The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy

Average hourly earnings just ticked up to $37.50, but core PCE inflation is stubbornly at 3.4%. Lucas and Luna unpack a paradox that has economists divided: wage growth that isn't feeding price spikes. They trace the disconnect through productivity data, sectoral shifts, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A close look at whether the labor market can keep delivering raises without reigniting...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the widening divergence between core CPI and core PCE inflation. Core CPI hit 336.1 in May, up 3.4% year-over-year, while core PCE sits at 130.1 with a 2.8% annual rate. Lucas explains why the Fed focuses on PCE — it accounts for substitution effects and covers more goods — and why the gap matters for rate expectations. They discuss what t...

The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped sharply over the past week, even as core inflation remains stubbornly above 3 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the paradox: bond markets are pricing in a growth scare, not an inflation victory. They examine the recent 10-year breakeven rate slipping to 2.20 percent, the yield curve inversion deepening, and what the divergence between the 2-year and 10-year...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest core PCE reading of 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023, and explore why inflation is proving stickier than the Fed anticipated. They examine the divergence between goods and services prices, the role of housing costs, and what the 10-year breakeven rate of 2.20 percent signals about market expectations. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, the conver...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest inflation data: core PCE hit 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023. They discuss what this means for the Fed's next move, whether the bond market is buying the narrative, and why the 10-year breakeven rate is actually dropping. With the fed funds rate at 3.63%, the hosts explore the tension between sticky inflation and a w...

Lucas and Luna break down the May core PCE inflation print of 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023. They discuss what this means for the Fed's next move, why the 10-year breakeven rate is falling despite hot inflation data, and how job openings and wage growth complicate the picture. The hosts also explore whether the Fed's current 3.63 percent funds rate is tight enough to cool the economy...

Episode 77 of The Macro Memo digs into the latest core PCE inflation reading of 3.4 percent — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down why this number matters more than CPI, how the 10-year breakeven at 2.21 percent tells a different story, and what it means for the Fed's next move. They also explore the contradiction between sticky services inflation and easing goods prices, and...

On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate — currently at 2.21 percent — and explain why it's sending a more reassuring signal than the headline CPI or core PCE numbers. They unpack the mechanics of TIPS versus nominal Treasuries, why the breakeven has barely budged even as the core PCE hit 3.4 percent in May, and what this divergence means for...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May core inflation reading of 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023. They explore how this complicates the Fed's path, especially with the federal funds rate at 3.63 percent and the ten-year breakeven dropping below 2.2 percent. The hosts discuss whether the bond market is signaling a recession or simply adjusting expectations, a...

On June 25, 2026, the Russell 2000 is up 2.4 percent over five days while the Nasdaq has dropped 2.1 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack what this small-cap outperformance means for the economy, the Fed, and recession odds. They examine the data: job openings jumped to 7.6 million, factory job cuts are near 2008 levels, and the 10-year breakeven is falling. Is the market pricing a soft landing or a rot...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking disconnect: factory job cuts in June 2026 are at levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid shutdowns, yet the headline jobs market remains strong. Using the latest data including JOLTS job openings at 7.6 million and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate, they explore what's driving the manufacturing slowdown and w...

Factory job cuts in June hit levels not seen since 2008 and 2020, even as overall job openings rebounded to 7.6 million. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect: why manufacturing is bleeding workers while services hiring stays robust. They look at the yield curve, the Fed's 3.63 percent rate, and what the data says about structural change versus cyclical slowdown. Plus, a real-talk moment about wh...

New data shows factory job cuts in June 2026 are running at levels not seen since the financial crisis and the early pandemic. Lucas and Luna dig into the S&P report, what it means for manufacturing employment, and whether this is a warning sign for the broader economy. They examine the 159 million nonfarm payrolls figure against the JOLTS job openings spike, and ask if the Federal Reserve is payi...

In episode 70 of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest slide in the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—now at 2.23 percent, down from over 2.45 just a few months ago. They explore what this market-based inflation expectation says about the Fed's next move, especially with the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and real GDP growth crawling at 1.6 percent. Could the breakeven be signali...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but recently the 2-year Treasury yield jumped above 4.29 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.51 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what this persistent inversion means for the economy, especially with the Fed holding rates at 3.63 percent and inflation still above target. They discuss how the curve has historically predicted recessions, why this...

Job openings surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, but hiring remains sluggish. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data to understand what's really happening in the labor market. They discuss the gap between openings and hires, why quits are low, and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the fed funds rate at 3.63% and inflation still above target, the hosts explore whether the labor market...

The Fed has held the federal funds rate at 3.63 percent since May, and while headline inflation is slowly cooling, a less obvious casualty is emerging: small business lending. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine new data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showing that banks are tightening credit standards for small firms at the fastest pace since 2020. With the prime rate tied t...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest jobless claims and JOLTS data to understand a puzzling labor market: initial claims dropped to 226,000, but job openings surged to 7.6 million while hiring remains sluggish. They explore why employers are posting more positions but not filling them, and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63% and inflation still above target, the...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data showing job openings surged to 7.6 million in April while hiring remains tepid. They explore why employers are posting more roles but not filling them, connecting the dots to wage growth, the Fed's rate calculus, and the broader labor market mystery. With the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3 percent and average hourly e...

The US economy has 159 million payroll jobs and 7.6 million open positions, yet the unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent and job seekers are struggling. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data from April 2026 to understand why record-high job openings aren't translating into easy hiring — and what the mismatch between openings and hires means for wages, inflation, and the Fed's next move. They exp...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna take a deep dive into one of the most confusing signals in the current economy: job openings are spiking, but hiring isn't keeping pace. With JOLTS data for April showing 7.6 million openings — up sharply from 6.9 million the month before — the hosts explore what's driving the disconnect. They look at the role of worker skill mismatches, the impact...

Lucas and Luna unpack Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chairman on June 18, 2026, and what his approach signals for monetary policy. They zero in on the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.25 percent, and what that says about the market's view of inflation expectations under new leadership. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and CPI at 4.2 percent, the hosts discuss whe...

This episode dives into one of the most telling signals the bond market is sending right now: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has dropped to 2.26 percent, well below the current CPI reading of 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna explore what this gap means for the Federal Reserve's next move, why the breakeven is falling even as headline inflation remains sticky, and how the Fed's new chairman Kevin...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising April JOLTS report, which showed job openings jumping to 7.6 million from 6.9 million. They explore why this surge matters for the Fed's inflation fight, how it complicates the path to rate cuts, and what it reveals about the labor market's resilience. With the fed funds rate at 3.63% and core CPI still elevated, the hosts...

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.29 percent, its lowest in months, even as the consumer price index sits at 4.2 percent year-over-year and wholesale prices just surged 1.1 percent in May. Lucas and Luna break down what this divergence means: the bond market is signaling that inflation expectations are cooling, but the real economy and the Fed are still dealing with sticky price...