The Dismal Science

We welcome back AICD Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, fresh from his holiday, as we dive into the market turbulence that peaked while Mark was celebrating his dad's 80th birthday in Saltburn. We explore the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hold steady on rates, as anticipated, and examine the global interest rate landscape, including hints of US rate cuts following the Fed Chair's speech at...

It's our 200th episode and Ivan's last ever :( Mark turns the tables on him and asks what's changed in economics since we started the podcast and what he's learned along the way. Plus, an experiment in UBI and what we can expect from Trumponomics and Kamalanomics. A big thank you to all of our listeners for getting us this far. 

Mark Thirlwell is once again joined by Raphael Dixon to discuss the new consumer confidence survey, revealing falling confidence, as well as expectations of an interest rate rise jump.  Topic two discusses the unlikely "marriage of convenience" between some renting millenials and some debt free baby boomers, both hoping for rate hikes. And finally, birth rates: how do governments use fiscal policy...

Mark regales us with the vibe on the ground in Canberra. Plus, an around the grounds on: • RBA Minutes • Core logic house and rent price data • Retail sales numbers • Job ads And the number of the week this week asks: if climate change results in supply shocks become increasingly regular to the point of predictability, should food inflation still be excluded from core inflation numbers?

Monthly inflation numbers have come in hot, adding pressure on the RBA to lift rates. What does the upcoming French election tell us about Britain, bonds and post-covid fiscal policy? And does the much hyped Guzman Y Gomez IPO and subsequent share price pop suggest that burritos are recession proof? 

Trade with China continues to flourish despite strategic and political tension. Does Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to Australia mean we can continue to, as the Chinese saying goes, pull strongly against the raging tide? Plus, hawkish sounds from the RBA as the path grows ever narrower and the effect of WFH on real wages.

An end to the era of globalisation has led to developing countries once again falling behind. As the costs of fragmentation become apparent, should a small open economy be doing more to bring back global trade? Plus, continuing resilience in the jobs market, continuing weakness in overall growth, and higher for longer rates in the US.

Global shipping is gummed up again with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, renewed pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden, and drought affecting the Panama canal. But could it get even worse? Plus, inflation picks up again in Australia and retail sales remain stagnant.

New Zealand economist Roger Dennis advises boards globally on long-term thinking and foresight. We spoke to him on how directors should think about the seemingly endless proliferation of risks, what he calls the paradox of preparedness, and whether Kiwis, living on the edge of the world, have a unique perspective on risk. For more of Roger's thinking, visit his website .

The treasurer had a juggling act to perform in this budget: fiscal repair, cost-of-living relief, inflation reduction and productivity growth were all balls to keep in the air. How did he do? Plus, the job market weakens and wage growth falls.

The yen has plunged to a 34 year low requiring the Bank of Japan to spend billions to prop it up. Why are hedge funds attacking the yen? Plus, we preview the budget, higher for longer interest rates in the US and a weak retail sales number.

A Cook's tour of the global economy: we take in the European malaise, the Trump spectre over the US, the China shock 2.0, and a resurgence in migration.

Inflation remains stubborn in Australia, running hotter in the March quarter than economists expected. Is there now a chance that the next rate move might be up again rather than down? Plus, a slight softening in the jobs market and just how much does negative gearing impact property prices?

Industrial policy is making a comeback globally and Australia wants in on the action. Boosting supply chain resilience, accelerating the net zero transition, and mitigating geostrategic risk are touted as key benefits. But does it stack up economically? Plus, new stricter merger rules and more mixed confidence results.    

A review into the supermarket code of conduct landed this week, raising fresh questions about competition. Can we raise prices for suppliers, while also lowering prices for consumers? Would increasing competition lead to more innovation? Or has the supermarket experience improved despite the lack of competition? Plus, strong US jobs numbers and an infleciton point in the AICD's Director Sentiment...

Questioning the official labour market data used to be the preserve of conspiracy theorists, but the surveys across the globe have been plagued by problems recently. Can we continue to trust these key economic indicators? Plus, dovish noises from the Reserve Bank on interest rates, as inflation continues to ease, though house prices march on.

Live at last week's Australian Governance Summit, we asked what could be done about Australia's languishing productivity: can policy make a difference? Will AI save us? Could it be as simple as building more houses? Plus, a first rate cut might be nearing and an extraordinary plunge in the jobless rate. Regular listeners will notice some snazzy new cover art this week. Thanks to our fantastic desi...

Australia's GDP per capital continues to go backwards as growth slows to snail's pace. Plus, we look ahead to next week's RBA meeting, Powell hints interest rate cuts might be imminent in the US and more Swiftonomics.

Inflation is falling but so is growth, is the path to a soft landing for Australia narrowing still? Plus, a deal for what it's worth at the WTO and the UK economy as Willy Wonka experience.

The World Trade Organisation met last week. Not that you'd know it. Is the dream of global trade done? Plus, with real wages finally growing, could the RBA really raise rates again?

An uptick in US inflation shows the path back down might not be smooth, plus back home the labour market cools, hyperinflation in Argentina, and is Bitcoin back?

After the new look RBA meeting, the governor now holds a media conference where she addressed the future path of interest rates, as well as Taylor Swift's effect on inflation. Plus, China acts to backstop its sagging equity markets.

Inflation is moderating in Australia and the IMF says the global economy is on "the final descent toward a soft landing". 2024 might be looking up. Plus, what to expect from next week's new look RBA meeting.

We look at the government's changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts. How will this affect the distribution and will they be inflationary? Plus, business confidence plunges and the IMF warns against cutting rates any time soon.

Happy New Year listeners! Big ep to get us rolling: Consumer confidence sliding, signs of slackening in the jobs market and weaker inflation point to the RBA holding in February, Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez, more weak numbers from China, Mark's apocalyptic beach reading, and the housing market marches on.