groups. Will Iran now continue to...

Why is it so difficult to end wars and what makes peace settlements so likely to be rejected? These questions echo across the globe in an era of conflict and political division, with attempts to broker peace settlements in Gaza and Ukraine dominating headlines but so far remaining out of reach.  Historian Margaret MacMillan is Professor at the University of Oxford and the author of numerous books...

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a generation of young Russians hoped for a better future of economic prosperity and personal freedom. Yet three decades later Russia has invaded Ukraine and is isolated from the Western world. What happened to the dreams of the perestroika generation, and what does Russian society think about Putin’s war and his grip on power? In the latest episode of Thi...

Trump’s position on the war in Ukraine looks to be changing, with his decision to send new weapons to Ukraine and a 50-day ultimatum for Vladimir Putin to halt Russian attacks. But will Trump’s threat of ‘severe’ sanctions decisively impact Russian’s war economy and force Putin to a lasting ceasefire?   Gavin Esler assesses Trump’s ‘major statement’ on Russia with Mark Galeotti, historian, writer...

Trump has opened the doors to kleptocrats the world over as he launches a new era of corruption the likes of which we’ve never seen. Oliver Bullough, writer of the Coda Story newsletter as well as the author of Butler to the World: How Britain Became the Servant of Tycoons, Tax Dodgers, Kleptocrats and Criminals, and Moneyland, has long been following the corrupt ways money moves around the globe....

From ‘alternative facts’ to political lies to the disinformation that courses through social media, the ‘post-truth’ phenomenon threatens the foundations of democracy.  Politicians and ideologues are ramping up mistrust in our institutions using unchecked digital media. How can we hold onto democratic guardrails in a world shaped by politically-driven deceit and manipulation? Eliot Higgins is the...

Out early due to the fast moving situation...  The ceasefire announced by Donald Trump has seemingly brought an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran.  Yet with the ceasefire almost immediately broken by both sides according to the latest reports, will the truce last? And what can America and allies do to hold peace in a fragile Middle East? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Julie Norman, professo...

As Israel and Iran continue to trade attacks, what role will the US play in attempting to bring the crisis to an end - and might it be dragged into the conflict? As Donald Trump weighs up his options – either to force Iran into committing to giving up its nuclear programme, or potentially deploy US bombers and bunker busting bombs to hit Iran’s underground nuclear facilities – the prospect of Amer...

Israel’s unprecedented attack on over 100 targets in Iran – including nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military leadership – has stunned the region. But what does it mean? As Iranian state TV reports the deaths of key regime figures, and nuclear scientists, supreme leader Ali Khamenei promises heavy retaliation for “Operation Rising Lion”. Trump meanwhile warns “it will only get worse” for I...

Launching the UK’s latest strategic defence review, Keir Starmer pledged renewed spending on defence and vowed “everything we do will add to the strength of NATO”. Yet as NATO secretary general Mark Rutte calls for members to increase spending further to five percent of GDP on security, are Britain and its allies doing enough to secure the alliance’s future and deter the threat of an expansionist...

More than three years since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, warfare has been transformed by drones.  Reports have stated that 70 percent of combat casualties in the war in Ukraine are now caused by drones, while the British security think tank RUSI calculates drones account for 60 to 70 percent of damaged and destroyed Russian systems. Ukraine, forced to innovate to hold off Russian fo...

Ukraine’s daring drone attack Operation Spiderweb has stunned Russia with its stealth, precision planning and the damage it unleashed on warplanes based deep within Russian territory.  Gavin Esler is joined from Kyiv by This Is Not A Drill co-host Oz Katerji, to discuss the impact of an operation planned meticulously over the past 18 months – and what it means both for the war and the nature of as...

The continued assault of the Israeli armed forces amid a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza has drawn global criticism. Yet the question remains – who will intervene to end the conflict and restrain Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu? Donald Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East saw the US President looking to broker deals in the region - including the potential for a new deal with Isra...

With questions raised over Europe’s defence capabilities, Poland is one of the key nations insisting the continent needs to bolster its security.  This March the European Commission announced an €800bn plan to boost continental defence. But is Europe doing enough? Gavin Esler discusses the view from Poland with Professor Agnieszka Bieńczyk-Missala from the Faculty of Political Science and Internat...

Trump’s shock announcement that he would be lifting economic sanctions on Syria has sparked celebrations in the streets of Damascus.  What are the consequences for the recovery of a nation rebuilding its state and infrastructure after more than a decade of civil war? And following the announcement in Riyadh after a meeting between Trump and Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, what does it mean...

As the crisis across the India-Pakistan border escalates, can the conflict be brought back from the brink? To discuss the latest from the region and the wider context of a deep-rooted interstate rivalry, Gavin Esler talks to Christopher Clary, associate professor at University at Albany, State University of New York, non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and author of The Difficult Politics of...

Ukraine and the US have reached a long-awaited agreement on a deal over American access to Ukrainian mineral resources. What does this mean for Ukrainian resilience in the fight against Russian invasion – and for a US-Ukraine relationship strained by the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House? Oz Katerji discusses the mineral deal and the economics of the war with Tymofiy Mylovanov, President...

As a follower of This Is Not A Drill, we thought you might like to try our brand new, not-entirely-dissimilar podcast CRIME SCENE. Every week ex-Met Police Commissioner Bernard Hogan-Howe and former Mirror editor Alison Phillips lift the lid on how criminal investigations really work. In our debut episode: The horrific shooting of an innocent nine-year-old girl in Dalston in 2024 laid bare bitter...

The first 100 days of Trump’s second term have left the rest of the world facing the challenge of maintaining a global order without American leadership at its core.  What comes next is the subject of ‘Order Without America, How the International System can Survive a Hostile Washington’ – a recent Foreign Affairs article by the founding Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government and Professor of G...

Donald Trump famously said he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. But now, he’s suggested the US might “pass” on peace negotiations – unless rapid progress is made. So, what does that mean for Ukraine, three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion? After a week of statement and counter-statement in which Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported continued Russian attacks on Ukraine despite Vladimir P...

Amid the shocks created by Trump’s tariff policies, are we also seeing a kind of American economic self-harm – which threatens the long-standing dominance of the US dollar? Gavin Esler talks to Harvard Professor of Economics and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff, whose new book Our Dollar, Your Problem looks at the rise of the US currency and shows why its future is...

Donald Trump’s volatile behaviour raises questions for intelligence sharing across the globe – so how unsafe could he make our world? Is the Five Eyes alliance between Britain, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand Trump-proof? And how might his actions impact it? Professor Ciaran Martin of the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, and former chief executive of the National Cy...