The Lance Roberts Show Podcast

Markets are trading in a holiday-shortened week, thanks to the Juneteenth Holiday Wednesday. 50% of companies are now in stock buy back blackout period. Retail Sales report preview; a function of Consumer sentiment. Five Fed speakers out and about today; markets started weakly, then rallied 1%. Volume and breadth are weakening; markets are very over-bought and extremely deviated from DMA's; when c...

Markets on Monday opened weakly, then rallied 1% to close ahead. Note, however, that while markets are making these advances, they're doing so on weak volume and narrow breadth, resulting in a market that is very, very over bought in terms of relative strength.  The current deviation from the longer-term mean is getting fairly extreme. Typically, with deviations of this magnitude, a correctio...

Markets have continued to grind along the 20-DMA. Nothing seems to be wrong, and markets are back to extremely over bought conditions. Upside has been limited, with small gains being made in markets that are very deviated from the 20- and 50-DMA. Corrective action is inevitable to relieve some of the over bought conditions. This has been a very narrow rally, with performance only in the top-most t...

Parsing the economic data; Bonds vs ETF's; how bond pries and interest rates move; couting on the income. Danny & Jonathan address YouTube chatroom questions on Bond Yields and Buy/Sell dynamics; Dialing for Petro Dollars: A discussion of the US Dollar's strength, and whether it will still be the world's reserve currency in the future. Four good reasons to keep the Dollar.  Transitioning...

June is half-over, and the stock buy back blackout begins today, removing that source of activity from the market. Economic data points continue to weaken, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell wants to see "more good data." There is an alternative universe of debt; the Fed wants weaker economy so they can lower rates. The S&P 500 sets another new, all-time high; Apple, Miscrosoft, & Nvidia are d...

The S&P set an all-time high following Wednesday's softer inflation report. Ironically, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia were the primary market drivers for the day. This continues to be a very lop-sided market; the deviation from the 50-DMA is getting pretty extreme again. Outside the S&P, the equal-weighted index is underperforming, and that gap is widening. 40% of the Russell 2000, for exam...

It's Fed Day and Inflation Day: The FOMC meeting commences, and inflation in May cooled a bit. What will the Fed's Dot Plot show? Rate cut expectations are down to just two for this year, and likely not occuring until after the election. How will the Fed loosen QT? Markets set another all time high, marginally. The rally-restest-rally pattern continues. Apple was the big driver on Tuesday with the...

Markets set another all-time high Tuesday, albeit marginal, despite the trumpeting headlines, and trading negatively for most of the morning. We're now seeing institutions coming in to buy during late afternoon trading, lending bullish credence to the market. Traders are tracking right along the 20-DMA, as we saw in January and February, rebuilding the same pattern of rally-retest-rally. The big d...

Markets are essentially in stasis until after tomorrow's conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Market enthusiasm is similar to that seen in 2000, but there are a few differences this time around. Will Apple AI tailor a better product for users; can AI actually deliver? Crude Oil in a MACD buy signal from very low levels: Time to buy? How Generation-Z is making blue collar jobs cool; implications of powe...

Markets are essentially on hold for the next 48-hours until we get through the FOMC meeting starting today; results will be announced tomorrow. Markets are overly sensitive to rate moves and want to know when and how much the Fed will cut. Markets could move up or down, sharply, based on the Fed's announcement tomorrow. Meanwhile, speculative bets on Crude Oil have gotten extremely negative. A lot...

Employment Report Headlines are stronger than the underlying data shows; economic activity is slowing, but markets remain upbeat. Markets have been quiet; complacency can lead to unexpected things. Markets tested 20-DMA and rallied; will re-test that level today...again. FOMC Meeting this week + CPI Inflation data could trigger a change: Markets' performance has been predicated on Fed rate cuts. H...

Futures are pointing lower this morning, which is no surprise. After a multi-weeks' long run in the markets, investors today will likely re-test the 20-DMA in a repeat performance of market activity we saw back in November thru February. The current environment could run from July through August, migrating higher without any catalyst. This week's FOMC Meeting and CPI Inflation data could turn mark...

The D stands for Donuts: It's International Donut Day; Buc-Cee's Donuts & Jerky; Can a Texas Stock Exchange survive? JR weighs in. NYC's economic suicide; the Roaring Kitty live-stream; Candid Coffee returns (6/29); AI stocks & narrative economics: Will AI not be the savior we'd hoped? How to maximize your severance package; when a layoff is a blessing in disguise. Goldfish & dietary h...

D-Day commemorations top the day; ISM report shows a big jump, but input prices and employment weakened. The data does not (yet) support thesis for Recession. Nvidia topped $3-Trillion in market capitalization, surpassing Apple for #2 slot in the S&P. Nvidia is now 3x over its 50-DAM. The coming power grid expansion will offer investing opportunities; how viable are alternative energy investme...

Big day for Nvidia on Wednesday, crossing the $3-Trillion market cap threshold to become the second-biggest company in the S&P...and surpassing Apple in market capitalization. Nvidia is now trading well beyond three standard deviations above its 50-DMA. The last time Nvidia was this extended, back in March, it spent quite a bit of time afterward declining as it worked off the overbought positi...

More weak economic data from the Atlanta Fed; semiconductors are outperforming software stocks, 3:1; look for consolidation in that sector. Domestic stocks are outperforming all other markets. A fairly big correction in Oil Prices over the past few days is now setting up an opportunity for investors to take profits and rebalance energy portfolios, which are by necessity tied to the price of their...

A fairly big correction in Oil Prices over the past few days is now setting up for an opportunity for investors to take profits and rebalance energy portfolios, which are by necessity tied to the price of their underlying commodity. OPEC's decision to allow more production to come online has pushed oil prices down. Oil prices are sitting on support that goes back to February of this year. A bounce...

Launching June market trading and looking ahead; the continuing saga of E*Trade and Roaring Kitty, GameStop. Economic data continues to weaken; expectations for Fed rate cuts this year are now back up to two. Markets' morning selloff, afternoon rally back into the green pattern continues, thanks to EOD institutional buying; all activity against the backdrop of a sell signal. Why Berkshire went to...

Markets opened weakly on Monday but rallied at the end of the day to close in the green. Markets continue to bounce along the 20-DMA, and the question will be whether the late-session buying by institutions will continue. Late day rallies are encouraging, as they're occurring against the backdrop of a sell signal, but that's also keeping markets from going anywhere. Markets continue to move sidewa...

Markets start the month with support sustained at the 20-DMA, although consumer spending is weakening, with retrenchment in Restaurants. Inventories are high while spending is slackening. The cure for inflation is high prices. Markets break thru 20-DMA on Friday, but rally before the close. Sell signal is restricting upside. The market momentum chase is on...which is fine until the music stops. No...

Markets broke through the 20-DMA early in the day on Friday, as Bad News was actually bad news. However, in the last hour of the day, a hughe buying surge lifted markets back above the 20-DMA, allowing markets to hold support, and remain within a bullish trend. Markets are still on a sell signal, suggesting upside may be limited. The current market grind may continue for another week or so, and th...

With weaker economic data trickling in, are Fed rate cuts coming sooner than later? What's the deal with 401k's? The best way to take money out of a 401k; executing an "in-service rollover;" tax implications and fund seasoning details you need to know; remember fees and expense ratios. What about Roth's: pre-tax funds & retirement; making too much money? Dealing with shifts in RMD's: The gover...

Houston is finally #1 in something: Home Foreclosures; Q1 economic data suggests conflict with narrative the economy is doing fine vs anecdotal evidence. The Fed's Beige Book summary shows not as much concern for inflation as for weakening consumer demand. Weaker stock pricing is also emerging; Can markets hold the 20-DMA? Risk assets are momentum-based trade (Bitcoin); also beginning to weaken. H...

The S&P really hasn't gone anywhere, just consolidating over the past two weeks. We think markets will crack and trigger a MACD Sell Signal, suggesting weaker pricing is on the way. The question today will be whether the market can hold the 20-DMA. Bitcoin is beginning to weaken, also ready to trigger a sell signal; Ethereum just got a big pop in anticipation of its ETF approval by the SEC. It...

It's all about the Fed, never mind the fundamentals. markets have gone essentially nowhere, driven almost entirely by Nvidia. Markets are close to a short-term sell signal. It's time to rebalance portfolios. Corporate Greed does not cause inflation: The simple truth. 401k rollowver problems; why few receiving required 402(f) notifications; the tax implications of rollovers. If you've lost a 401k,...