The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo: Predictions, Outlooks, and What's Coming Next

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the latest Core PCE data showing inflation at 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. They explore why service prices like rent, healthcare, and insurance keep climbing while goods prices fall. Using real data, they unpack the shift from goods to services inflation, what sticky services mean for the Fed's rate pat...

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, hit 3.4 percent in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down why services inflation is proving stickier than goods, how the labor market is feeding price pressures, and what this means for the Fed's rate path. They examine the divergence between headline and core measures, the role of shelter and medical costs, and why the bo...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising disconnect between moderate GDP growth and high consumer confidence in June 2026. With the S&P 500 at 7,354 and a strong labor market, consumers are feeling optimistic despite tepid economic growth. The hosts dive into the data: real GDP growth of 2.1% annualized versus booming job openings and near-record stock levels. They explore how the we...

In June 2026, initial jobless claims dropped to 215,000 while factory job cuts spiked and the unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the apparent contradiction: why layoffs in manufacturing are rising even as the broader labor market tightens. They look at the drivers — from post-Hormuz shipping disruptions to a cooling goods sector — and what the divergence means for the Fed...

The yield curve is steepening, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.37% and the 2-year at 3.66%, even as the Fed holds the funds rate near 3.63%. Lucas and Luna dig into what's driving long-term yields higher: a combination of rising term premium, sticky services inflation, and a massive Treasury supply glut. They reference the May core PCE print of 3.4%, the highest since October 2023, and discus...

Episode 74 of The Economic Forecast Podcast. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest core PCE reading—3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023—and what it means for the inflation outlook now that goods deflation is fading and services are taking over. They connect this to the ten-year breakeven inflation rate rising to 2.21, the Fed holding rates steady, and why the bond market seems to be betting t...

With the Fed's preferred core PCE gauge hitting 3.4% in May, we drill into the split between goods and services inflation. Goods prices are falling—think used cars and furniture—but services like rent, insurance, and medical care keep climbing. Lucas and Luna break down why core services inflation is sticky above 4%, what that means for the Fed's rate path, and how the Iran energy shock is feeding...

The Russell 2000 has jumped 2.4 percent over the past five days while the Nasdaq fell 2.1 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the rotation into small-cap stocks: what's driving it, how the yield curve and Fed rate cuts are fueling the shift, and why investors are betting on domestic-focused companies over mega-cap tech. They discuss the Nevada jobs boom as a microcosm of this trend, and whether the...

Lucas and Luna explore a subtle but significant shift in the inflation narrative as of June 2026. Core goods prices are flat or falling, while services inflation—especially in housing and insurance—remains stubbornly above 5%. They break down the latest CPI and PCE data, the divergence between headline and core, and what it means for the Fed's next move. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate...

In episode 70 of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the startling surge in factory job cuts, which in June 2026 reached levels not seen since the financial crisis and the pandemic. Using fresh data from S&P Global and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they explore why manufacturing employment is plummeting even as job openings elsewhere rise. The hosts discuss structural shifts—f...

Factory job cuts in June 2026 are approaching levels not seen since the financial crisis and COVID-19, according to S&P Global. Lucas and Luna dig into the data—why manufacturing is slashing headcount even as the broader job market holds steady. They explore the role of the Fed's high-rate hangover, the Iran shock, and structural shifts like reshoring that aren't yet creating offsetting jobs. Spec...

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been quietly bugging forecasters: real GDP growth climbed from 0.5% to 1.6% annualised in the first quarter of 2026, even as the consumer side of the economy looks stretched. They examine the composition of that growth — specifically whether business investment and net exports can sustain the reb...

Lucas and Luna dig into the April JOLTS report, which showed job openings surging from 6.89 million to 7.62 million while actual hiring barely budged. They explore what's driving the gap — from Nevada's booming services sector to the structural mismatch in manufacturing — and explain why the Fed's rate path may hinge on whether these openings translate into hires. Along the way, they break down th...

The Federal Reserve recently cut the fed funds rate to 3.63%, down from 3.64% in April. Lucas and Luna explore what this tiny but symbolic move means for inflation, jobs, and the broader economy. They examine how the rate change interacts with sticky core CPI at 336.1 and a cooling labor market where the unemployment rate holds at 4.3%. The hosts also discuss the implications of slower GDP growth...

On this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine one of the most surprising data points in June 2026: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped to 2.25% even as oil markets were reeling from the Hormuz blockade and Iranian tanker headlines. They unpack why bond markets aren't pricing in a lasting inflation spike, what the Fed's new chairman Kevin Warsh inherits, and how...

The ten-year Treasury yield has stalled at 4.45% despite a cooling CPI and a Fed that just cut rates. Lucas and Luna examine the disconnect: the bond market is pricing in a reacceleration of growth and inflation that the labor market and consumer spending data don't yet confirm. They drill into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, the yield curve's persistent inversion at the short end, and what...

In Episode 63 of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into why Nevada is leading the nation in job growth in 2026. With unemployment at 4.3% nationally but far lower in the Silver State, they explore the forces driving the boom: a surge in data center construction, reshored manufacturing, and a diversified service sector that goes beyond tourism. Lucas walks through the specific indus...

While the national unemployment rate holds at 4.3%, Nevada's job market is surging with a 3.1% unemployment rate and the fastest job growth in the country. Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the boom — from lithium mining to data centers and a resurgent leisure and hospitality sector — and what it means for the broader economy. They explore why the state's low unemployment hasn't triggered w...

Lucas and Luna dig into the May JOLTS report, which showed job openings jumping to 7.6 million while hiring barely budged. They explore why employers are posting more roles but not filling them — from skills mismatches to geographic concentration in states like Nevada. The hosts also tie the data to the Fed's dilemma under new chair Kevin Warsh, and discuss what a record number of openings means f...

Episode 60 of The Economic Forecast Podcast dives into the puzzling divergence between surging job openings and stagnant hiring. Lucas and Luna analyze the latest JOLTS data from April 2026, which shows openings jumping to 7.6 million while payroll growth remains sluggish. They explore structural factors like skills mismatches, geographic immobility, and employer caution in a high-interest-rate en...

On June 17, 2026, three Iranian tankers exited a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in months, sending oil markets into a cautious rally. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what actually happened: how the tankers slipped through, why shipowners are watching in 'wary disbelief,' and what this means for global inflation and the Fed's next move. With breakeven inflation...

Lucas and Luna unpack a curious divergence: the VIX has risen 4.3% in the past five days to 18.44, yet the S&P 500 is up 0.3% and the Dow has gained 1.3%. What's causing this gap? They zero in on the Iran energy premium, the Fed's new chairman Kevin Warsh, and the real message from the options market. Along the way, they explain the VIX term structure, the role of tail-risk hedging, and why a risi...

In a dramatic shift for global energy markets, three Iranian tankers have slipped through the U.S. naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in months, as shipowners watch in 'wary disbelief.' Lucas and Luna break down what this means for oil prices, inflation, and the Fed's next move—with the VIX dropping to 17.5 and wholesale energy surging 1.1% in May. They explore the fragile...

Lucas and Luna examine a puzzling disconnect in the April 2026 JOLTS data: job openings jumped to 7.6 million from 6.9 million, yet hiring barely budged. They explore why employers are posting more roles but not filling them—blaming lingering uncertainty over interest rates, a skills mismatch in sectors like manufacturing and healthcare, and rising wage expectations that freeze the hiring process....

Lucas and Luna unpack the surprising economic ripple effects of the Iran conflict on global inflation. With wholesale prices surging 1.1% in May on energy costs and the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023, they explore how geopolitical risk is embedding a new 'energy premium' into supply chains. Using the UK's 0.1% GDP contraction in April as a case study, they explain why this is diffe...