The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3tpEJXU All attention this weekend immediately moved Saturday morning to the unspeakable attacks on Israel by Hamas, the declaration of war to protect themselves by Israel, and speculation as to what the ramification would be. I assure you ample commentary is provided on those subjects in this edition of The DC Today, An important thing to note today: the stock ma...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LS40QV On August 1 of this year the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 35,630. As of press time this morning, just a tad over two months later, it is trading just below 33,000. This is a -7.5% drop in about nine weeks, which we will discuss more in today’s Dividend Cafe. If -7.5% in nine weeks doesn’t seem like that big of a deal, it’s because it isn’t. Howev...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3F8Luji More or less, there is one market movement right now, even if it has three parts. Bond yields and the dollar are in the same direction; stocks are in the opposite direction. Those three in those respective relationships are all part of one story, not three different stories. In a nutshell, I remain convinced that the story has become one of quantitative ti...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46j9PPy Following another down day yesterday, we got a little reprieve in markets, with both stocks and bonds posting gains on the day. The biggest economic news on the day was the miss in ADP Payroll numbers, which starkly contrasted with yesterday's big upside surprise in the jobs openings report. More openings but fewer private payrolls could either mean there...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3RJ28h3 Markets were hit hard again today, and I do imagine we are getting closer to some short-term capitulation, but you never know. The way the regional banks have been acting lately is noteworthy. This bond rally has not let up and is basically 100% of the current market story. Why have oil prices gone up so much even as gas prices have not really gone up (and...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3F3CrAp Ask David “A couple weeks ago in your ‘What to Look for in an Advisor‘ Dividend Cafe, you pointed out that most advisors outsource portfolio management and asset allocation, and you expressed your disagreement with that trend. I agree with you, but I was wondering if you could unpack the specific reasons for why you disagree with outsourcing the investment...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4598Q3a I hope (and assume) that long-time and regular readers of Dividend Café know that I am a sucker for history.  I think this is true of all history, going back thousands of years, covering many eras, geographies, nations, people, and events, but it is especially true of American history.  20th-century American history is not very old, but wow, is there ever...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/468UHnU This morning, we had a slew of economic data that moved markets modestly to the upside in stocks and bonds in a fairly positive trading day throughout the session. Q2 GDP revision was largely unchanged, jobless claims were better than expected, and Core PCE revision was also unchanged. Yields moved lower across the curve following the releases, which put s...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3rtSIve The market opened up a bit and got up nearly -150 points before dropping nearly -300 points (an intra-day swing of over -400 points) before rallying back a few hundred points and closing down just -68 points. Who knows what the next two trading days hold but right now the only asset class on my screen up on the month is the DOLLAR. Bonds, Gold, Europe, Eme...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/45cmDG2 Markets were hit again today (five out of six days to the downside) as the Biden administration announced a major antitrust lawsuit against Amazon, and general market jitters continued (despite a flat day in bond yields). Why is the U.S. dollar up so much when things are supposed to be so bad in the U.S.? A good place to start might be the fact that yields...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48qpYnM Status of the shutdown – Speaker McCarthy is trying to split enough of the far “right” (I hate that term applied here) to avoid a shutdown. He’s currently attempting to package several appropriations bills together and send them to the House for a vote. The votes appear to be questionable as to whether or not they will be there, and this does not avoid a s...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3EPBStR Actually, the inspiration for this week’s Dividend Cafe is not “why markets were down this week or this month” – but rather something more substantial and thematic. There are some “whys” that are more important than “whats” right now and big picture, I felt certain macroeconomic themes we are watching were worth a whole Dividend Cafe. That verbiage makes i...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48s8IyG The violence was most felt in the bond market as yields rallied dramatically at the long end of the curve. As yields did not move much (or at all) in the short end of the curve, you saw a fair amount of inversion eroded. It is all a rate story now – as stocks are following bonds, not vice versa. QT is tightening, and high rates are tightening (with the bon...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44YX2Am The Fed basically was explicit in tying their “we need to stay restrictive” posture to the resilient economy (which, unfortunately to them, has been “expanding at a solid pace”). The market was up +200 points before the announcement and press conference, it dropped -100, rallied back +100, then dropped -150 (so still up over +50 points) before closing down...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LvZG9P Oil hit a ten-month high this morning. Bonds continue selling off as yields continue rallying. Japanese ownership of Treasuries increased by $7 billion on the month, while Chinese holdings decreased by $13 billion. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44YIrFd Nothing like the Monday DCT with a great deal of stuff for you today about housing, policy, the economy, markets, and more! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3r79obX Thursday afternoon I received an inquiry through the “questions” portal whereby a reader asked “how one is supposed to go about selecting a financial advisor” – attaching to the question the appropriate sub-questions around trust, qualifications, needs, and services. I know I have addressed this topic over the years but I think it has been at least five ye...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3EGfov8 The European Central Bank (ECB) raised their rate to 4%, and bond yields FELL (go figure) – mostly because markets price in today what they believe about the future. Job hirings have slowed, but job firings have too. We live in interesting times. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44MsGRn Today was a heavily anticipated news day for markets, with August CPI coming largely in line with expectations at .6% on headline inflation for the month and 3.7% year-over-year. As we had expected, higher energy prices moved that headline number, with gasoline specifically up 10.5%, which accounted for almost half of the total move higher in CPI. The Fed...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PExy76 Mexico has the strongest currency in the world this year. Its stock market is on fire (near the best in the world this year), It has overtaken China as the biggest supplier of goods to the United States (did you know that?). Direct investment from foreign countries into Mexico is up +40% in 2023 alone. Do you see why I refer to “near-shoring” as much as “o...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4680dH4 The first thing I will say before delving into this September 11 edition of DC Today as I sit here in New York City is that I honor those who were killed that day, and I will never, ever forget the atrocity that it was. I have written about this day in a very special Dividend Cafe before (I encourage you to re-read it), but regardless, whether it has been...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PxghfG Today, I would like to use the last five years to make some broader points about the realities of investing. Evergreen realities are, well, permanent. Yet we find within the last five years some serious bold-faced reiteration of these realities to which I refer (and as you will soon see, there actually is a particular single reality most on my radar this w...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/466evrH Markets acted a little more 2022-ish today, with defensives all up and Technology way down. Reports of a Chinese iPhone ban from government departments took a toll, and the U.S. dollar may be headed to its eighth consecutive weekly increase (longest streak since 2005 if it holds). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenG...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LcqThy Oil is the story of markets yet again, with Brent now passing $90 and WTI Crude passing $87. The idea that oil was between $65 and $75 for months and we did nothing to help re-fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is just surreal to me. These prices at now 10-month highs are sure to exacerbate the delta between core and headline inflation in the months ahea...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3r2cE8d This is the kind of DC Today I love love love writing – where I really get to absorb a lot of material and bring pen to paper (or finger to keys) in all categories. I always loved this format the most, and being able to do this long-form version once a week is a true joy for me. Doing it every single day as I did for quite some time (though today’s is full...