The Dismal Science

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has delivered the first budget surplus in 15 years, helped by the boom in jobs and commodity prices. The government has used the windfall to deliver a cost of living package targeted at the most vulnerable, but will the spending stoke inflation and prove counterproductive? Plus, the US is again facing a debt ceiling crisis and we say vale to the great Allan Gyngell AO.

A surprise rate rise and a surprise host on the 150th episode of the pod.

Inflation eased off in the first quarter of the year and we appear to be past the peak. So will the RBA continue to leave rates on hold next week? Plus, more on the tight rental market.

The review of the RBA is in. We look at what's changing, what's not changing and the critique of the bank's performance.

The boom in jobs continues in Australia and consumer confidence is bouncing back, but does this mean another rate rise is on the horizon? Plus, US inflation, Sydney NIMBYs and the IMF's gloomy forecasts for the global economy. A rapid fire episode as Mark and Ivan both battle colds.

The RBA pauses and house prices are on the march again. Will it be enough and where will it end?

The markets are expecting the RBA to pause the rate hikes next week with the global financial turmoil and inflation seemingly having peaked. Is Philip Lowe finally going to ease up on the beleaguered Australian mortgage holder? Plus, Deutsche Bank credit default swap shenanigans and we ask if the AI productivity revolution is already here.

In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, and they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and yet their second largest bank has still collapsed. What went wrong? It's a story of fraud, spying, kickbacks, Bulgarian drug-dealers and all-round Suisse poor risk management. Plus, the Fed keeps hiking through the turmoil, do bailouts sow the seeds of the next crisis, and JPMorgan is left holding a bag of...

We answer five big questions in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse: What happened at Silicon Valley Bank? Did the authorities get the response right? What even is a bank for? Is the Fed to blame? Could this happen in Australia?

We talk to directors about their outlook for the economy and the challenges they're facing, we catch up on this week's RBA and Fed news, and we ask if Australia is investing enough in AI.

Once again, we're live from the Australian Governance Summit. We talk RBA, of course, whether the world is stabilising again after years of crisis and the risks of artifical general intelligence.

As criticism of the RBA governor Philip Lowe mounts, we ask how high will interest rates go, what could he have done differently and is the Reserve Bank's independence in jeopardy?

For our first episode of the year, we look ahead at the five big questions for 2023: Will the RBA keep hiking rates? Will there be a recession in the US? Will the Chinese economy recover now that the zero covid policy has been abandoned? Will the war in Ukraine continue to disrupt the global economy? Is crypto done?  

It's another bumper quizmas episode. We score Mark on last year's quiz and look ahead to 2023. Plus, are gas price caps a good idea? Has inflation in the US peaked? And another great jobs report in Australia. Thank you to all of our listeners. Have a great break! We'll be back in January with more episodes.

A new AI chatbot called ChatGPT has us asking if the robot productivity revolution is nigh. Plus, a final rate rise for the year, another healthy GDP number and Australia's current account once again slips into deficit.

Inflation is showing signs of waning. Have we put the genie back in the bottle? Plus, a non-apology apology from the RBA and with protesters on the streets, is the Chinese grand bargain on stability and growth at an end?

Another climate conference, another cop out? We look at the progress, or lack thereof, at COP-27, including an agreement to establish a 'loss and damage' fund for poor nations. Plus, should central banks buy bitcoin? And the cost of the World Cup.

As criticism builds, the RBA has reviewed its forward guidance given during the pandemic. Has it permanently undermined its credibility? And how will it communicate to the public in future? Plus, the Australian economy keeps adding jobs, wages might finally be moving and a Korean credit crunch.

DSGE models, which power central banks' interest rate decisions, are under fire. Can we trust them? Plus, the fall of crypto wunderkind Sam Bankman-Fried crashes the market and everyone is nervous about the Australian economic outlook.

With energy prices continuing to soar, the government is exploring its options to keep the lid on. Should Australia be sending less gas offshore, reserving some for the local market? Plus, the RBA and Fed continue to hike rates and what car washing tells us about the UK's economic stagnation.

The inflation rate has surged to a 32-year high, but how will the RBA respond at their upcoming meeting? Plus: the key points from this week's budget, the delayed release of China's GDP numbers and what do mozzarella pizza toppings tell us about India's GST system?

The federal budget is out next week. What should we expect the Treasurer to announce on Tuesday night? Plus: fresh employment numbers, insights from the Director Sentiment Index and China's delayed GDP data.  

The IMF has released its latest forecast for the world economy, and the outlook is pretty grim. What does slowing global growth mean for Australia? Plus, fresh consumer confidence numbers, this year's Nobel Prize winners, and what does the Census tell us about Australian's working habits?

The RBA has raised rates, but it was a smaller hike than many were expecting. What could the Reserve Bank be planning for next month? Plus: the debate around "Stage Three" tax cuts, a surprise policy U-turn in the UK, and more uncertainty for China's beleaguered property sector. 

Central banks across the globe have been lifting interest rates over the last week. The RBA is almost certain to do the same at its upcoming meeting, but how high will the rate rise be? Plus: major moves for stocks and bonds, recession fears in the US and the British pound sinks to a record low.