The Lance Roberts Show Podcast

It's a holiday-shortened trading week to kick off the new month: September & October tend to be weaker trading months. Look for light volume and the impact of the corporate buy back window open and closing; markets tend to de-risk ahead of elections. Markets closed Friday at July's all-time high amid much bullish optimism. Markets today could retest 20- 50-DMA for support. despite a loss of mo...

Markets have a short trading week in which to function, and volumes will be a bit lighter. Markets closed on Friday at previous highs set in July. If markets can break out, that will allow momentum to carry markets higher. There is a lot of bullish sentiment. If markets close down today, that will keep things within a consolidation range. A break to the downside will test support at the 20- and 50...

Market Resiliency: It's always about the Fed. Nvidia and the AI story is still alive; Treasuries are overbought; Dollar General and Big Lots are struggling, surprisingly; where are the cracks in the economy? THe unwinding of the Tech sector, and how Google lets you know you're fired. The push to working longer; more and more are depending more and more on Social Security. legislation introduced to...

Looking ahead to September; why election polling is wrong; policy differences between Harris and Trump, and potential impact on markets. Nvidia earnings report rundown and stock buy back announcement. Nvidia owns 80% of market share for GPU's for data centers, with a new Blackwell chip on the way. Syppy & demand will be key to pricing. Groth expectations and market weighting; Nvidia valuation...

Markets and Investors await today's earnings report from Nvidia, which has been tagged, 'The Most Important Stock in the World.' Expectations are VERY high, so there is little room for marginal results: There is more risk of disappointment than odds of exceeding expectations. Markets continue to hang on following the mini-correction last week, followed by sharp market recovery. For now, correction...

Markets have been hanging-in for the past few days. Remember, back in June and July, we were looking at extreme deviations, and expecting a correction. We got one: About 8% over three days' time, and then markets immediately rallied. For the moment, the correction is over, and odds are we could break out to new highs (dependent on Nividia's report tonight). Volatlity is once again supressed as the...

Today's show is all over the place: Durable Goods take a big jump...unless you remove Aircraft. Astronauts stuck in space: Elon Musk to the rescue. Markets are overbought; risk remains in Carry Trade. Market correction will likely be short and shallow. What if: Nvidia's report tomorrow. Stocks are setting up for correction: Stocks on sale? Fallacies about the Dollar and where best to store currenc...

Markets were fairly over-sold three weeks ago; fast forward to today, and markets are very over-bought. This reversal has not been surprising. Our Risk Range Report reveals which sectors are most affected. Also note the extreme deviations, which are a prelude to correction. When the majority of sectors are bullish, any correction will be somewhat shallow. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist,...

Jerome Powell says interest rate policy is due for a change; market future predict four rate cuts by the end of the year. Rate cuts, the election, and dollar weakness all remain risks to the market, as well as a bit of over hang from the carry trade fiasco earlier this month. Nvidia to report this week; anything could happen. Markets again nearing all time highs, bur becoming very over bought. Gol...

 Markets are looking to push to all-time highs, and breadth has improved markedly; the ten-day rate of change has been extremely strong. We've had ten-times more stocks advancing on Friday than were declining. So market bullishness is the trend for now, with concerns and fears of a decline fading into the background. For now. The market is pricing in a zero-percent chance of a recession, but...

Joy, Gratitude, and the difficulty of knowing what narrative to believe. Still to come: Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, and reaction to negative revision to Jobs numbers. Four rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year? How to make volatility work for you. Taxation of unrealized gains: It's a dumb idea. What about credits for losses?? (You absorb the losses, the Gov't takes the gains....

Markets are again approaching all-time highs, with the NASDAQ exhibiting a most v-like recovery, up 11% in ten days. Markets' response to the largest (818-k) negative Jobs revision since 2009: Shrugs. FOMC meeting minutes indicate the time is "appropriate" for the Fed to lower rates. French women apparently have the longest life expectancy; Lance & Michael review FOMC meeting minutes and menti...

The S&P is approaching its all-time high, but there is a good bit of resistance the market is about to run into. The NASDAQ is up 11% in the past ten days as part of one of the longest, strongest run-ups since 2009. This is about as V-shaped a recovery as you can get in the markets, and there is a lot of exuberance. The bulk of the activity can be credited to stock buybacks. This is not a time...

Lance Roberts examines the cause and effect phenomenon of public policy and outcomes, rhetoric and promises; who'll control the House & Senate have more bearing on future legislation promised vs passed. Market breadth is expanding, which bodes well for bullish trends. Most of markets' lift is coming from stock buy back activity. Interesting observation about the category luanches of ETF's: Mos...

Markets recently triggered a Zweig Breadth Thrust (say that three-times, fast!) resulting in a wider breadth in the market, which is healthy. That's helping markets' return, on average. There will still be corrective action in the markets, but the effect of the Zweig Breadth Thrust is more bullish than bearish market action. We now have the highest number of stock participating in the markets that...

Previews of the DNC Convention and Jackson Hole meeting previews, plus four Fed speakers on tap this week; Monkey Pox & Covid on the upswing ahead of election season. Markets stage a phenomenal recovery over the past five days; could interest rates reverse? Kamalanomics: A historical perspective on Economic Cycles: Why Prices Controls will exacerbate inflation; the myth of price gouging; the T...

Investors are waiting for this week's Jackson Hole confab, and will respond accordingly; when will markets take a breather? The DNC begins with economic nonsense. You cannot fix poverty by giving money away. Markets' rally straight up for eight days; pullback is coming: This is no time to chase stocks. Why the correction is over; three elements of economic uncertainty. Lance answers an email about...

Markets have literally had a straight-up rally over the past eight days...a very long stretch for markets to go without taking a breather. A bit of a pullback towards the 50-DMA at this point would not be surprising. This is not the time to chase stocks. The 20-DMA is starting to flatten, and when it turns up will provide additional support on a pullback. That will be your entry point for adding e...

Great week, last week, as markets recovered from the Japanese Yen Trade Carry collapse. There is now a big gap between the S&P and the Japanese Yen, which has started to reverse a bit. We don't believe the whole issue-risk thing is quite over. Markets are behaving very similarly to markets in early 1987; coincidence? (We don't like analog comparisons of years to years, but this one is spooky!)...

July CPI clocks-on on-target for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, as it indicate inflation is trending downward. This would set-up the Fed for up to four rate cuts by the end of the year, but not so great for stocks. Watch for seasonal adjustments to Retail Sales reports. Markets will challenge 50-DMA, and could end its correction today. Your personal experience with inflation is not the same as...

Markets have enjoyed a 4.5% rally over the past five days, clearing the 100- and 20-DMA, and now right at the 50-DMA: Markets are now back on a buy signal and investors will challenge that 50-DMA today. If we can hold above the 50-DMA through Friday, this correction is over. At least, for now. One key element driving this rally: Share buy backs, and that window closes again in September. What will...

The PPI number came in weaker than expected with lower input prices. Today's CPI report (a 0.2% monthly increase = 3.2% annual rate) weakness could spur the Fed to lower rates, although to what extent remains unknown. The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Summit could also provide impetus for the Fed's action in September. Meanwhile, markets on Tuesday cleared the 100-DMA, and are looking for confirm...

After clearing the 100-DMA, the next step will be a re-testing to confirm the bottom is in. The good news is that the markets cleared the 20-DMA...but, that's below the 50-DMA, which today will be key resistance. If markets can clear the 50-DMA today, that will clear resistance for markets to rise higher from here. We would not be surprised to see markets pull back at this point and retest the 100...

It's economic report week, with previews of today's PPI, tomorrow's CPI, and Thursday's Retail sales numbers for July; will weaker consumer spending appear? Stock buybacks have returned. Markets to re-test 100-DMA, and set up to move up to the 20-DMA. Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the Jul...

Monday's markets broke above the 100-DMA and re-tested intraday. A weak test, but a positive for the markets, completely closing Monday's sell-off. This sets up the market for a move upward to the 20-DMA (which has now crossed below the 50-DMA), which will be key resistance for the markets' first attempt at a re-test. Economic date to be released this week could temper markets' mood. For now, sent...