The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy

Lucas and Luna unpack a worrying trend in the labor market: long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or more—is rising even as headline jobless claims stay low. They dig into the April data, where job openings rebounded to 7.6 million yet long-term unemployment hit levels not seen since 2021. Lucas explains what this 'duration problem' means for the Fed's rate path, wage growth, and...

Job openings in the U.S. surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years. Lucas and Luna dig into what this JOLTS number really means—why it jumped while unemployment stayed at 4.3 percent, how the Fed is reading it, and whether this is a sign of strength or a statistical mirage. They break down the gap between openings and hires, the role of quits vs. layoffs, and what it mea...

The JOLTS data for April 2026 showed a massive surge in job openings to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years. But that headline number tells a different story when you dig into the industry breakdown and the quits rate. Lucas and Luna unpack why this 'job openations' spike is actually a signal of labor market mismatch, not strength, and what it means for the Fed's rate path. They also disc...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dissect the surprising April JOLTS data showing job openings surged to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years, even as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent. They explore what this disconnect means for the labor market, wage growth, and the Fed's rate-cut timeline, and discuss how the conflict in Iran is creating a two-speed economy. Specific number...

The April JOLTS report showed job openings jumping to 7.62 million, the highest in nearly two years. But the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what's really going on in the labor market — a surge in openings concentrated in a few industries, alongside a flat unemployment rate that suggests workers are staying put. They explore the 'mismatch' between job availabi...

April's job openings surged 10.6 percent to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years, just as the Fed holds rates at 3.62 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into whether this JOLTS spike is a genuine re-acceleration in labor demand or a statistical ghost driven by industry mix and seasonal adjustment quirks. They walk through the numbers: openings jumped 730,000 month-over-month while the unemploymen...

The Federal Reserve has cut rates to 3.62 percent, but core inflation is still sticky at 3.3 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the paradox: why the Fed is easing even though its preferred inflation gauge remains above target. They break down the data—including the lagging effect of housing costs and the impact of the Iran war on energy prices—and discuss what this means for your sav...

Lucas and Luna unpack the real economic cost of the Iran conflict: an extra $450 per household on gas and energy bills in 2026. They trace how this 'geopolitical tax' flows through supply chains, hits consumer spending, and complicates the Fed's rate-cut calculus. With inflation sticky at 3.3% and energy inflation proving persistent, they ask whether the Fed can afford to keep cutting—or if the wa...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna break down how the Iran war is driving up energy costs far beyond the gas pump. With the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropping to 2.38% even as core PCE sticks at 3.3%, they explore the paradox of falling market inflation expectations versus rising real-world costs. They examine why utility bills are climbing faster than headline CPI, how Fed o...

The U.S. personal saving rate dropped to 3.2% in April 2026, even as disposable income rose 0.4%. Lucas and Luna drill into the paradox: why households are spending more of each paycheck despite a strong job market. They examine the 'double scar' from the 2021-2023 inflation shock and the war-driven energy cost jump of $450 per household, plus the rise of buy now, pay later as a structural shift i...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data showing job openings have dropped to 6.87 million, the lowest since early 2021, while the unemployment rate holds at 4.3 percent. They explore what this 'cooling without cracking' labor market means for the Fed's rate path, consumer confidence, and the broader economy. With core PCE still sticky at 3.3 percent and geopolitical shocks from the Iran war...

Housing costs are the biggest component of core inflation, and they are not cooling as fast as the Fed expected. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the April 2026 CPI and PCE data, focusing on owners' equivalent rent and shelter costs. They explain why OER is sticky, how the Fed's rate cuts might actually keep housing inflation elevated, and what that means for the consumer sentiment paradox...

On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect between markets' optimism and the persistent core inflation data. With the Fed's preferred PCE gauge showing annual core inflation at 3.3% and the ten-year breakeven rate holding at 2.39%, they ask whether the bond market is actually pricing in a longer fight than equity traders realize. They discuss the energy inflation shock...

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE — came in at 3.3% annualized in April, exactly as expected. But in this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna explain why that 'as expected' number is actually a problem. They break down the double scar of consumer trauma from the Iran war and past inflation spikes, using fresh data on energy persistence from Fed's Goolsbee and the labor market's...

The Federal Reserve faces a tough choice in May 2026: core PCE inflation is running at 3.3 percent, but the real economy is softening. Lucas and Luna examine the data behind yesterday's Fed minutes and what it means for markets. They break down why the Fed might cut rates even with inflation above target, focusing on the divergence between services inflation and goods deflation. The episode also c...

Lucas and Luna break down why the Federal Reserve is stuck between two different inflation stories—sticky core services versus cooling goods—and how that split explains the bond market's recent rally despite hot CPI data. They walk through the April PCE print released today, the divergence between the ten-year yield and breakeven rates, and what Chicago Fed President Goolsbee's comments about pers...

Lucas and Luna unpack a surprising driver of persistent inflation: auto insurance premiums. With CPI still running hot at 3.4% year-over-year, insurance costs have surged over 20% annually, accounting for a disproportionate share of core services inflation. They explore why this is happening — from repair costs and supply chains to state regulation — and what it means for the Fed's next move. With...

Consumer sentiment is at a record low, yet small caps are rallying and GDP is growing. Lucas and Luna unpack the divergence between how Americans feel and how markets are behaving. With the S&P 500 at 7,511 and the Russell 2000 surging 3.6% in a week, they drill into the data: sentiment indexes versus hard economic numbers, the role of inflation expectations, and what it means for Fed policy. Luca...

Lucas and Luna dig into the quiet but powerful signal flashing from corporate dividend announcements. With the S&P 500 hitting 7,519 and small caps surging 6% in a week, companies are sitting on record cash — but not paying it out. Lucas walks through the data: dividend growth slowed to its lowest in four years in Q1 2026, even as buybacks hit a new high. They explore what that says about manageme...

Consumer sentiment hit a record low in May 2026, yet the S&P 500 is trading above 7,500 and small caps are surging. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect between how Americans feel and what the data says. They dig into the breakdown: sentiment is cratering because of inflation from the Iran war, but spending holds up because the job market hasn't cracked yet. They walk through the actual numbers —...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch on record. Now it's suddenly steepening, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 23 basis points in a week while short-term rates hold steady. Lucas and Luna break down what the bond market is actually saying: Is the Fed finally winning the inflation fight, or is the curve signaling something else entirely? They dig into t...

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. just hit a record low — even though the job market is solid, GDP is growing, and stocks are near all-time highs. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect, looking at how the Iran war is driving inflation fears, how the bond market is pricing in a Fed that's stuck, and why the average person isn't feeling the economic strength that the data shows. They break down what's...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but something shifted this week. Lucas and Luna break down the specific move in the 2-year versus 10-year Treasury spread, why the curve is steepening even as the Fed holds rates steady, and what it means for the economic outlook. They point to concrete data: the 10-year yield fell 1.4% in five days while the 2-year rose slightly, compressing a...

Episode 10 of The Macro Memo digs into the small cap surge that has gone almost unnoticed as big tech stalls. Lucas and Luna examine the Russell 2000's 3.4% weekly gain against the S&P 500's 1.0%, what it says about the economy, and why bond yields are signaling a rate cut even as inflation stays sticky. With real GDP growth at 2.0% and consumer sentiment at a record low, they ask if small caps ar...

The Russell 2000 just jumped 3.4 percent in a week while the S&P 500 eked out only 1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the data to ask whether this is a temporary rotation or the start of a lasting shift. They look at what small-cap outperformance usually signals about the economic cycle, and they zoom in on the Fed's current rate stance and the jobs market to see if the 'animal spirits' are really...