The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo: Treasury, Borrowing, and Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

In episode 105, Lucas and Luna examine how the 30-year Treasury yield lingering near 5% is fundamentally altering the federal government's borrowing calculus. With the national debt now above $39 trillion and the long end of the curve persistently high, interest costs are absorbing a larger share of tax revenue than at any point in modern history. The hosts discuss what this means for fiscal flexi...

The 30-year Treasury yield has crossed 5 percent for the first time in over two decades, and that single number is reshaping the math behind America's $39 trillion national debt. Lucas and Luna break down how rising long-term rates drive up the cost of rolling over maturing bonds, why the Treasury's average interest rate on debt is now above 3.3 percent, and what the steepening yield curve signals...

The yield curve is steepening — the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.56 percent while the 2-year sits at 4.21 percent, pushing the spread to 38 basis points. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore why the long end of the curve is rising faster than the short end, how this steepening changes the cost of rolling over $39 trillion in federal debt, and what it signals about fiscal risk. They d...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how the U.S. Treasury's auction sizes are quietly reshaping the national debt picture. With the federal debt surpassing $39 trillion and the 30-year yield pushing above 5%, the Treasury is issuing more long-term debt than ever before. But auction sizes are not just about volume—they signal demand, investor appetite, and future in...

Lucas and Luna break down how the steepening yield curve — with the 30-year Treasury yield pushing above 5% — is quietly compounding the cost of servicing America's $39 trillion national debt. They explain why longer-term borrowing costs matter more than the Fed's short-term rate, how the Treasury's maturity structure has shifted, and what rising term premiums mean for future fiscal flexibility. D...

On the 100th episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore the mechanics of how the U.S. Treasury manages refinancing $39 trillion in debt. They break down the $9 trillion in maturing securities over the next twelve months, the recent auction dynamics for 10-year notes at a 4.48% yield, and why the Treasury's shift toward more short-term bills is creating rollover risk. With the 30-...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, hosts Lucas and Luna examine the 30-year Treasury yield crossing 5 percent for the first time in over a decade and what that means for the national debt trajectory. With the federal debt surpassing $39 trillion and debt-to-GDP at 122.6 percent, rising long-term borrowing costs are compounding the fiscal challenge. The hosts unpack the mechanics of debt...

Lucas and Luna break down why the 30-year Treasury yield hitting 5.05 percent is a bigger deal for the national debt than a 10-year move. They explore how locking in higher borrowing costs for three decades changes the interest expense math, what it means for the $39 trillion debt pile, and why the bond market is signaling long-term fiscal stress. With the 30-year yield up nearly 3 percent in a we...

Episode 97 of The National Debt Podcast examines how the surge in long-term Treasury yields—with the 30-year at 4.98% and the 10-year at 4.49%—is compounding the cost of servicing the $39 trillion federal debt. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of yield-driven debt growth, why the yield curve uninversion signals persistent term premiums, and how the Treasury's reliance on longer-dated issuan...

Episode 96 of The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo looks at a surprising factor in the federal debt equation: the trade deficit. As the U.S. trade gap narrows to its smallest in years, fewer dollars flow abroad, reducing foreign demand for Treasuries. With the 30-year yield rising to 4.97% and foreign holdings of U.S. debt declining, the Treasury faces a new borrowing challenge. Lucas and Luna d...

In Episode 95 of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how higher long-term Treasury yields are adding to the cost of servicing the federal debt. With the 10-year yield at 4.48 percent and the 30-year at 4.97 percent, the interest expense on America's $39 trillion in debt is accelerating. Lucas explains the math behind the rising interest burden and how a slowing economy complicates th...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a quietly explosive number: the federal government's total debt has surpassed $39 trillion. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.48 percent and the 30-year at 4.97 percent — both up sharply from just a few months ago — the cost of rolling over that mountain of debt is climbing fast. The hosts walk through the math: how a one per...

The US labor force participation rate fell to its lowest in 50 years (excluding COVID) in June 2026, just as the national debt crossed $39 trillion and debt-to-GDP hit 122.6%. Lucas and Luna explore why fewer workers means a smaller tax base, higher dependency ratios, and a structural challenge for the fiscal outlook. They connect the jobs data to the 10-year yield at 4.48% and the widening intere...

July 2026 sees an odd economic tension: the labor market is cooling sharply with just 57,000 jobs added in June and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, yet the national debt keeps climbing past $39 trillion and debt-to-GDP sits at 122.6%. Lucas and Luna dig into how weaker payrolls actually make the debt math worse — lower tax revenue, higher automatic spending, and a Fed less willing to tighten. They...

The June jobs report showed only 57,000 new payrolls and the labor force participation rate fell to its lowest in 50 years outside the pandemic. Lucas and Luna connect this to the national debt math: fewer workers means slower growth and a shrinking tax base, while interest costs keep climbing. They look at how the 10-year yield at 4.48 percent and the inverted yield curve's un-inversion complicat...

Episode 90 of The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising development: the yield curve has been uninverted for weeks, with the 10-year Treasury yielding 4.48% and the 2-year at 4.17%. Historically, an uninversion signals recession is near — not recovery. They walk through the mechanics: why the curve steepened as short-term rates stayed flat while long-term yields...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how the cooling labor market is quietly altering the fiscal math behind the national debt. With the June payrolls report showing just 57,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, they connect the dots between slower hiring, lower tax revenues, and higher automatic spending on unemployment benefits and social programs...

Episode 88 of The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo examines a quiet but significant shift in the Treasury market: foreign holders of US government debt are reducing their positions. Lucas and Luna explore recent data showing that foreign ownership of Treasuries has fallen by roughly $150 billion over the past year, even as the total national debt continues to climb. They discuss what this means...

Episode 87 of The National Debt Podcast looks at a subtle but powerful shift in the debt market: foreign official holders have reduced their US Treasury holdings by roughly $200 billion over the past year, even as Japan and China remain the largest creditors. Lucas and Luna walk through the data from the latest Treasury International Capital report, discuss why this matters for the yield curve and...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a paradox that many listeners have noticed: the federal deficit is shrinking, yet the national debt keeps climbing. They anchor the discussion in the latest data—total federal debt has reached $39 trillion as of January 2026, up more than half a trillion from a year earlier, even as the fiscal year 2025 deficit came in at $1.77...

The federal deficit shrank by roughly $40 billion in the last fiscal year, yet the national debt keeps climbing. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the math: why a narrower deficit doesn't mean the debt is under control. They look at the latest data—debt-to-GDP at 122.6 percent, the interest on reserve balances holding at 3.65 percent, and the growing gap between what the government borrow...

The U.S. national debt has hit 122.6 percent of GDP—a level economists once considered a red line for advanced economies. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what that ratio actually means, why it's ticking up even as the deficit shrinks, and whether the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.4 percent changes the math. They walk through the arithmetic: $39 trillion in debt against a $32 trillion ec...

Lucas and Luna dig into the quiet but powerful force driving the national debt higher: the accumulating interest cost on the $39 trillion total. With the thirty-year yield hovering near 4.9 percent and the federal deficit shrinking to $1.77 trillion, the hosts explain why interest payments are now the fastest-growing part of the budget. They walk through the arithmetic of debt rollover at higher r...

Episode 82 of The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo examines the growing gap between the shrinking federal deficit and the accelerating national debt. Lucas and Luna break down how interest costs on the $39 trillion debt pile are compounding even as the deficit narrows, using real data from June 2026 — including the 30-year yield at 4.86 percent and interest on reserve balances at 3.65 percent. T...

Lucas and Luna unpack a hidden driver of the national debt: the interest the Federal Reserve pays banks on their reserves. With the interest on reserve balances rate at 3.65% and over $3 trillion in reserves, these payments now cost taxpayers roughly $110 billion a year. The hosts explain how this mechanism works, why it's ballooning the debt even as the deficit shrinks, and whether the Fed has a...