The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo: Predictions, Outlooks, and What's Coming Next

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising drop in labor force participation, which hit a 50-year low outside the pandemic era. With job creation cooling to just 57,000 new payrolls in June 2026 and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, the hosts examine what's driving discouraged workers out of the market. They track the data from JOLTS openings holding ste...

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest inflation data — specifically why core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure, has barely budged even as CPI shows modest cooling. With core PCE at 130.1 in May, up from 129.67, the annualized rate is still hovering above 2.5 percent. Lucas explains the compositional shift: services inflation, particularly shelter and m...

China's producer price index hit a near-four-year high in June 2026, even as consumer price growth weakened. Lucas and Luna unpack the divergence: how overcapacity in Chinese manufacturing is deflating goods prices globally while raising input costs for Western firms. They explore why Europe can't quit Chinese air conditioners, how the PPI-CPI gap creates a stealth tax on multinationals, and what...

Episode 101 of The Economic Forecast Podcast. Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising data point from this week: China's producer inflation just hit a near-four-year high, while its consumer prices remain stubbornly weak. They explain how this divergence is a signal for global supply chains, commodity markets, and trade rebalancing efforts. Drawing on the latest China CPI and PPI figures from June 20...

Consumer sentiment has been in the gutter for months. The University of Michigan survey hit levels usually associated with recessions. Yet Americans keep spending — retail sales are up, services inflation is sticky, and GDP growth is still positive. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect on today's episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast. They look at the data: the Conference Board's consumer con...

In Episode 99 of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the one number that explains the Federal Reserve's policy paralysis: the fed funds rate has been flat at 3.63 percent since June — despite a cooling jobs market and inflation still above target. They walk through the yield curve steepening that has fixed-income traders rethinking recession bets, the 4.57 percent ten-year yield...

The bond market is sending a signal not seen in years: the yield curve is steepening aggressively, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.53% and the 30-year at 5.04%. Lucas and Luna unpack why this matters more than a Fed rate cut or a jobs number — and why it could be the single most important economic story of mid-2026. They drill into the specific mechanics: how the long end is repricing term pr...

Episode 97 of The Economic Forecast Podcast dives into a structural shift reshaping the American economy: population decline in major metro areas and the rise of smaller, more affordable cities. Lucas breaks down new Census Bureau estimates showing New York and Los Angeles each lost over 100,000 residents in the past year, while cities like Boise, Huntsville, and Austin absorbed those workers and...

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is facing one of her toughest tests yet in July 2026. French elections have produced a hung parliament, and Lagarde is publicly considering an early exit from the ECB to enter French politics. Lucas and Luna break down what this means for European monetary policy, the euro, and global markets. They examine the precedent of central bankers transitio...

Lucas and Luna tackle a baffling contradiction in today's economy: median home prices have fallen 6% from their 2024 peak, yet the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home is higher than ever before. They break down how the combination of elevated interest rates—with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.48%—and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovering near 7.2% is squeezing would-be buyers. Lucas...

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the puzzling resilience of the services sector and why the Federal Reserve remains hesitant to cut rates despite cooling goods inflation. With core PCE at 3.4% and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate stuck at 2.23%, the hosts examine the labor market dynamics — including the surge in job openings and stagnant wages — that...

The U.S. labor market is sending mixed signals: nonfarm payrolls grew by just 57,000 in June, yet the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate dropped to a 50-year low outside the pandemic, and job openings remain elevated at 7.6 million. Lucas and Luna unpack the two-track economy—where high-skilled workers have leverage and low-skilled workers are drop...

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive deep into the shocking new data: the labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years, outside of the COVID era. With the unemployment rate at 4.2% and payrolls adding only 57,000 jobs in June, they explore the structural reasons behind workers dropping out—aging demographics, skill mismatches, and a shi...

The labor force participation rate just hit a 50-year low outside of the pandemic. But is this really workers giving up, or something deeper? Lucas and Luna dig into the July 4, 2026 data—participation at 62.2 percent, prime-age men dropping out since 2000, and disability claims surging 30 percent since 2019. They explore the structural forces: opioid-related disabilities, discouraged workers in r...

The economy is growing, unemployment is falling, and the stock market is near all-time highs—so why isn't the Fed cutting rates aggressively? In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the sticky services inflation that's keeping the Fed on hold even as goods prices go nowhere. With core PCE at 3.4%, the bond market pricing in a 4.5% terminal rate, and the labor force participation rate at a 50-year l...

The labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in five decades, excluding the pandemic. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the July 2 headline that the share of Americans working or looking for work has dropped to 62.2 percent, down from 62.5 percent a year ago. They explore three structural drivers: aging demographics, the lingering effects of long COVID on prime-age work...

The July 3 jobs report showed payrolls growth of just 57,000 and a 4.2% unemployment rate, but the bigger story is the labor force participation rate falling to its lowest in 50 years outside the pandemic. Lucas and Luna dig into who is leaving the workforce, why they're not coming back, and what this means for wage growth, productivity, and the Fed's inflation outlook. They connect the decline in...

In Episode 87 of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine a puzzling disconnect in the June 2026 data: productivity is up, but wage growth remains stubbornly flat. With average hourly earnings edging up just 9 cents year-over-year to $37.60, and core PCE inflation at 3.4 percent, real wages are actually shrinking for many workers. They dig into the Bureau of Labor Statistics' producti...

With Goldman Sachs estimating that the World Cup could boost the June jobs report by 40,000, Lucas and Luna dig into how a sporting event can move the needle on payroll data. They examine the historical precedent of temporary hiring for large events and what it means for interpreting the headline number. The hosts also connect this to the broader labor market picture, including the softer-than-exp...

The New York Fed's Services Business Activity index surged to 36.7 in June 2026, its highest level on record. Hosts Lucas and Luna break down what that number actually means—why services are booming while manufacturing stagnates, and how this divergence reshapes the inflation outlook and Fed policy. They explore the specific drivers: rebounding business travel, a surge in IT consulting, and consum...

Episode 84 of The Economic Forecast Podcast explores a surprising disconnect in the current economy: job satisfaction is at a record high even as real wage growth remains sluggish. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data, including a new survey showing 86% of workers are satisfied with their jobs, while the unemployment rate holds at 4.3% and average hourly earnings have only risen 2.3% year-over-...

In a surprising new survey, job satisfaction in the US hit its highest level in decades even as the unemployment rate sits at 4.3% and service inflation runs hot at 3.4%. Lucas and Luna dig into the data, from the Conference Board's latest reading to why workers in manufacturing and retail report the biggest gains. They explore the role of remote work flexibility, wage growth averaging 3.5% annual...

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dissect the May 2026 core PCE inflation reading of 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023. They explore how services inflation, particularly in housing and healthcare, is keeping the Fed cautious and why goods deflation isn't enough to offset rising costs. Using data on job openings, wage growth, and consumer spending, they expl...

Core PCE hit 3.4 percent in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna dissect what the Fed's preferred inflation gauge actually reveals—sticky services inflation in rents, medical care, and financial services that goods deflation can't offset. They look under the hood of the PCE components, compare it to the CPI divergence, and explain why the bond market is pricing in a slower pace...

Job openings in the U.S. jumped to 7.6 million in April, the highest in over a year. Yet wage growth remains stuck at 3.5 percent, and the Fed's preferred core PCE inflation measure hit 3.4 percent, its highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between a red-hot labor demand and tepid pay raises. They explore how the composition of openings—concentrated in low-wage sectors...