The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy

Lucas and Luna break down why the euro is falling despite the European Central Bank signaling rate cuts could come early. With ECB President Lagarde leaving the door open to an early exit as French political uncertainty swirls, the euro has dropped to multi-year lows against the dollar. They explore how this affects U.S. import prices, the Fed's policy path, and why the 10-year yield at 4.57 perce...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising drop in the U.S. labor force participation rate, which hit its lowest level since the 1970s outside of COVID. They connect the dots between the June payrolls miss of just 57,000 jobs and the 4.2% unemployment rate, questioning whether discouraged workers are permanently exiting. The pair also examines the divergence between...

Lucas and Luna explore the surprising weakness in the euro during mid-2026, even as the European Central Bank keeps rates elevated and Christine Lagarde hints at an early exit. They examine the role of French political uncertainty, diverging inflation trends between the US and Europe, and what the euro's decline means for global trade and Fed policy. With the euro down nearly 5 percent against the...

In this episode of The Macro Memo with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising divergence in 2026: gold is quietly outperforming the tech-heavy NASDAQ. With the S&P 500 near 7,545 and the NASDAQ at 26,181, gold has rallied nearly 15% year-to-date while real yields remain elevated at 4.53% on the 10-year Treasury. They examine the drivers — central bank buying, sticky inflation above 3%, and a...

Episode 104 of The Macro Memo with Fexingo: The Russell 2000 is down almost 2% over the past five days while the S&P 500 and Dow hover near flat. Lucas and Luna break down why small-cap stocks are underperforming despite a labor market that just added 57,000 jobs and an unemployment rate that dipped to 4.2 percent. They focus on the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.57 percent — a level that hi...

The economy grew at 2.1 percent annualised in the first quarter of 2026, up from 0.5 percent at the end of last year — yet most of the conversation has been about the soft jobs market and the Fed stuck at 3.63 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the real GDP number, what drove the rebound, and whether consumers or businesses deserve the credit. They look at the composition of growth: personal consump...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch since the 1970s — and it just uninverted. But instead of a recession signal, this time the curve is normalizing because long-term rates are rising, not because the Fed is cutting. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of what's happening in the Treasury market as of July 2026: the 2-year yield at 3.72%, the 10-year at 4.5...

Lucas and Luna examine how U.S. consumer spending continues to rise at 5.6% annually while real disposable personal income growth lags at 3.9%. Using the latest personal income and outlays data, they explore the widening gap, the role of credit card debt which recently hit $1.4 trillion, and the drawdown of pandemic-era savings. They ask whether this spending pattern is sustainable and what it mea...

In episode 100 of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data to understand what a small rise in job openings really means. With the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent and payrolls growth slowing to just 57,000 in June, the hosts ask whether the labor market is cooling gradually or heading for a sharper slowdown. They look at the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers, how it...

Episode 99 of The Macro Memo examines why the Russell 2000 is trailing the S&P 500 despite a strong economy and a recent run-up in large-cap stocks. With the index flat over the past five days and the S&P 500 up 1.3 percent, Lucas and Luna dig into the structural factors: higher interest rates hurting small-cap margins, a labor market that favors large employers, and a shift in investor preference...

Episode 98 of The Macro Memo dives into a quiet but telling number: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has been locked at 2.23 percent for weeks, even as core PCE and CPI tick higher. Lucas and Luna unpack why the bond market's inflation expectations aren't budging — and what that means for the Fed's next move. They walk through the mechanics of TIPS and nominal Treasuries, the role of liquidity...

The S&P 500 hit 7,483 on July 3, 2026, up 1.8% in a week, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.5% over the same period. Lucas and Luna drill into why small-cap stocks are getting left behind. They examine the yield curve environment — with the 10-year Treasury at 4.49% and the 2-year at 4.23% — and how higher borrowing costs hit smaller companies harder. They also look at the labor market: June payrolls...

The yield curve has re-steepened after one of the longest inversions in history, but Lucas and Luna break down why this normalization might not signal a recession. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.49% and the 2-year at 4.23%, the spread has turned positive. Yet job creation slowed to just 57,000 in June, and the labor force participation rate hit a 50-year low outside of COVID. Lucas connects the do...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the paradox of the June jobs report: payrolls added only 57,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent and jobless claims remain low. They explore what the declining labor force participation rate—now at its lowest in 50 years outside the pandemic—means for the Fed's interest rate path. With the Fed holding rates at 3.63 perce...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch since the 1970s. But now it's rapidly steepening toward uninversion, and history says that's when trouble actually hits. Lucas and Luna break down why the 2-year/10-year spread matters more than the curve flattening, what six previous uninversions tell us about what follows, and how this time's unusual inversion duration ch...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna tackle a puzzling contradiction in the latest jobs data: the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent in June, yet the labor force participation rate fell to its lowest level in 50 years outside the COVID era. They examine the details behind the headline payroll gain of just 57,000 jobs, the role of discouraged workers who have stopped looking, and...

In Episode 92 of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising drop in the labor force participation rate, which hit its lowest level in 50 years outside the pandemic era. With unemployment falling to 4.2% but payrolls growing by only 57,000 in June, they explore why workers are leaving the job market even as wages rise. Using fresh data from July 3, 2026, they examine the implications fo...

The labor force participation rate just fell to a 50-year low outside of pandemic-era lows, even as the jobless rate dropped to 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack why workers are leaving at a time when payrolls grew only 57,000 in June. They look at the divergence between the household and establishment surveys, what falling participation means for wage pressure, and how the Fed reads this data at...

The U.S. labor force participation rate just fell to its lowest in 50 years outside the pandemic era. In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the June jobs report — only 57,000 new payrolls versus expectations — and the participation drop that makes the unemployment rate decline to 4.2% look better than it really is. They connect the dots to the Fed's 3.63% rate stance, the 10-yea...

The federal funds rate has been flat at 3.63 percent since June, even as inflation remains sticky and the labor market sends mixed signals. Lucas and Luna dig into the Fed's dilemma: with core PCE at 130.1 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent, the data doesn't clearly call for a cut or a hike. They examine the yield curve's continued inversion, the drop in the 10-year breakeven to 2.23...

The bond market and the jobs market are sending mixed signals. On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the June ADP payroll miss — just 98,000 private jobs added, well below expectations — even as the ten-year Treasury yield climbs toward four and a half percent. They explore what's driving the disconnect: sticky core services inflation, the Fed's elevated interest on reserve bala...

Core PCE has been stuck above 3 percent for months, yet the 10-year Treasury yield is falling. Lucas and Luna dig into the data to explain why bond traders are betting the Fed wins the inflation fight anyway, and what the breakdown between real yields and breakevens is signaling about the economy's direction. #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #Inflation #CorePCE #FederalReserve #RealYields #BreakevenRat...

On July 1, 2026, the S&P 500 closed above 7,500 for the first time, with the NASDAQ hitting 26,214 and the Dow at 52,319. Lucas and Luna dig into what this milestone actually means for investors — beyond the headline. Lucas walks through historical data: the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio is now hovering around 22, above the 25-year average of 19.5, but still below the dot-com peak of 31. Luna...

Initial jobless claims dropped to 215,000 in mid-June, the lowest level in months. Lucas and Luna unpack what this number actually means for the labor market—whether it signals tighter conditions or just seasonal noise. They contrast the claims drop with the still-elevated unemployment rate of 4.3 percent and discuss what the Fed sees in these crosscurrents. Specific data points include the five-w...

Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising trend that's reshaping the U.S. job market: labor force participation is creeping higher even as the unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent. With nonfarm payrolls at 159 million and job openings jumping to 7.6 million, they explore why more people entering the workforce isn't the sign of weakness some think it is. Drawing on recent JOLTS data, wage growth holdin...