The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo: Predictions, Outlooks, and What's Coming Next

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising divergence between the strong ADP payroll number—122,000 jobs added in May—and the plunge in the Russell 2000, down 1.5% over the past five days. They explore why small-cap stocks are selling off even as the job market appears to firm up, and what this tension means for the Fed's next move. The conversation anchors on the April JOLTS surge t...

April's JOLTS report showed 7.6 million job openings—the highest in two years—yet wage growth remains muted. Lucas and Luna break down the paradox: why employers are posting more roles but not raising pay, and what it says about the labor market's structure in mid-2026. They explore the role of worker churn, sector reallocation, and the Iran war's impact on energy costs reshaping hiring patterns....

Job openings jumped to 7.6 million in April, the highest in nearly two years. Lucas and Luna break down what this JOLTS surge means for wage growth, the Fed's rate path, and whether the labor market is actually as tight as the headline suggests. They look at the ratio of job seekers per opening, the quits rate, and why this number might complicate the inflation fight. Plus, a brief reflection on h...

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) sits at 16.05, relatively calm for a market near all-time highs. But the VVIX, which measures volatility-of-volatility, is up over 2% in the past week to 91.60. Lucas and Luna dig into this divergence: what it means when the VIX is low but the VVIX is rising. They explore how this pattern historically precedes sharp selloffs, especially when combined with sticky cor...

The job market looks tight on the surface with unemployment at 4.3 percent, but Lucas and Luna dig into the churn beneath the headline: job openings are falling, workers are staying put, and wage growth is stuck at 3.5 percent. They explore how this 'low-churn, sticky-wage' dynamic is feeding into core inflation and keeping the Fed on hold. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.38 percen...

Lucas and Luna break down how the Iran war tariff is distorting core inflation readings. With the Fed's preferred PCE gauge showing 3.3% annual core inflation in April 2026, they explain why energy costs are bleeding into categories like airfare, shipping, and industrial inputs. They examine why Fed officials like Kashkari and Goolsbee are prioritizing inflation over labor market concerns, and wha...

Lucas and Luna examine how the Iran war tariff is hitting American households in the wallet, with average families paying an extra $450 on gas and energy according to CNBC. They discuss how this geopolitical shock is combining with lingering inflation psychology to create a 'double scar' effect on consumer confidence and spending patterns. The hosts break down what this means for the Fed's interes...

Lucas and Luna dig into the CNBC headline that every US household is paying an extra $450 on gas and energy because of the Iran war. They break down how that number is calculated, why energy inflation is stickier than core inflation, and what it means for consumer spending heading into summer. Along the way, they connect the 4.45% ten-year yield to the geopolitical risk premium and ask whether the...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data showing core inflation at 3.3% and the impact of the Iran conflict on energy costs, which are costing the average U.S. household an extra $450 annually. They explore why energy inflation is more persistent than expected, how it feeds into consumer sentiment despite a strong labor market, and what this means for the Fed's policy path. A breakdown of the disco...

The Fed has held rates steady at 3.64 percent since January 2026, and the bond market is starting to signal impatience. Lucas and Luna dig into why the Fed is paralyzed between sticky core inflation (3.3 percent in April per the PCE) and a softening labor market where job openings have fallen below 6.9 million for the first time since early 2021. They discuss the 'wait and see' posture of the new...

The yield curve has been steepening sharply in late May 2026, with the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields widening to nearly a percentage point. Lucas and Luna explain what's driving this move — from sticky core inflation at 3.3% to the Fed's messaging around rate cuts — and what it means for bond investors, mortgage rates, and the stock market. They break down the key data points,...

Lucas and Luna examine a growing divide in the U.S. economy: while real GDP growth ticked up to 1.6% in Q1 2026 and the S&P 500 sits at 7,564, the housing market is sending a different signal. Home prices remain elevated, but rent inflation is stuck near 4% year-over-year, and mortgage rates above 6.5% are squeezing both buyers and renters. The hosts drill into the April CPI shelter component, whi...

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle from the May 28 data: core PCE hit 3.3% annualized in April, but consumer surveys and anecdotes suggest inflation feels far more painful. Lucas points to the gap between the official 'basket of goods' and what households actually spend—especially services like auto insurance, which is up over 20% year over year. Luna brings in the latest Fed commentary from Goolsbe...

Episode 16 of The Economic Forecast Podcast drills into one of the most surprising moves in markets this week: the yield curve is steepening, and fast. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics behind the ten-year yield falling to 4.48 percent while expectation-sensitive parts of the curve hold firm. They connect the steepening to the Fed's cautious stance, the jump in consumer sentiment data, and w...

Home prices are cooling across the US, but rent inflation remains stubbornly high. Lucas and Luna unpack why the two markets have decoupled, using May 2026 CPI data showing shelter costs up 5.2% year-over-year despite a 3% drop in median home prices. They trace the lag effect in official inflation baskets, the role of multifamily construction booms in Sun Belt cities, and what this means for the F...

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the growing divergence between inflation expectations and bond yields in late May 2026. Despite consumer sentiment hitting a record low and the ten-year breakeven inflation rate sitting at 2.40 percent, the ten-year Treasury yield has actually fallen to 4.49 percent over the past week. Lucas explains the mechanics behind this...

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine the striking divergence between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 in late May 2026. With the Russell up 6.1% over the past week against the S&P 500's 2.2% gain, small caps are surging while large caps lag. They dig into the drivers: a flattening yield curve, stabilizing inflation expectations, and the market's bet on a more ac...

The US economy just put up a 2 percent annualized real GDP growth number, but consumer sentiment hit a fresh record low in May 2026. Lucas and Luna unpick the disconnect: how can output be expanding while households feel worse than they did during the pandemic? They walk through the two key forces at play — wage growth that's running hot in blue-collar sectors versus persistent inflation in servic...

Lucas and Luna break down the Federal Reserve's latest dilemma: core PCE holding at 2.8 percent while a new wave of tariffs from the Iran conflict pushes import prices higher. With the effective fed funds rate at 3.64 percent and the ten-year breakeven inflation rate rising to 2.40 percent, the hosts explain why the Fed can't cut rates without reigniting inflation, but can't hold tight without ris...

Consumer sentiment hit an all-time low in May 2026, even as the unemployment rate sits at 4.3% and the economy keeps adding jobs. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: it's not about today's prices, but about what people expect tomorrow. With the 10-year breakeven inflation rate creeping up to 2.40% and gas prices rising amid the Iran conflict, households are bracing for a second wave of inflation...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, the longest stretch in history, and yet the economy keeps growing. Lucas and Luna drill into why this classic recession signal may be broken by the post-pandemic bond market structure, the Fed's interest on reserve balances rate, and the flood of Treasury issuance. They walk through the mechanics of what an inverted curve actually measures, why...

Consumer sentiment in the US hit a record low in May 2026, even as GDP growth sits at 2% and unemployment remains at 4.3%. Lucas and Luna unpack this paradox on The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo. They explore why the disconnect between economic data and consumer mood is so extreme right now, driven by inflation persistence, geopolitical shocks like the Iran war, and a uniquely pessimistic...

The S&P 500 is up just 1% over the past week, but the Russell 2000 has jumped 3.4%. Lucas and Luna dig into what's driving small-cap outperformance in late May 2026 — from falling bond yields to the AI economy's shift toward domestic manufacturing. They examine why the Russell's 2,869 level may signal a rotation that investors are overlooking, and whether this rally has legs. With the VIX dropping...

With consumer sentiment at a record low and the Fed under new leadership, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising counter-narrative: blue-collar workers may be the biggest beneficiaries of the AI economy. They discuss how automation is reshaping job roles, why skilled trades are seeing wage growth, and what the latest jobs data reveals about the future of work. Anchored by recent headlines suggesting...

Consumer sentiment hit a record low in May 2026, even as stocks rally and unemployment stays low. Lucas and Luna explore why Americans feel so gloomy, diving into the war in Iran, rising gas prices, and the disconnect between macro data and lived experience. They break down the latest Michigan survey, the role of inflation expectations, and what it means for spending and the Fed. #ConsumerSentimen...