The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo: Treasury, Borrowing, and Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

Lucas and Luna explore what the 30-year Treasury yield hovering near 5 percent means for the federal debt trajectory. With the yield at 4.99 percent as of early June 2026, they discuss how persistent long-term rates reshape borrowing costs, crowd out other spending, and signal market skepticism about fiscal discipline. Lucas breaks down the math: each percentage point increase in the 30-year adds...

The national debt has surpassed $38.5 trillion, with interest costs consuming a growing share of the federal budget. Lucas and Luna examine how the latest economic data—strong payrolls, rising tariffs, and elevated bond yields—complicates the Treasury's borrowing strategy. They discuss the 30-year yield hovering near 5%, the 10-year at 4.49%, and what the 10-2 yield spread of 41 basis points says...

The yield curve between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury has been positive for months, but today it's narrowing again. Lucas and Luna dig into why the spread matters beyond the usual recession signal — focusing on how the Treasury's shifting debt maturity mix is distorting that signal. With the 10-year at 4.47 percent and the 2-year at 4.05 percent, they explore what the 41-basis-point spread actua...

Lucas and Luna unpack what the latest Treasury auction data reveals about changing demand dynamics. With the 10-year note yield hovering near 4.45 percent and the 30-year bond above 4.97 percent, auction bid-to-cover ratios have been sliding. Lucas explains why primary dealer takedown is at its highest in years, meaning fewer end-buyers are stepping up. They discuss how geopolitical risks from the...

Episode 26 of The National Debt Podcast examines a structural shift in the Treasury market: as the total federal debt surpasses $38.5 trillion, the composition of bond buyers is changing. Lucas and Luna discuss how foreign official holdings have declined from 35% of marketable debt in 2012 to roughly 23% today, while domestic institutional investors like pension funds and banks are stepping in und...

Episode 25 of The National Debt Podcast examines the hidden fiscal cost of the Iran war. With the federal debt at 38.5 trillion dollars and debt-to-GDP at 122.6 percent, the conflict is compounding inflation and forcing the Treasury to borrow more at higher rates. Lucas and Luna break down how an extra 450 dollars per household in energy costs feeds into the deficit, why the 30-year yield is flirt...

As the national debt crosses 38.5 trillion dollars and the 30-year Treasury yield hovers near 5 percent, Lucas and Luna explore how foreign buyers are retreating from US debt auctions. The episode digs into the shifting composition of Treasury holders, the rising term premium demanded by investors, and what it means for the government's ability to borrow cheaply. With data from the latest quarterl...

Lucas and Luna break down how the U.S. national debt has surged past 38.5 trillion dollars, with a specific focus on the $450 annual energy cost hit to households from the Iran conflict. They examine why war-related spending is compounding the deficit faster than expected, and what the widening yield spread means for long-term borrowing costs. With the 30-year Treasury yield hovering near 5 percen...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how the Iran conflict is driving up energy prices and creating a new fiscal strain on the federal budget. With core inflation at 3.3% and the 30-year yield flirting with 5%, they trace the connection between geopolitical shocks, consumer spending, and Treasury's borrowing costs. The hosts break down why the national debt has surp...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine a quiet but critical shift in the federal budget: interest on the national debt is now consuming a larger share of tax revenue than federal spending on children's programs, transportation infrastructure, and science research combined. Using fresh data from the latest Treasury report through May 2026, they break down how net inter...

With the US national debt breaking through $38.5 trillion and the debt-to-GDP ratio climbing above 122%, Lucas and Luna dig into why the debt is growing faster than ever — even before the next recession. They break down the mechanics of compounding debt service, the feedback loop between higher yields and bigger deficits, and why the Treasury's borrowing costs are now a structural fiscal driver, n...

Episode 19 of The National Debt Podcast drills into the 30-year Treasury yield, which has crossed 5 percent for the first time in over a decade. Lucas and Luna examine why the long bond is breaking out while shorter-term yields stay flat, and what that says about fiscal credibility. They look at the data: the 30-year yield hit 5.01 percent on May 27, while the 2-year sits at 4.00, widening the spr...

Episode 18 of The National Debt Podcast examines a quiet but consequential shift in the US Treasury market: foreign official holdings of US government debt have declined by roughly $100 billion over the past year, according to Treasury International Capital data. Hosts Lucas and Luna unpack why traditional heavy buyers like Japan and China are reducing their exposure, what that means for domestic...

The national debt has climbed past $38.5 trillion, and the federal deficit is still running nearly $1.8 trillion annually. But the real story isn't the raw number — it's the compounding effect of higher interest rates on a debt stock that keeps rolling over at higher yields. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the math of debt dynamics, using the latest Treasury data from late May 2026. They ex...

The U.S. Treasury is paying the highest long-term borrowing costs in decades, with the 30-year bond yield above 5 percent and the 10-year at 4.5 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore why the Treasury has been forced to issue more long-term debt even as rates climb, what that means for the federal budget, and how the persistent supply of government bonds is reshaping the bond market. The...

The 30-year Treasury yield has stayed above 5% for weeks while the short end remains anchored near 3.6%. Lucas and Luna break down what this persistent steepening means for the federal government's borrowing strategy, why the Treasury is increasingly reliant on long-term debt, and how the debt-to-GDP ratio crossing 122% changes the bond market's calculus. With consumer sentiment at a record low an...

Lucas and Luna examine how interest payments on the national debt have become the fastest-growing line item in the federal budget, now exceeding discretionary spending on defense and non-defense programs combined. As of May 2026, net interest costs run roughly one point two trillion dollars annually, driven by a debt-to-GDP ratio above 122 percent and rates that remain elevated even as the Fed hol...

The U.S. Treasury recently announced it will increase the size of its long-term bond auctions, including the 10-year and 30-year, even as the 30-year yield hovers near 5%. Lucas and Luna break down why the Treasury is shifting its borrowing strategy toward longer maturities, how this affects the yield curve, and what it means for investors and taxpayers. They examine the latest data on the federal...

Consumer sentiment just hit a record low in May 2026 as inflation worries persist—but what does that have to do with the national debt and Treasury yields? Lucas and Luna unpack the overlooked link between how Americans feel about the economy and the government's cost of borrowing. With the 30-year Treasury at 5.06% and the debt-to-GDP ratio climbing above 122%, they explore why a pessimistic publ...

Lucas and Luna dig into a quietly alarming shift in Treasury borrowing strategy: by late May 2026, the federal government has issued roughly 35 percent of its new debt in bills maturing within a year. That's up from roughly 20 percent a decade ago. On paper, short-term debt saves interest costs because yields are lower — the three-month bill yields 3.68 percent while the thirty-year bond sits at 5...

Lucas and Luna dive into a quiet but significant signal in the bond market: the bid-to-cover ratio at recent Treasury auctions has been drifting lower, even as yields climb. They unpack what this means for the government's borrowing costs, the strain on primary dealers, and why the pattern echoes the 2008-2010 period. With the 10-year yield at 4.57% and the 30-year at 5.10%, the hosts discuss whet...

With consumer sentiment hitting a record low in May 2026 and the ten-year Treasury yield hovering at 4.57 percent, Lucas and Luna explore the real connection between how Americans feel about the economy and what happens in the bond market. They break down the specific transmission channels: how falling sentiment can push yields down via a flight to safety, but also how inflation worries complicate...

With the national debt topping $38.5 trillion and debt-to-GDP at 122.6 percent, the Treasury faces a borrowing paradox: issuing more long-term debt just as yields on 30-year bonds hover near 5 percent. Lucas and Luna examine the mechanics of Treasury's quarterly refunding announcements, the rising cost of interest payments, and why the Biden administration's latest budget request includes higher i...

The bond market is flashing a signal that most retail investors are ignoring. The yield curve has re-steepened after months of inversion — the gap between two-year and ten-year Treasury yields is back to 43 basis points. Lucas and Luna unpack why this matters for anyone with a mortgage, a car loan, or a portfolio. They walk through the mechanics of what traders call 'bear steepening' versus 'bull...

The yield curve has un-inverted for the first time in nearly three years, but Treasury markets aren't cheering. Lucas and Luna break down why the 10-year minus 2-year spread widened to 43 basis points this week while the 30-year bond still yields over 5%. They look at what the curve's shape says about investor anxiety over debt maturity, rollover risk, and the new Fed chair. With the federal debt-...