The Lance Roberts Show Podcast

Markets have been doing well of late, thanks in part to the excellent performance of Nvidia, the one stalwart of the AI semiconductor chase. The stock was up another 8% Tuesday as the whole AI idea continues to permeate the market. Nvidia is now larger than Tesla, IBM, and about eight other companies, all combined, with a market cap now at $2.7-Trillion. You can buy Amazon stock and still have mon...

Markets falter; Nvidia and Cracker Barrel keeping up with the times; the Fed's impact on Markets: Could rates actually go back up? How spending habits are shifting; the need for a Sell Discipline when bad news is good news. Caution against investing emotionally because of politics. What happens when you're the executor: Business decisions vs family/emotional issues. The Graceland financial fiasco:...

Markets sold off on release of the latest FOMC Meeting minutes, which are a sanitized, finely-crafted version of what went on behind closed doors. The hawkishness seems to be continuing; Deflation seems to be a bigger risk to the economy than inflation. There's too little demand, resulting in price cuts to move inventory. Insight on why we reduced our stake in Nvidia before its report was released...

Why did we trim our holdings in NVIDIA before its earnings report release? The answer lies in our Daily Market Commentary. Basically, when it becomes over bought, we trim a little, and when it pulls back, we buy some more at a lower price. We balanced out position and took our portfolio back to target weight. What we've seen this earnings season is companies coming out with stellar earnings report...

All eyes are on NVDIA's quarterly report: Why did we trim our position? How might this company disappoint investors? It's all about the guidance. FOMC Meeting Minutes also could trigger markets, based on what they reveal about the Fed's interest rate intentions. Markets are at all-time highs, trading in a tighter range. Markets have gone 315-days without a 2% correction; we think they're primed fo...

The market is sitting at all-time highs, but trading over the last five days has been in a very tight range. Price gains at this point are going to be hard to come by when markets are as overbought as they are now. Today's market movement will be triggered by either the FOMC Meeting minutes release or NVDIA's quarterly report...or both. There's a reasonable risk for a short-term correction back to...

During ripping bull markets, investors often start benchmarking, comparing their portfolio’s performance against a major index; most often, the S&P 500 index. While that activity is heavily encouraged by Wall Street and the media, funded by Wall Street, is benchmarking the right for you? Why does Wall Street want you to compare your performance to a benchmark index? Lance discusses Fed speaker...

The big debate in the SEC is whether Ethereum will be granted permisison to launch an ETF, a la Bitcoin, which would have the potential to boost Ethereum stock prices. Ethereum had a large jump on Monday in anticipation of the decision, which is about 75% probable the SEC will vote to approve. If, for some reason, the SEC does not allow the launch, the current market rally could be short-lived.&nb...

NVDIA & Fed speakers are in the spotlight this week; stock buyback are running higher than normal. The risk of recession; when will the Fed cut rates? Durable Goods are in deflation; Services are seeing higher inflation, tied to discretionary spending. Markets finish previous week at all time highs; when will they pull back? Wathcing for a bullish cross of the 20- and 50-DMA. AI can now lie an...

 Markets finished last week on a positive note after hitting all-time highs. The question will be whether or not we get a bit of a pullback: Markets are very over bought on a short-term basis, and still on a buy signal. So, for the short-term there does not seem to be a lot of downside risk. We're watching for a correction back towards the 50-DMA (which is sitting near the 20-DMA). The 20-DMA...

Houston hit with tornadic storms; everything is going up: Stocks, Bonds, Gold...The Crypto Proposition: Brokers are like lemmings. Every investment is a story: Tech & Cryptocurrency; wrapping rules around your portfolios. The danger of over-confidence. Investing perspective is important. Avoid investing based on politics; the psychology of investing. Should you get out of the market? Baseball...

Markets hit all-time highs with softer CPI: The biggest contributor was decline in Homeowners' Equivalent Rent. Markets are now anticipating two rate cuts this year. Consumers are showing signs of weakening; hardest hit are Gen-Z & Millennials. Stocks & Bonds rally on weaker CPI; markets are extremely over bought. Look for a re-test of the 50-DMA with market corrective action anticipated....

Bonds rallied, Stocks rallied, and Gold rallied all across the board, thanks to a weaker than expected CPI Print which suggested the Fed will cut rates at least two times this year. It was a risk-on day. Markets closed the day at their highs; they are extremely over bought at this point, and that would infer that some type of corrective action is in the offing. (Markets are also very deviated from...

Roaring Kitty is back with resurgence of GameStop stock; the insanity returns. Jerome Powell already knows the CPI numbers for tomorrow: What are markets expecting vs what he will say? Citi Surprise Index showing more signs of economic weakness; evidence the consumer is slowing down. Markets flopped around Monday but earned another green candle. We're expecting a pullback to test the 50-DMA; there...

Markets spent much of Monday flopping around but finishing the day with a green candle. Markets are still overbought and still on a buy signal, so we're expecting correction within a few days: Nothing major, but a healthy pullback to re-test the 50-DMA and alleviate the overbought conditions. The risk in the data is the lag-effect, which could produce a hotter-than-expected CPI print. Most of Wall...

Markets' bullish trend continues; no reason to be sitting in cash now. Economic data is proving to be a mixed bag. Consumers' creativity for accessing funds they shouldn't be touching for continued spending. Markets are back to overbought; wait for a pullback to add exposure. What's moving markets: The Fed or AI? When the Fed supplies liquidity, fundamentals take second chair. Fundamentals, howeve...

Markets' April correction has created a bounce off support at the 100-DMA, and now markets are retesting March's highs. Markets have been up for eight days straight, and on a solid buy signal, are now back up to "overbought." Markets are likely to struggle for a few days, unable to make much headway higher. The months of June and July should be fairly decent months, given that this is an Election...

Earnings preview & economic reports: The wisdom of writing a market journal. Will markets produce an 8th day of gains? Current trading strategioes; the animal spirits are shifting. Soupy Sales' 'Send a Dollar;' CEO Neutrality, getting back to the basics of business. Will Social Security last past 2035? There are some surprising, positive notes in the latest SS Trustees' report. Why we run fina...

Is the pig really out of the python? (Excess savings are gone.) Who is still spending, and how? Government spending and consumer credit card usage; buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) plans being used to buy groceries and make ends meet. There are no stats to determine credit risk presented by BNPL companies. Markets sell-off, rally, and end at break-even. The correction is over...for now. No earnings growt...

Markets sold-off, rallied, and then ending flat on Wednesday, good enough to chalk up another "green candle day." This just continues to show there are buyers entering the market. Remember, Sellers live higher, Buyers live lower. When Buyers evaporate, prices drop to the next level of pricing at which Buyers are willing to buy. How amazing it has been to see how rapidly the Volatility Index has re...

The Citi Surprise Index: When economists are disappointed in estimated numbers; that index is now at a low ebb. An uneventful earnings season is wrapping up with fair results; the only companies seeing margins grow are large caps. Markets eke out gains for 4th straight day; the benefits of a market pullback; CTA's have money to spend, plus resumption of stock buy backs. Old Shows & Actors; the...

Markets ecked out a very small gain on Tuesday, chalking up four days of positive finishes. The buy signal is now firmly in place, and markets are becoming a bit over bought; a pullback at this point, with a bit of a hold, would be helpful. And a rally forward from that level would then continue the bullish trend. There is a lot of buying on deck with the return to stock buybacks and computer trad...

Economists' 'rush-to-judgement' vs the lag effect catching up w economic data. Consumer spending and loan demand are waning as excesses in money supply are normalizing. The data re beginning to refute the "no recession" theme. Market correction is now over, bullish trend to resume. The challenge of NOT expecting recession; what the data is starting to show; not a lot of risk in credit markets...ye...

Markets rallied to close above the 50-DMA on Monday, triggering computers' buy programs, and a final push at the end of the day produced a close at the high for the session. Markets are now over bought and on a buy signal with no real, near-term concerns about a decline. Watch for a bit of sloppy trading over the next few days, and what would be great would be for markets to re-test the 50-DMA, ho...

There are three possible paths for markets, moving forward. Markets are at a critical juncture at the 50-DMA; earnings "beat-rate" has been low, and earnings misses have been severely punished. Looking at the Fed's liquidity strategies; the markets' possible direction from this point. In dealing with inflation, which data measurement matters? Him's, Her's, & Botox: The rise in Gen-Z use of cos...