The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46gNK3n With over 90% of companies now having reported Q3 earnings, we stand at a 6.3% growth rate and well above Octobers estimate of just 1.6%. Just as I mentioned on CNBC World Monday night, profit growth is exceeding revenue growth as companies with pricing power that raised prices the past year due to inflation are showing margin expansion as some of those in...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47wGQI7 Markets rallied huge today as bonds rallied in the aftermath of the CPI report. Interest rates went into total free fall (the 10-year is down a stunning -18 basis points, and the entire 2/10 curve is down 18-21bps in what may be the biggest bond rally of the year and possibly several years) as the CPI number came in at, wait for it, +0% month-over-month (h...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47aKXKm There are some financial writers who I believe are professional doomsdayers. There are some who are more nuanced. And, yes, there are others who I think are hard to pin down. I suppose it is most fair to treat all people individually, with unique circumstances and particulars around their approach and worldview. For example, I think some are SINCERE but al...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3u3NcAi Sir John Templeton could have never known what staying power his famous edict would have when he wrote in 1933, “The investor who says, ‘This time is different,’ when in fact it’s virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing.” He wasn’t wrong, and the vast majority of the time that famo...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40yBPwn We started off todays session in another quiet day, until about 1PM ET when we had an abysmal 30-year treasury auction on $24B of notes that moved rates higher across the curve that gave us our first down day in November for the SP500. With an increased supply in new issuance to fund a $2T budget deficit and a dearth of large buyers like our own Federal Re...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3My1KhW Futures were as quiet as could be last night, and markets followed suit in a benign trading range that came off the lows mid day to close slightly higher and extend our November rally at least on the SP500. To be fair, we did come into November with only 17% of the SP500 having a positive three month return so were set up well for a rally and while the mar...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46Z4Xj5 This is the longest winning streak (number of up days) for the S&P 500 in two years. One of the least encouraging things? The delta between cap-weighted and equal-weighted results … Top-heavy doesn’t end well. But nevertheless, markets are enjoying a very strong rally over the last week and a half. Oil was hit hard today (down over -4%). Some traders t...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3SuN9Yy Nothing like the Monday edition of DC Today. I’ll get right into it. Dividend Cafe dealt with the subject of long term interest rates and what it all means for the economy and investors. I think it was a useful way to think about what the long term is supposed to measure, and what current Fed actions mean for that process. Links mentioned in this episode:...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3tWWLRz It has been a volatile month in markets, to say the least. October represented the third consecutive negative month in all three market indices, coming off of a modest downturn in August and September, as well. October did it in more roller-coaster fashion, starting off the month with a 600-point drop in the first few days of the month, only to see that re...

Today's Post - Big rally day, with markets posting a very nice fourth day of gains, closing up 564 points and putting us now up almost 5% on the week. While I would love to say it’s off to the races, under the hood, the relative underperformance of the higher beta components of the market just feels less convincing. Another bond market rally day as well, with 10’s coming down another nine bps to n...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3tYWGgn So the market closed the month of October down -1.35% in the Dow, down -2.2% in the S&P, and -3.4% in the Nasdaq. Let’s just say those numbers got a lot better the last two days, though. And then today was noteworthy as well … Fed Day is the best day, and today the Fed kept rates where they were, as expected. The market was up +100 when Powell began ta...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QErw6L With half of the companies having reported quarterly results, we now see +4.3% earnings growth year-over-year and +1.4% revenue growth. Of course, half is only half. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49hz1aU Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - I closed out our annual “money manager due diligence week” last week with a luncheon put on by the Economic Club of New York with Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell. He surprised me by saying some things that I was not expecting, and he also said a lot that I could have predicted verbatim (okay, I did predict verbatim) before the speech. But despite all my earnest desire that the...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/45RiZ4B Yesterday’s little market move was pretty weak sauce (not even 2-to-1 advancers to decliners and not even 1% in any index). Yields soared back today, putting downward pressure on the S&P and Nasdaq in a 2022 kind of day. Yesterday, I recorded DC Today in the studio in our Newport Beach offices, had already submitted the final written edition, and then...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3tLGlvi Markets today rallied a bit (though they closed off their highs) as Treasury yields calmed down and leveled out. Earnings season is not even 20% complete yet, so all projections are quite premature, but thus far, revenue growth is coming in +0.9% year-over-year with earnings growth of +1.2%. There will be more meaty data to chew on in the next week and the...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QqYcRa So the market came into today just 300 points above its intra-day low of Friday the 6th at the beginning of this month, having rallied about a thousand points off of that in the six days that followed, but then selling off three days in a row to end last week. Bill Ackman announced this morning that he had covered his short on U.S. Treasuries (another way...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46P3YBs Greetings from New York City, where I will be leaving very early Friday morning to head back to California for a week and where I have been in meetings all week with our major money manager partners across every asset class in which we live. I had thought about doing today’s Dividend Cafe as a sort of recap of the week, but I am going to need the plane fli...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q1Ot2c This is Trevor Cummings playing backup quarterback for one more day. As mentioned, David will be back with you tomorrow with his weekly Dividend Cafe. Today is quite a busy one for David, as he will be attending both the Economic Club of New York for Jerome Powell’s speech and then closes out the evening at the National Review Gala. With that said, we’ve g...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48YpBB6 This is Trevor Cummings filling in for David Bahnsen. David is in the midst of day three of his annual TBG Money Manager Due Diligence trip. As mentioned, he will be back with you for the weekly Dividend Cafe on Friday. Markets were a bit more active today than yesterday. We also had a rebound in housing starts, another L for Jordan’s ballot push, and Bide...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46UIS4q Today David Bahnsen is on day two of the annual TBG Money Manager Due Diligence trip in New York. This is an exciting time of the year as our investment committee dives deep into all the portfolio particulars and then surfaces with a plethora of content to share with our clients as well as some actionable portfolio items. I believe this is year 18 of this...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ZSi3fd I am writing this week’s Dividend Cafe from my apartment in New York City, very early on Friday morning, hours before I will leave for an all-day symposium I have attended every year since 2009 (besides the COVID-cancelled years, of course). I mention this only because my philosophy of dealing with markets in the aftermath of exogenous shocks and particula...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3FkhgKh The headline and Core CPI figures today were largely in line with expectations as the market opened. However, we witnessed a reversal of early morning gains throughout the session, resulting in both stocks and bonds closing lower. Interestingly, Fed futures remained relatively unchanged after the release of these numbers, hovering at approximately two-thir...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LYNG0J Treasury yields dropped again, and stocks rose again today. The minutes from the Fed meeting last month came out today and said nothing new or unsurprising at all. ExxonMobil agreed to buy Pioneer Resources for $59.5 billion in an all-stock deal that represents the largest oil and gas deal in over two decades. I am not sure that an Israeli ground invasion...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3S0qSBs Markets today moved higher as bond yields came lower. One can argue that bond yields are dropping in response to comments from Fed governors yesterday (see below) but the more prominent factor is likely a slight flight-to-risk out of the war situation in Gaza. What it has done, though, is exacerbate the stock-bond correlation whereby they were both droppin...