The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo: Predictions, Outlooks, and What's Coming Next

Lucas and Luna dig into the Fed's dilemma in June 2026: inflation is running at 4.2% annually, the Fed Funds rate is at 3.63%, and the economy is growing at a tepid 1.6% real GDP. They explore why the central bank isn't cutting rates despite a cooling labor market and a VIX that dropped 20% in a week. The hosts use the recent ECB rate hike, the surge in wholesale prices, and the stubbornly high co...

The yield curve has un-inverted for the first time in over two years, and some investors are calling it a green light for risk assets. But Lucas and Luna dig into the data — the ten-year Treasury at 4.47%, the two-year at 3.62%, and a VIX that's fallen to 16 — and argue that this time the classic signal may be a false dawn. They walk through why a steepening curve driven by term premium rather tha...

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dissect the puzzling divergence between rising job openings and flat hiring in the June 2026 labor market. With JOLTS data showing openings jumping to 7.6 million in April while nonfarm payrolls barely budged, they explore whether employers are posting phantom jobs, struggling to find qualified workers, or signaling a structural shif...

The JOLTS report for April 2026 showed a surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million, yet hiring barely budged and quits stayed low. Lucas and Luna dig into what this 'low churn' labor market means for wage growth, the Fed's inflation fight, and workers' bargaining power. They connect the dots from the March 2026 JOLTS data to recent CPI and PPI readings, and explain why the Beveridge curve may...

This episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast dives into the recent story of a Chinese startup's unfolding dilemma and what it reveals about cracks in Beijing's tech funding machine. Lucas and Luna analyze how geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict and ECB rate hike, are reshaping capital flows into China's tech sector. They discuss the impact on venture capital, the role of governm...

This week, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, a direct response to surging energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down what this means for the global inflation picture—especially for U.S. import prices and the Federal Reserve's next move. They drill into the May CPI print of 4.2% and the surprise jump in wholesale prices, connecting...

The Fed faces a tough spot in June 2026: core inflation is running at 4.2 percent annually, but the labor market shows signs of cooling with initial jobless claims ticking up and unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the divergence between sticky services inflation and a slowing hiring engine. They explain why the Fed's preferred measure—core PCE—is stuck above target, how w...

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into the May 2026 CPI report, which showed headline inflation at 4.2 percent year-over-year, the highest in three years. But they focus on a less discussed detail: the gap between core goods and core services inflation. Lucas explains that while core goods prices have actually been falling for three months, driven by easing sup...

Lucas and Luna examine the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026—the first since 2023—amid an energy shock from the Iran conflict. They unpack how a 25-basis-point move in Frankfurt affects the U.S. Treasuries market, the dollar, and the Fed's own path. With the ten-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.46% this week and core CPI still sticky at 4.2%, the episode asks whether glo...

On this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the May wholesale inflation data that surprised everyone — producer prices up 1.1 percent in a single month, driven by energy. They connect that to consumer price data showing 4.2 percent annual inflation, the highest in three years, and ask whether the pipeline for price increases is still flowing faster than the Fed can re...

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a painful disconnect in the May 2026 CPI report. While average hourly earnings crept up to $37.50, shelter costs jumped 0.6% month-over-month — the biggest increase in over a year. They trace how rent inflation is being driven by a shortage of 2.3 million housing units, a hangover from the 2020-2021 construction slump. The hos...

Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May 2026, the highest print in three years. Lucas and Luna drill into the May CPI report released this morning, breaking down the key drivers—shelter, energy, and a surprising uptick in core services—and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the FOMC meeting next week and the ECB decision tomorrow, they discuss whether the inflation surprise changes th...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years—the longest stretch in modern history. But in recent weeks, the two-year to ten-year spread has flipped positive again. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why this so-called 'uninversion' may not be the bullish signal investors think it is. They examine the structural shift in Treasury term premiums, the role of the Fed's quantitative tighte...

Consumer confidence is slipping even as the economy adds jobs and GDP grows. Lucas and Luna dig into the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household financial worry at its highest since July 2022. They break down how rising credit card balances and auto loan delinquencies are squeezing spending, why the VIX spike suggests markets are pricing in a consumer-led slowd...

Episode 40 of The Economic Forecast Podcast digs into the growing disconnect between solid GDP growth and sinking consumer sentiment. Lucas and Luna explore New York Fed survey data showing household financial worries at their highest since July 2022, even as GDP expands. They unpack the role of persistent inflation, the labor market's conflicting signals, and the recent VIX spike of 13.5 percent...

Episode 39 of The Economic Forecast Podcast digs into a puzzle: the economy grew at 1.6% annualized in Q1 2026, the job market added 122,000 private payrolls in May, yet the New York Fed's survey shows household financial worries are at a two-year high. Lucas and Luna examine the disconnect between headline GDP and lived experience — focusing on the role of sticky core inflation at 335.4, the surg...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but something changed this week: the two-year Treasury yield dropped below the three-month bill for the first time since 2023. Lucas and Luna unpack what this partial normalization means for the Fed, for recession signals, and for your portfolio. They walk through the specific yield levels as of June 8, 2026 — the two-year at 3.62%, the ten-yea...

The Russell 2000 is down 2.5% in five days while the Dow barely budged. Lucas and Luna dig into the small-cap selloff: why the divergence with large caps is widening, how the VIX surge to 21.5 is hitting small companies hardest, and what the May jobs report on Friday could mean for this corner of the market. They break down the leverage dynamic, the rising Treasury yields, and whether this is a bu...

The NASDAQ has dropped 5.1% in the last five days while the Dow is essentially flat. Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the divergence — tech giants getting hit by tariff exposure and rising long-term bond yields, while industrial and financial stocks hold up. They look at the composition gap, the role of the ten-year Treasury at 4.54%, and what the VIX surge to 21.5 tells us about where ris...

The VIX has surged 34% in five days to 21.51, while the VVIX has only risen 11.4%. Lucas and Luna unpack what this divergence means for investors. They explore why the VIX is climbing faster than options on the VIX, a pattern that historically precedes sharp market moves. The episode drills into the Fed's holding pattern, the labor market's mixed signals, and why the yield curve steepening adds to...

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the April 2026 CPI and PCE data to understand why core inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's target despite a cooling economy. They examine a surprising divergence: headline CPI fell to 332.4, but core CPI rose to 335.4, driven by a 0.3% month-over-month increase in core services excluding housing — the so-called 'sup...

The May jobs report is out Friday, but the real story is the quiet surge in long-term unemployment. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data: job openings hit a two-year high, yet the share of unemployed out of work for 27 weeks or more is climbing. They explore why this mismatch is happening, how it affects wage growth and inflation, and what it signals about the health of the labor market. Plus,...

The May jobs report drops Friday, but beneath the headline payroll number, a troubling trend is building: long-term unemployment is surging. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data—initial jobless claims spiked to 225,000, and the number of workers jobless for 27 weeks or more is rising fast. They explore why this matters for the Fed's rate path, consumer spending, and the broader economy, and wha...

With the May jobs report due Friday, Lucas and Luna dig into a worrying trend beneath the headline numbers: long-term unemployment is surging even as overall job openings hit a two-year high. Using the latest JOLTS data and the Fed's Beige Book anecdotes, they explore why workers who have been out of work for more than six months are getting left behind — and what that means for wage growth, infla...

In Episode 30 of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising disconnect between surging job openings and stagnant wage growth. With JOLTS hitting a two-year high of 7.6 million in April while average hourly earnings barely budged, they explore how labor market churn—workers switching jobs at record rates—is reshaping inflation dynamics. Using fresh data from the Bureau of...