The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the bond market's recent rally and what it tells us about where the Fed is heading. With the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.43 percent — down more than a full percentage point from its 2025 high — the fixed-income crowd is pricing in a pivot. Lucas walks through the mechanics: falling breakeven inflation, the 2-year versus 10-year spread, and the Fed'...

With the S&P 500 hitting a fresh all-time high and the ten-year Treasury yield dropping 2.6% in a week, markets are sending two contradictory messages about the economy. Lucas and Luna break down the divergence: stocks are pricing in a goldilocks scenario of steady growth and eventual rate cuts, while bonds are signaling rising recession risk. They examine the recent data—CPI at 4.2%, the Fed stuc...

The Federal Reserve faces a tough spot: the fed funds rate sits at 3.6 percent while inflation runs at 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the real rate trap—how high rates aren't high enough to cool prices. Using fresh data from June 2026, they explore why the Fed can't cut without reigniting inflation but can't hike without choking growth. They look at the JOLTS job openings surge to 7.6 millio...

Lucas and Luna dig into the contradiction at the heart of Fed policy in mid-2026: the federal funds rate sits at 3.63 percent, but with CPI running at 4.2 percent, the real interest rate is negative. They break down why that matters for the economy, what it signals about the Fed's next move, and how the ECB's recent rate hike complicates the picture further. Using data on the 10-year breakeven inf...

Episode 54 of The Macro Memo tackles a surprising disconnect in the bond market: the yield curve has been steepening sharply this spring, but the steepening is happening for the wrong reasons. Lucas and Luna dissect the divergence between the two-year yield, which is actually falling amid rate-cut expectations, and the ten-year yield, which is climbing on supply fears and term premium repricing. T...

Lucas and Luna dig into the Federal Reserve's current bind: inflation running at 4.2 percent annually, the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, and real GDP growth just 1.6 percent. With the Fed's policy rate still below inflation, real interest rates are negative—something that hasn't happened this deep into a tightening cycle in decades. They examine the May CPI print, the flat unemployment...

Lucas and Luna dig into the widening gap between consumer confidence and actual spending. With inflation at 4.2% and real GDP growth just 1.6%, Americans are still swiping cards at a pace that has the Fed puzzled. They examine the May retail sales data, the savings rate drop, and what it means for the Fed's next move. Plus, they compare the current environment to the 1970s 'conundrum' that fooled...

The April JOLTS report showed job openings jumping to 7.62 million, a massive rebound from March's 6.89 million. Lucas and Luna break down what this means for the Fed's next move, why it complicates the inflation fight, and how it connects to the 4.2% CPI reading. They also explore whether this is a genuine labor market strength signal or a statistical noise problem. Specific numbers, clear analys...

In Episode 50 of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine the growing disconnect between the Federal Reserve's policy rate at 3.62 percent and headline inflation at 4.2 percent. With the ECB hiking for the first time since 2023 and wholesale prices surging 1.1 percent in May, the conversation focuses on whether the Fed is now behind the curve. Lucas breaks down the real fed funds rate math, the sign...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026 — its first since 2023 — and what it means for the Federal Reserve's next move. With US CPI at 4.2 percent and wholesale prices surging 1.1 percent in May, the hosts explore how the Iran conflict is driving energy costs higher on both sides of the Atlantic. Lucas explains why th...

The May CPI print hit 4.2%, but the bigger story might be the wholesale inflation surprise. Producer prices rose 1.1% in May, driven by a surge in energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why this matters for the Fed's next move, how the ECB's rate hike complicates the picture, and why the bond market's breakeven inflation rate is telling a different story. They also look...

This episode of The Macro Memo drills into the wholesale inflation surprise from May 2026 — the Producer Price Index came in at 1.1 percent, driven largely by energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down how this upstream price pressure is affecting the Fed's rate path, despite signs of cooling in consumer expectations. They discuss the implications for the ten-year breakeven...

On June 11, 2026, the European Central Bank hiked interest rates for the first time since 2023, a direct response to energy price surges linked to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why this matters for American inflation, the Fed's next move, and the global yield curve. They discuss the ECB's decision in the context of US CPI hitting 4.2%, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rising to...

Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May, the highest reading in three years. Lucas and Luna break down the CPI print released this morning, what's driving the acceleration — shelter and energy are the big culprits — and why this complicates the Fed's rate-cut timeline. They also look at the bond market's reaction: the ten-year yield hit 4.54% and the two-year is at 4.26%, deepening the yield cur...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine the growing disconnect between consumer confidence and actual spending. With the New York Fed's household financial anxiety index hitting a four-year high in June 2026, but retail sales still holding up, the hosts break down what's driving this paradox. They look at the May CPI print of 4.2% annual inflation—the highest in three years—and h...

While headlines focus on a tight labor market and sticky services inflation, U.S. manufacturing has been contracting for 23 consecutive months. Lucas and Luna unpack why the factory sector keeps shrinking even as the broader economy grows, what it means for the Fed's rate path, and why the divergence between goods and services has become the defining puzzle of 2026. They cite the ISM Manufacturing...

While the unemployment rate holds at 4.3 percent and job openings have rebounded sharply to 7.6 million, a quieter trend is reshaping the labor market: the number of Americans working part-time for economic reasons has climbed to levels not seen outside a recession since 2021. Lucas and Luna unpack the Bureau of Labor Statistics' underemployment data, explain why the U-6 rate matters more than the...

The yield curve has been inverted for nearly three years, the longest stretch in modern history. Now it's beginning to steepen again, but GDP is still growing and unemployment is 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of this curve, what the 2-10 year spread is actually signaling, and why the old recession rule might not apply this time. They look at the ten-year Treasury at 4.55 per...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking new data point: the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations shows household financial worries at their highest level since July 2022. They connect this to the gap between strong aggregate economic data and rising personal anxiety, referencing the 4.3% unemployment rate, the 4.55% ten-year yield, and the 7.6 million job op...

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine a confusing signal in the latest economic data: average hourly earnings are up to $37.50, accelerating at a 3.8 percent annual rate, yet core PCE inflation is stuck at 3.3 percent. They unpack the question on every macro investor's mind — are higher wages feeding into sticky services inflation, or is the economy just absorbing the cost with...

Long-term interest rates are rising even as the Fed holds short rates steady. The yield curve has inverted for over two years, but stock markets are near highs. In this episode, Lucas and Luna sift through the data on what the bond market is actually signaling. They look at the spread between the 10-year Treasury at 4.54 percent and the 2-year at 4.28 percent, the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.62 perc...

Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 jobs report data, digging into the payrolls number that beat expectations and the long-term unemployment surge that markets are undervaluing. They discuss what the 4.3 percent unemployment rate actually signals, why job openings jumped to 7.6 million, and how the Fed is likely to interpret the conflicting signals. A focused look at one labor market paradox th...

With the May jobs report dropping tomorrow, Lucas and Luna break down what the data is likely to show and why markets might be misreading the trend. They focus on a key tension: job openings have surged past 7.6 million, but long-term unemployment is also climbing. The hosts explain how these two signals coexist and what they mean for the Fed's next move. They also examine the ADP private payrolls...

The unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, historically low. But beneath that headline number, long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or more—has jumped nearly 20 percent since last year. Lucas and Luna dig into the May jobs data, the JOLTS surge to 7.6 million openings, and the structural mismatch keeping workers on the sidelines. They explore why the Fed's rate-cutting path gets...

With the May jobs report due Friday and long-term unemployment rising, Lucas and Luna dig into the specific disconnect between headline payrolls and the hidden deterioration in labor force quality. The unemployment rate has stayed flat at 4.3 percent for months, but initial jobless claims just jumped to 225,000 — the highest since early 2025. Meanwhile, the JOLTS data showed a surprise surge in jo...