The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo: Treasury, Borrowing, and Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

The national debt is over $39 trillion, but a hidden cost is growing faster than anyone expects: the interest the Federal Reserve pays on bank reserves. In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how the Fed's Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) rate, currently at 3.65 percent, adds over $200 billion annually to the debt — more than the entire budget of the Department of...

This episode of The National Debt Podcast examines a subtle but significant shift in how the Treasury is financing the national debt. With the federal debt total at $39.1 trillion and the 10-year yield at 4.40%, the Treasury has been increasingly issuing short-term Treasury bills rather than longer-term notes and bonds. Lucas and Luna explore what this means for refinancing risk, interest rate sen...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore the Federal Reserve's interest on reserve balances (IORB) rate and how it has become a hidden but powerful force in the national debt arithmetic. With the IORB at 3.65 percent and the federal debt topping $39 trillion, the Fed is effectively paying banks to park reserves, adding billions to the annual interest bill. The hosts bre...

Lucas and Luna explore a hidden driver of the national debt: the interest the Fed pays on bank reserves. As the interest on reserve balances sits at 3.65 percent and the federal debt tops $39 trillion, this expense has become a significant and often overlooked cost. They break down how the Fed's monetary policy tool has ballooned the interest burden, why it's not captured in traditional deficit fi...

The federal deficit narrowed by about $40 billion this year – that sounds like good news. But Lucas and Luna dig into why the interest expense on the national debt actually rose by a bigger number: net interest payments hit roughly $1.2 trillion last fiscal year, and the 30-year yield sitting near 4.86 percent means those costs will keep climbing. Using fresh data from June 26, 2026, they explain...

The federal deficit is shrinking — down about forty billion from last year — but net interest costs just crossed a trillion dollars annually for the first time. In this episode, Lucas and Luna walk through the numbers from the latest Treasury data, explain why falling yields haven't helped as much as expected, and discuss how the growing interest burden changes the fiscal arithmetic even as the he...

Lucas and Luna break down the Fed's interest on reserve balances (IORB) tool and how it's reshaping the national debt picture. With the federal debt at $39 trillion and the Fed funds rate at 3.63%, the Fed is effectively paying banks to hold reserves. They explore why this policy exists, how it interacts with the Treasury's borrowing costs, and what it means for taxpayers. A specific look at a tec...

The ten-year Treasury yield has fallen twenty basis points in the last month, settling near four-point-four percent as of late June 2026. Meanwhile, the federal debt tops thirty-nine trillion dollars with a deficit just under one-point-eight trillion. On this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how falling yields alter the government's borrowing arithmetic: lower interest...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the improving federal deficit picture may be hiding a bigger long-term risk. With the deficit shrinking from $1.8 trillion to $1.77 trillion, total debt continues rising toward $40 trillion and debt-to-GDP hits 122.8%. The hosts drill into the widening gap between the 10-year and 2-year yield spread, which just hit 34 basis p...

The federal deficit shrank by roughly forty billion dollars in fiscal 2025, and the national debt-to-GDP ratio still ticked up. Lucas and Luna unpack why—tracing the math through interest costs, GDP growth, and the Treasury's borrowing calendar. They look at the ten-year yield hovering near four and a half percent and the thirty-year near five, and consider what happens if the Fed's new chair face...

The US federal deficit narrowed by $41 billion in fiscal 2025, falling to $1.77 trillion even as the debt-to-GDP ratio ticked up to 122.8 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the counterintuitive mechanics: falling pandemic-era spending, a resilient labor market boosting tax receipts, and the quiet role of interest-rate normalization. They examine why the improvement hasn't eased long-term borrowing pre...

After more than two years of inversion, the yield curve has finally normalized. Lucas and Luna explain what that means for the national debt, federal borrowing costs, and the broader economy. They break down the mechanics of the 10-year-2-year spread, why the short end fell faster than the long end, and how this shift changes the fiscal arithmetic for Treasury. Using current data from June 2026, t...

Lucas and Luna explore how inflation quietly erodes the real value of US government debt, reducing the burden on taxpayers—but at a cost. They discuss the current 30-year yield near 4.95 percent, the 10-year at 4.49 percent, and a federal debt-to-GDP ratio of 122.8 percent. Using the concept of financial repression, they examine how negative real yields (with inflation running above nominal rates)...

Lucas and Luna home in on a yield curve angle that the national debt conversation almost always overlooks: the three-month Treasury bill. With the 3-month yield at 3.83 percent and the 30-year at 4.93 percent, the spread is barely over a hundred basis points. That tightness reveals something structural about how the Treasury is funding itself. The hosts walk through why short-term borrowing has ba...

Lucas and Luna examine why the 30-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.90 percent even as the Federal Reserve cuts rates, and how that persistent long-term borrowing cost is reshaping the national debt arithmetic. They unpack the bond market's skepticism about future inflation and fiscal discipline, look at the widening gap between short-term and long-term yields, and explain why the Treasury's...

Lucas and Luna explore why the narrowing 10-year-2-year Treasury yield spread—now at 27 basis points—is a more telling signal for federal borrowing costs than the headline $39 trillion debt total. They unpack how the flat curve complicates the Treasury's refinancing strategy, why the Fed's new interest-on-reserve rate at 3.65% adds a twist, and what the 30-year yield holding at 4.93% means for lon...

In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack an overlooked but powerful shift in how the Federal Reserve manages its balance sheet: the overnight reverse repo facility is now paying banks more than the fed funds rate. With the 10-year yield at 4.49 percent and the 30-year at 4.93 percent, this new floor on short-term rates changes the arithmetic of federal borrowing costs. L...

The 30-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5 percent, and that changes the math on federal borrowing in a way that few people outside the bond market appreciate. Lucas and Luna walk through how the yield on long-term debt directly affects the government's interest bill, using the latest data from June 20, 2026. They break down why a 30-year yield at 4.93 percent means every new dollar of long-ter...

Lucas and Luna explore the Fed's new standing repo facility and how it's reshaping the national debt arithmetic. With Kevin Warsh now at the helm, the Fed has rolled out a permanent repo window for primary dealers, aiming to prevent the kind of overnight funding stress that spiked in 2019. But there's a twist: the facility pays interest at the top of the Fed's target range, creating a soft floor t...

In episode 61 of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the implications of Kevin Warsh's first Federal Reserve meeting as chair. With the 10-year yield at 4.49% and the yield curve still inverted at 27 basis points, they explore how Warsh's hawkish opening statement and the Fed's new SEP signal a higher-for-longer rate path that directly impacts federal borrowing costs. They also exam...

Lucas and Luna unpack the fiscal landscape Kevin Warsh inherits as the new Fed chair, focusing on a specific tension that previous episodes haven't covered: the way a shrinking deficit — the deficit actually shrank to $1.77 trillion in fiscal 2025 — combines with rising debt service costs to create a policy paradox. They anchor on the 10-year yield's recent drop to 4.43 percent, the 2-year sitting...

This episode examines how Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Federal Reserve chair affects the US Treasury's borrowing costs and long-term debt trajectory. With the 30-year yield at 4.93% and the debt-to-GDP ratio at 122.6%, Lucas and Luna walk through the specific mechanics of how a hawkish Fed chair influences auction demand, rollover risk, and the fiscal arithmetic. They discuss Warsh's known...

In Episode 58 of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine a quiet shift in the buyer base for US Treasuries. Foreign official holdings have dropped by roughly $300 billion over the past two years, even as the federal debt crossed $38.5 trillion and the debt-to-GDP ratio hit 122.6 percent. Lucas walks through who has been selling—Japan, China, and even some European allies—and who is stepp...

The yield curve is flattening again, and this time it has implications for how the Treasury manages its record $38.5 trillion debt portfolio. Lucas and Luna walk through the mechanics of a flattening curve when the Fed is at a pause, and why the 2-year/10-year spread of just 38 basis points forces the government to borrow more at the short end, raising refinancing risk. They drill into the latest...

Lucas and Luna examine how the 30-year Treasury yield hovering near 5 percent is reshaping the federal government's borrowing strategy and long-term fiscal outlook. They break down the impact on debt service costs, the shifting composition of Treasury issuance, and what higher long-term rates mean for the national debt trajectory. Using current data from June 2026, they explore how the yield curve...