The Lance Roberts Show Podcast

Markets last week were very deviated above the 20-DMA, and in need of correction. Well, that snuck up on us all at once with three days of a sharp sell-off taking us below that 20-DMA. Normally, such action is a signal for corrective process...unless markets can get back above the 20-DMA. Which they did. Monday's rally in the S&P was strong enough to lift above the 20-DMA, thanks to trade rota...

Lance discusses the markets' potential reaction to Biden's exit from Presidential race, and whether markets' rotation out of mega-cap stocks is sustainable; a rewind to February market conditions compared to now: A correction is expected before the election. Commentary on keeping market corrections into context; the mega-cap rotation and fewer medium- and small-cap companies from which to choose:...

Back in February/March, we noted how markets were over-extended, overbought, and stretched, anticipating a 5% - 10% correction. The correction hit in April. The first sign of that activity was a break in the 20-DMA. More recently, markets have been grinding higher along the 20-DMA, as before. The average broke on Friday for the first time since April. Markets could rally today and get right back a...

Richard Rosso opines on Houston driver, CrowdStrike IT fail, and why he's changed his tune in thinking now might be a good time for the Fed to slip in a rate cut. Does the Fed have performance anxiety? Take care in benchmarking risk; market pullbacks are like a "Thanksgiving Oven," keeping things warm to use later. Study shows Gen-X'ers more likely to delay retirement because of economic anxiety....

ey, kids--what day is it? Lance reorients himself and shares foreigners' perspectives of the U.S. Advice: Avoid the negativity and don't feed the fear. Looking at astronomical rotation from Large- to Small-cap stocks over the past five days: Russell 2000 is elevated by 4.4 standard deviations from its moving average. Markets needed a healthty rotation, and this is actually bullish in creating more...

The rotation from large-cap to small-caps continue for the largest such moves we've ever seen. The Russell 2000 is now over four standard deviations from its moving average. "Astronomical" comes to mind...and headlines are screaming, "is this the end of the great AI chase?" The reality is that we've simply had a rotation in the market, and a bit of perspective is needed here. The sell-off is barel...

ay-3 of the RNC convention: Markets are already beginning to shift in anticipation of a presumed presidency and policies, with an eye on taxation and monetary policy. Donald Trump has said he will allow Jerome Powell to finish his term as Fed Chair, with Jamnie Dimon as Treasury Secretary. Meanwhile, we're watching major moves in the Russell 2000 with rotational trades in anticipation of election...

Futures are pointing sharply downward this morning: After grinding ever higher for the past few days, it's inevitable to have a correction at some point. Not saying that's happening today, necessarily, but...markets are highly deviated and overbought. We need a pullback. S&P 5,510 is a potential test of the 20-DMA, so a day or two of correction is not outside the realm of possibility. The Russ...

Lance Roberts begins with an earnings and economic reports preview; there is now a 90% chance of the Fed cutting rates sooner than later, and odds-makers now expecte three rate cuts. Small- and Mid-cap stocks are now three standard deviations above their averages; might be time to take profits. Lance explains the correlation between Fed funds rate adjustments and bond performance, the relationship...

Small- and Mid-cap stocks have been in the news, outperforming the large caps over the past few days by a few large degree. There's a nice buy-signal on mid-caps, which are extremely overbought by three standard-deviations above the moving average. This generally doesn't last for long. Recall how we've discussed the performance of large-caps of late; mid-caps and small-caps have not had the same b...

That was the week that was: Hurricane Beryl, celebrity deaths, Trump assassination attempt, & Lance's Vacation. PPI show inflation trending downward, setting up for a Fed rate cut: July or September? Investor sentiment remains positive as markets continue to grind higher; investor eschew put-options, which are very cheap now...just like this time, last year. Bears are like a ‘broken clock,’ th...

Markets are back on a buy-signal, but still over-bought. This is something we saw this time last year,  with markets moving higher, everything just fine...but eventually, markets corrected. What happens when there are no more buyers? Sellers must liquidate at a much lower price, and markets go through a correctional phase at that point. The only question is, when? A correction IS coming, befo...

The saga of the Roberts' Rental house concludes, at the cost of a coffee maker and other electrical appliances. How much will it cost to feed your hoard on July 4th? Market Commentary: light volume expected for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week. Adam Taggart, Jon Huntsman analysis: Symptoms vs reality. The importance of doing your own due diligence and sticking to an investing discipline...

Everything is tenuous in a holiday-shortened week (markets are closed July 4th, and open only a half day on the 5th). While the S&P DID hit a new, all-time high of 5,500 on Tuesday, you can't really tell. Marginal highs are no big deal while markets remain entrenched in a consolidation range. Markets may be up a little today, but it will be on light volume because evenyone's gone for the holid...

Wrapping up the month of June, and the start of a new Quarter in July: Expect market volatility. Micron's miss will weigh on tech sector. Analysts' estimates have dropped by $5/share for Q3, lowering the bar in anticipation of next reporting season. Final Q1 GDP revision due today. Moving closer to July Fed meeting and possible rate cuts? Jobless claims are climbing. Options markets begin to bet o...

Tonight's "great debate" doesn't mean much from a market perspective. However, with three months to go before the Presidential election, options markets have begun (already!) pricing-out the outcomes. Yes, Virginia, Wall Street bets on the election...just like they bet on everything else! Markets are fairly elevated, deviated way above long-term trends. There is nothing to suggest a bigger correct...

Pre-debate, Consumer Confidence, and a rally for Nvidia: earnings preview & market commentary: How long can markets remain over-bought? Investors' common mistakes: Acting too soon, and over-reacting. Markets can remain over-bought for a long time; a function of market momentum. Consumer confidence has been trending lower; the dichotomy of consumer expectations vs market performance. Vacation T...

Markets are over-bought and can stay that way for a long time. Being over-bought is a function of momentum. A lot of market momentum will drive asset prices higher. This does NOT mean you won't see small corrections back to a support line...which tend to be buying opportunities instead of selling opportunities. Look at market behavior from November '23 thru march of this year: Markets remained ove...

Fed speakers are out this week, talking the same game. Lance examines corellation between the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and economic growth, and what posts to X (formerly known as Twitter) are to be called. Who does the Fed depend upon for data? There are many divergences in the data; Nvidia's bad day(s): Stock split and 13% drop is a correction, not a crash. Doing the math to S&P 6,...

Did the darling of Wall Street take a drubbing? Nvidia headlines were rampant following its huge run and a 10:1 stock split. Now the stock has dropped 13% in three days. Don't panic. When Nvidia was trading at $1,000/share, and small ($50k) investors wanted to make it 1% of their portfolio, they could only buy one share. (In a $50k account, that's a 2% position.) There was no "reduction" in the po...

Market volatility closed out last week, as investors prepare to wrap June and Q2 business. Triple-witching Friday added to the excitement, and markets remain extremely over bought. The Conference Board's Leading Indicator Index has been negatice for 27-mos in a row; always a precessor of Recession. Lance discusses investors' two common mistakes when markets negatively diverge (w charts). A look at...

Markets got extremely over-bought last week, and on Thursday and Friday began to burn off some of the excess. Much of the activity was due to options expirations on Friday. Technology has been driving the S&P, of late. Nvidia was everyone's concern over the weekend after a decent, 3% dell off. Markets are over-bought, and we're due for a correction, or at least some consolidation to bring the...

Markets are performing the job of the Fed; is the economy stronger? Rich & Jon look at the "Olive Garden economic indicator: Who's dining out, and who is staying in? How to unravel high restaurant prices 9and everything else, too!) Baby Boomers are still spending. Candid Coffee preview (egistration link below); Investor complacency is troubling. The Genworth settlement = 100% increase in premi...

Will markets exhibit the typical summer weakness? Prepping for the election outcomes; correction coming now and later. Preview of housing numbers and initial jobless claims; market breadth is on the decline. The increasing gap between the S&P 500 and equal-weighted indexes. Lance discusses the relative strength of the Dollar vs other currencies. Petro-dollar fears and how you're being sold by...

National housing numbers and home builders' sentiment have been dropping of late, particularly in new home sales, which have been very weak. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to continue to click up. Rising unemployment could entice the Fed to cut rates sooner. One of the dichotomies we've been watching is market breadth, with the number of stock trading above their 50-DMA declining despite the...