The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest GDP and CPI data to understand why the Fed is stuck at 3.65 percent interest rates even as inflation stays above target. With real GDP growth at an annualized 2.00 percent, consumer sentiment hitting record lows, and the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.40, the hosts explore whether the economy is in a 'goldilocks' scenario or a stagflation-lite trap. Lucas...

Lucas and Luna examine how the AI-driven economy is reshaping opportunities for blue-collar workers. With the S&P 500 at 7,473 and the Russell 2000 up 3.4% in five days, small-cap gains signal a rotation into domestic industrials and services. Core CPI at 335.4 and a 10-year breakeven of 2.40 show persistent inflation, but job openings fell to 6.866 million and hourly earnings rose to $37.40. Luca...

Lucas and Luna break down the stunning May consumer sentiment reading — a record low that caught even the most bearish economists off guard. They connect the dots to the Iran war's impact on energy prices, the bond market's inflation expectations, and what this means for new Fed chair Kevin Warsh's first policy decision. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.57 percent and the breakeven inflation...

Episode 5 of The Macro Memo digs into the CNBC headline that the AI economy is rewriting the American Dream, specifically focusing on blue-collar workers. Lucas and Luna discuss how automation and AI are reshaping labor markets, with job openings (JOLTS) down to 6.866 million and average hourly earnings at $37.40. They explore why blue-collar workers might be poised to win, and what that means for...

With Kevin Warsh set to be sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on Friday, Episode 4 of The Macro Memo examines the bond market signals he inherits. Lucas and Luna break down what the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.61 percent and the flattening yield curve mean for the Fed's next move. They discuss the 'bond vigilante' thesis, recent CPI and core PCE data, and whether the market is forcing the Fed's ha...

With Kevin Warsh set to be sworn in as Fed chair on Friday, the bond market is sending a clear message: the ten-year yield has jumped to 4.57 percent, and the two-year is at 4.22. Lucas and Luna break down what this steepening yield curve signals about inflation expectations, the possibility of a July rate hike, and how Warsh's first days could shape market sentiment. They also look at the recent...

Lucas and Luna dissect the April 2026 jobs report, which showed payrolls jumping more than expected but also contained several red flags for the economy. With the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3%, consumer sentiment at a record low, and the Fed holding rates steady, Lucas argues that this is the kind of data that paralyzes central bankers rather than guiding them. Luna pushes back on whether the la...

On the debut episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack why bond yields are surging into late May 2026 and what that means for the Fed's next move. With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing 4.1% in five days to 4.66% and the 30-year bond at 5.18%, the bond market is effectively doing the Fed's tightening work for it. Lucas explains the mechanics of yield spikes and connects them to the incom...