The Lance Roberts Show Podcast

Last Monday's Yen Carry Trade blow-up resulted in a 3% market correction & volatility shock. We're still in the midst of a 5- to 10% corrective phase. The market did, by the end of the week, completely recover from the effects of that sell off. Markets are looking to be up this morning, and our advice is to use this rally to remove risk in your portfolio, especially if you weren't pleased with...

With the turmoil of the past week, now is a good time to reassess your portfolio, and rebalance the risk. What is the deal with stocks advertising on TV? Wealth transferrence & Inheritances: How common is it for children to meet with parent and financial advisor? If there's money left... How RMD's can calter inheritances; how gift-giving works. Lance's kids are 'off the payroll.' Are you plann...

Economic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance reverses. Earnings Season has delivered a mixed...

The market correction didn't start on Monday; it actually started in July at the markets' peak. Then markets began to steadily sell off until tapping the 20-DMA, and that's when markets fell sharply, as the unwinding of the Yen carry trade began to really happen. On Wednesday the market rallied right into the 100-DMA, and trapped-longs sold off with markets ending at their lows for the day. Seller...

Is the crisis over? Too soon to tell, but the Nikkei did rebound, the Yen is coming down, and the BOJ is hold steady on rates. Earnings season continues; and it's too soon to suume the market has found the bottom. Admonition to be wary of the narratives. Market rally into the 100-DMA, buyt unlikely to test resistance the 50-DMA just yet. Understanding the Yen Carry Trade; risk management vs greed....

Markets on Tuesday bounced off their lows to rally into the 100-DMA as a first test of resistance following Monday's crash. And with a lot of "trapped-longs," sellers showed up immediately. Markets sold off, but finished positive for the day. Markets today could potentially rally up to retest the 100-DMA, and move on up to the 50-DMA is also a possibility, but not as likely today. (Previous market...

Monday's Carry Trade-inspired blowout  saw lots of selling , but a little bit of recovery before the dust settled. The ISM Services Report clocked-in a little stronger than expected, taking fears of imminent Recession off the table. The Fed might not have to cut rates as much. Markets are now over sold by three standard deviations off the moving average; a bounce is in the office, but this co...

The Carry Trade blow out created a market that is now oversold by more than three standard deviations. The most logical, next move for markets will be a bounce. Keep in mind, as sharp as Monday's drop was, we're still only 8% down from the peak, meaning we're still withing a normal, corrective process at this point. If markets fall further, say to the 200-DMA, that's a move of about 10%, and we th...

August begins with weaker employment and the Fed hinting at the possiblity of a 1/2% rate cut; The Japanese Carry Trade blos up: What is it and why does it matter? Look for the largest spike in volatility since the pandemic. Be careful amid emotional headlines; Markets have already been over sold and now need to bounce. Anything that is a risk assett will be affected; bonds are over bought: Today...

What is the Carry Trade (and why does it matter)? Lance explains the mechanics of carry trades and yield spreads, and why the Japanese Yen and U.S. Dollar behaviors are causing an unwinding of that carry trade, and when margins go wrong. Reality check: The markets are fine. Markets have been spooked by some unexpected, exogenous event...like the unwinding of the carry trade. This will lead to sell...

Richard and Danny discuss the week's market moves, and how bad news is actually bad news now; Intel's poor performance should be no surprise to astute investors; sometimes "value" stocks are value traps. Understanding (and avoiding) the day-to-day media hype. How to use "Money Buckets" to balance risks and demands on retirement funds; 2024 looks to be a mirror of 2023, with weaker economics. How t...

Jerome Powell's presser was a snooze-fest, with the Fed's stance on interest rates remaining unchanged (at least they didn't hint of more rate hikes!) Markets also responded to clarifications on chip bans and performance reports from AMB & MSFT. The "AI is Dead" narrative is way too early; largest growth in data center construction is in the US. Rewards for beating earnings estimates have been...

The month of August tends to be okay for investors, but in an election year tends to be weaker, and September, seasonally-speaking, tends to be the weakest of the months. Noting the behavior of the NASDAQ of late, it appears a reflexive rally is much more likely following the recent sell-off. Portfolio managers' de-grossing of their holdings has resulted in an under-weighing of portfolios, which w...

It's Fed Day, and Lance Roberts previews potential outcomes to be announced Thursday afternoon. Earnings season continues, with MSFT reporting revenue of only 29% for the quarter vs the anticipated 30% growth. Shucks. Our take on what to take from the NASDAQ correction: Opportunity. Markets are "flirting w disaster" around the 50-DMA: what will be the Black Swan Event (and why would anyone wish fo...

There's been a nice correction in the NASDAQ. Markets can only go in one direction for so long. When you get extreme deviations from trend lines and moving averages, things will correct, and they do correct, from time to time. Trend lines and moving averages all act like gravity; when they correct, we humans have to provide some rationalization for the chaos. Currently, we're back to a very overso...

Earnings season continues with 39% of S&P reporting this week; by week's end, 79% of companies will have shared results...and the buy back window opens anew. The Fed meeting begins today, with a slim chance for a surprise rate cut; a more dovish tone will encourage markets, however, and anticipate rate cut by September. Commentary on markets' 3% correction & Japanese Yen carry trade effect...

Following the 3% correction in the S&P, markets are oversold on multiple levels. Markets are holding at the 50-DMA and will try to rally up to the 20-DMA today. If the Fed comes out with dovish commentary tomorrow, markets could rally for another couple of days. The story lately has been how small caps have been out-performing large caps, but that wasn't the case on Monday: Large caps were up,...

Markets prepare to wrap July; what will the Fed do this week? McDonald's Quarterly Report showing consumer pullback. Article tease on trying MMT and the Sam Altman experiment. Market correction last week followed by rally bounce; sell-signals are still in place, indicating the correction isn't over. Commentary on Olympic Sacrilege and electric karma; will there be a deeper correction? Lance explai...

Markets corrected last week and tested the 50-DMA, and on Friday bounced with a decent rally above that point. But, a violation of the moving average on one day means nothing. Note, however as we move into August, which is not a great month, but it's not terrible; the sell-signal is still firmly in place, so it's unlikely that the current correction is over. In fact, we could be in this correction...

Rich & Danny recap Danny's recent accident; Rich's market summary includes a preview of today's PCE release. Markets are awaiting confirmation of a trend. Dealing with the election fallout on your money; markets have already priced-in everything you know. PCE will move markets today; there is still $500-billion in unspent government funds from the Inflation Reduction Act. Dealing with data bre...

The S&P Global Services Index is "great," in contradiction to other eocnomic metrics; the first estimate of Q2 GDP is released today (up 2.8%); this will be revised. Important to note the behavior of GDP prior to past recessions, which are always back-dated. 350-days without a 2% correction, until Wednesday. Bill Dudley is calling for lower interest rates now; Lance Roberts & Michael Lebow...

We've gone about 350-days since the last 2% correction...until yesterday. Markets fell 2.3% Wednesday, breaking through the 20-DMA to test the 50-DMA. The current sell signal is putting pressure on the market. We've been saying for some time that we're due for a 5% correction; we are now in that process...whether it continues remains to be seen. Market is now sitting on the 50-DMA; if it goes up,...

Lance Roberts provides a preview of Q2 GDP results, Temp hiring is tapering, and rising credit card delinquencies (because of unemployment) suggesting economic stress. A three year experiment in Universal Basic Income is an epic failure. Google earnings beat estimates, but YouTube's $1B revenue disappoints(!); Tesla puls back 7% on earnings results. Correction is near, but not today. Danny's accid...

Google earnings beat across the board, with one exception: YouTube revenue was less than expected, even though it was up $1B year over year...creating some weakness for the stock this morning. Tesla also missed expectations, and will be down about 7% this morning. The market had broken the 20-DMA, corrected and then moved up to hold Tuesday: Markets are flirting with support. If we take out the 20...

Measures of inflation are beginning to come down: Shelter costs are expected to decline over the next six-months; jobless claims and consumer delinquencies are on the rise. Markets rally after a three-day correction, retesting the 20-DMA, and back up again, thanks to mega-caps. The current Sell-signal may limit upside. Is the bull market just getting started? Lance explains w charts & graphs....