The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo: Treasury, Borrowing, and Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how rising interest payments on the national debt are consuming a growing share of federal spending. With the 30-year Treasury yield near 5 percent and the total federal debt surpassing $38.5 trillion, debt service costs now exceed $1.3 trillion annually—more than Medicare or defense. The hosts discuss how this squeeze limits fis...

Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising fiscal data point: the federal deficit narrowed by about $40 billion in fiscal 2025, even as the national debt crossed $38.5 trillion. They break down what drove the improvement — stronger tax receipts, slower spending growth — and why it may not last. The conversation focuses on the interest expense squeeze: with the 30-year yield near 5 percent and the Fed ho...

As of mid-June 2026, the U.S. national debt stands at $38.5 trillion, and the federal government is spending over $1 trillion annually just on interest payments. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into how rising Treasury yields are driving up debt service costs, crowding out other federal spending, and creating a fiscal feedback loop. With the 10-year yield at 4.45 percent and the 30-year near 5...

Episode 52 of The National Debt Podcast. Lucas and Luna drill into the ECB's first rate hike since 2023, triggered by Iran conflict energy costs, and what it means for US Treasury borrowing costs and fiscal arithmetic. With the 10-year yield at 4.45% and 30-year at 4.97%, they explore how higher European rates attract global capital away from US Treasuries, potentially forcing the US to pay more t...

Lucas and Luna break down how the European Central Bank's first rate hike since 2023 is rippling through US Treasury borrowing costs. They connect the ECB's move to the 30-year yield hovering near 5 percent and the federal deficit's widening path. Specific data includes the 30-year yield at 4.95 percent, the 10-year at 4.45 percent, and the debt-to-GDP ratio at 122.6 percent. The hosts argue that...

In this 50th episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine a quiet but consequential shift in Treasury's borrowing strategy: the 30-year yield hovering near 5 percent. They explain why the long end of the curve matters more than the short end for the fiscal outlook, how rising term premiums are adding to the government's interest bill, and what the recent decline from 5.03 to 4.95 p...

On this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down why the U.S. federal debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed to 122.6 percent as of October 2025, up from 121 percent the year before. They explore the arithmetic behind the increase: a $1.77 trillion deficit against a growing but not fast enough economy. Lucas explains why this ratio matters more than the raw debt number, and why it's...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how the 30-year Treasury yield holding above five percent is spilling over into mortgage markets. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 7.2 percent as of early June 2026, home affordability is at its worst in decades, and refinancing activity has collapsed to a fraction of pre-pandemic levels. The hosts break down the me...

The ECB just raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, a direct consequence of the Iran conflict driving up energy costs. Lucas and Luna unpack how a European monetary policy move affects the US national debt picture. They explain the transmission channel: stronger euro, weaker dollar, imported inflation, and higher Treasury yields. With the 30-year yield already at 5.03%, foreign deman...

In episode 46 of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how the hotter-than-expected May wholesale inflation print — 1.1 percent month-over-month — changes the math on US debt service costs. With the 30-year yield at 5.03 percent and the federal debt-to-GDP ratio at 122.6 percent, the hosts explain why even small shifts in inflation expectations compound into hundreds of billions in ext...

The European Central Bank just raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, citing an energy-driven inflation surge linked to the Iran conflict. In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore what that means for US fiscal policy. They break down how a stronger euro affects the dollar-denominated debt market, why foreign demand for Treasuries is at a critical juncture,...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack how the latest inflation data—consumer prices up 4.2% annually in May 2026—reshapes the math behind the $38.5 trillion federal debt. They explore the concept of inflating away debt: how higher nominal GDP growth improves the debt-to-GDP ratio, but also raises Treasury borrowing costs as the 30-year yield sits at 5.03%...

With today's CPI print showing 4.2 percent annual inflation, Lucas and Luna explore how rising consumer prices are quietly reshaping the federal debt arithmetic. They walk through the inflation tax concept, how nominal GDP growth eases the debt-to-GDP ratio even as borrowing costs rise, and why the Treasury's effective interest rate is climbing faster than many models predicted. Anchored in the la...

The yield curve is no longer inverted — but the 3-month Treasury yield has fallen behind the 10-year, raising questions about the Fed's control over short-term rates. As of June 10, 2026, the 3-month yield sits at 3.80 percent, while the 10-year is at 4.56 percent. That 76-basis-point gap suggests the market is pricing in rate cuts that haven't happened yet. Lucas and Luna unpack why the front end...

The national debt has surpassed $38.5 trillion, but a hidden driver is surging long-term unemployment. Lucas and Luna examine how workers out of work for 27 weeks or more are straining the federal budget through reduced tax revenue and extended benefits, creating a fiscal feedback loop that conventional projections underestimate. They tie this to the steepening yield curve and the 30-year yield hi...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore what a 30-year Treasury yield above 5 percent means for the housing market and mortgage rates. With the 30-year yield hitting 5.02 percent on June 8, 2026, mortgage rates have crept above 7 percent, pricing out a generation of first-time buyers. The hosts discuss the transmission mechanism from Treasury yields to mortgage spreads...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine a hidden driver of fiscal pressure: surging long-term unemployment. Drawing on the latest New York Fed survey data showing household financial worries at their highest since July 2022, and May's ADP jobs report, they unpack why workers out of work for 27 weeks or more cost the government far more than short-term unemployment — in...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — one of the longest stretches on record — and it's not behaving like past cycles. Lucas and Luna dig into why the 2-year yield is still above the 10-year even as the Fed has cut rates, what that says about the bond market's view of fiscal policy, and why this persistent inversion might be a bigger warning sign than the steepeners that usually p...

Episode 37 of The National Debt Podcast looks at a growing anomaly in government borrowing: Treasury is issuing more short-term bills than long-term bonds, even as the debt crosses 38.5 trillion dollars. Lucas and Luna examine why the 3-month yield at 3.62 percent is cheaper than 30-year bonds at nearly 5 percent, what that means for refinancing risk, and how the Federal Reserve's interest on rese...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna drill into a single number that tells a big story: the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread is now 38 basis points. That sounds small, but it's a sign that markets are pricing in a long-term debt burden that short-term rate cuts can't fix. Lucas walks through the math: why a flat or rising spread during a rate-cutting cycle is unusual, what it means for the Tr...

In Episode 35 of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into a hidden fiscal accelerant: long-term unemployment. With the May jobs report due Friday and the Federal debt hitting 38.5 trillion, they break down how workers out of work for six months or more drive up safety-net spending and depress tax receipts for years. They connect new ADP payroll data (122,000 private-sector jobs in May)...

The U.S. Treasury now issues more short-term debt than at any point since the financial crisis. Lucas and Luna explain why the government is effectively borrowing on a credit card — issuing bills with maturities under one year to fund long-term spending. They break down the mechanics: the Treasury's cash management problem, the role of the debt ceiling, and what happens when 3-month yields stay ab...

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling signal in the Treasury market: the 3-month bill yield is holding near 3.78 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.49. That narrow 71-basis-point gap is historically abnormal and suggests the market is pricing in a very different rate path than the Fed's current stance. They walk through what the short end is saying about recession risk, the Fed's next moves, and how...

This week on The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna connect two seemingly separate dots: the rising long-term unemployment rate and the accelerating national debt. With federal debt at 38.5 trillion dollars and the 30-year Treasury yield hovering near 5 percent, they explain why workers who are out of a job for more than six months aren't just a labor-market problem — they're a structural fisca...

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that flummoxes the bond market: the Fed has cut short-term rates to 3.63 percent, but the 30-year Treasury yield sits stubbornly at 4.98 percent. They walk through the data—the 10-year at 4.46, the 2-year at 4.05—and explain why fiscal deficits, term premium, and foreign demand are overriding the central bank's signals. With the national debt at 38.5 trillion and d...