The Dismal Science

It's another bumper quizmas episode. We score Mark on last year's forecasts and gaze into the crystal ball to see what's ahead in 2024. Thank you to all of our listeners. Have a great break! We'll be back in January with more epsiodes.

The RBA will now speak with multiple voices with all board members expected to speak to the public. Will this lead to greater transparency or muddy the waters further? Plus, more bumper jobs growth, the MYEFO reveals another jump in tax receipts, Milei takes his razor to Argentine spending and another COP climate conference goes by.

"Australia's economy hit the wall in the September quarter," according to Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan. Disposable incomes have declined steeply and consumer spending is weak. Have the rate cuts done their job now? Could the next move be down rather than up? Plus, Venezualan revanchism and Guyana's oil and gas boom.

Self-described anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei has won the Argentine presidential election. Do desperate times call for desperate measures as Argentina looks to escape hyperinflation? Plus, the RBA board worries about its credibility and the OpenAI board worries about the future of humanity. Ivan's had another audio fail this week. Apologies. We know you come for Mark anyway.

The third quarter saw wages rise at a record rate in Australia and despite a slight increase in headline unemployment, the labour market is still tight. What's a central bank to do? Plus, are we seeing a soft landing in the US? Apologies for the audio on this one, a few technical issues.

With another rate rise last week and no easing in sight, Australia seems to have joined the higher for longer world. Are 'higher for longer' interest rates actually a sign of optimism about future growth? Or has excessive government debt globally pushed up rates? Plus, director sentiment falls again and a China growth surprise.

The signs are pointing to another rate rise next week, the first on Michele Bullock's watch, as inflation proves more stubborn than expected. Plus, strong retail sales figures and the IMF says it's time for governments around the world to tighten their belts.

With wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the world has become a more dangerous place. How should boards be thinking through the fracturing global order and geopolitical risk? Plus, the RBA sounds a hawkish note and a mixed jobs report.

We look at the wide-ranging work of Caludia Goldin, this year's recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics specifically "for having advanced our understanding of women's labour market outcomes". Plus, we catch up on Michele Bullock's first meeting as RBA governor and what the waning of Pax Americana might mean for the global economy.

A mixed bag this week: the government's jobs white paper, another inflation spike, wilting retail sales and a glut in red wine.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has promised to proceed carefully with any future changes to interest rats in the US. Does this mean we're now in a "higher for longer" world? Plus, oil market dynamics and NZ emerges from recession or does it?

Colourful property developer Tim Gurner caused an outcry calling for the unemployment rate to rise, saying "we need to see pain in the economy". How different is his message from the RBA's official line? Plus, the latest confidence numbers, a farewell speech from Lowe, a getting to know you speech from the incoming productivity commissioner, and the obesity wonder drug Ozempic and Danish GDP.

Governor Lowe's last RBA meeting and rates are on hold. Is the next move of the new era down? Plus, Australia enters a 'per capita recession' and the global solar boom.

Central bankers turned philosophical at last week's annual Jackson Hole conference as they contemplated the mistakes they have made over the last two years. Plus, the incoming Reserve Bank governor talks climate change, inflation continues to come down and the stifling effect of high interest rates on innovation.

Australia's growth will slow and its population age over the next forty years, putting pressure on the budget and more generally our standard of living, according to the government's latest Intergenerational Report. What can we do to jolt Australia out of this growth and productivity malaise? Plus, BRICS talk dedollarisation, Argentina talks dollarisation, and the case for bringing back the proper...

China this week suspended its youth unemployment data, having registered a record high in June. It's one of a raft of economic series that China has pulled in recent years. How troubling a sign is this for the Chinese economy? Plus, unemployment in Australia ticks up, wages growth remains relatively subdued, Russia's crashing rouble, and Mark's mixed World Cup allegiances.

China's economy is experiencing a bout of deflation. Consumer demand is weak, the population is growing older and the property sector is undergoing a painful deleveraging. Is the Chinese economy about to stagnate like Japan in the 90s? Plus, the latest confidence numbers for Australia and CBA posts a record profit on the back of rising interest rates.

The RBA has kept interest rates on hold for the second meeting in a row. Are we now, finally, done with rate rises? Plus, the US government credit downgrade and industrial policy makes a comeback.

Inflation in Australia is coming down. Have we won the war? Should Governor Lowe feel stiff? Or will rates need to stay 'higher for longer' as services inflation continues to blaze? Plus, the IMF sounds cautiously optimistic on global growth and Mark gives us his reflections on the UK economy after his holiday.

The white smoke is billowing from Martin Place, we have a new RBA governor. So who is Michele Bullock? And what will Philip Lowe's legacy be? Mark is still on leave so Bennett joins Ivan to answer these questions. To hear more of Bennett, listen to our new podcast, Boardroom Conversations , where he talks to some of Australia's leading directors aicd.com.au/news-media/boardroom-conversations

The US Fed 'skips' hiking this month but hints there's still more to come. Plus, the Australian labour market continues to boom even as confidence slides. The Dismal Science will now also be pausing for a few weeks as Mark is on holidays. Back soon.

Another rate rise brings the total tightening to 400bps in just over a year. Add in the disappointing first quarter GDP growth and this week seemed like a tipping point for the Australian economy. Are things about to get worse before they get better? Plus, the regulators come for crypto.

A US debt ceiling deal, a stubborn inflation number for Australia, the Chinese recovery slows and Ivan moves house.

With Narendra Modi's visit to Australia, we ask if economic diplomacy actually works. Plus, the debt ceiling draws closer and the AI boom gathers steam.

With the passing of Robert Lucas, the champion of rational expectations theory and one of the most influential economists of the last 50 years, we ask whether his legacy holds up. Plus, with unemployment edging up, consumer confidence down and wages continuing to disappoint, we look ahead to the RBA's June meeting.