The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

2024 is a year of elections, and in recent weeks there have been some deep shifts in the politics of emerging market economies. In this episode, Brian Daingerfield is joined by Eimear Daly, Alvaro Vivanco and Aditya Sharma to discuss the FX impacts of elections in India, South Africa and Mexico. This episode was recorded on 6 June 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary . Please view...

This week Eimear Daly and guest Alvaro Vivanco discuss the fortunes of emerging market currencies. They look ahead to the election in South Africa, and how this may affect the rand, plus they discuss the situation in Europe, including the Hungarian forint. Remember to hit 'subscribe' or 'follow' so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Currency Exchange as soon as th...

In this US dollar special, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Kevin Cummins to discuss the latest data affecting the dollar. Recent inflation news was softer than had been feared by some, but were other economic prints a step in the right direction? And how many more signs of a soft landing might the Fed need  in order to cut rates?  Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or li...

Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the longer-term prospects for GBP following the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates on hold this week. They also delve into our latest views on FX heading into a critical US inflation print. Finally, they share their views on the outlook for SEK in light of the Riksbank's decision to cut rates, and consider the relationship between US rates and...

Join host Brian Daingerfield and guest Paul Robson as they focus on the fortunes of major currencies. For sterling the dominant market factor appears to be yield ahead of likely rate cuts, while the Fed's base case is for cuts later in the year – amid some talk even of hikes. They also discuss Norway and Sweden, and give a quick update on Japan.     Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so...

After a week of historical lows for the yen, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield speculate on whether the Bank of Japan has recently intervened to defend the currency. FX markets seem to think so, but what other signals are markets reading?   Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Currency Exchange as soon as they’re available.  This episode was...

Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the impact of rising Israel/Iran tensions on FX markets, touching on potential for further escalation, the prospect of reduced oil supplies, and drivers of oil supply and demand outside of geopolitics.     Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Currency Exchange as soon as they’re available.   NB: This...

This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to pick over recent developments in bond markets. Much of the focus this week was on developments in the US, where higher than expected inflation is thwarting the Fed’s scope to cute rate this summer (we’ve revised our forecasts). Quite what this means for policies in Europe and the UK is uncertain, but divergence is the wa...

This week host Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss emerging markets (EM) and developments in eastern Europe. In EM, much of FX hinges on developments at the Fed with the US dollar. They discuss how China is setting the tone in balancing inflation with economic growth, and examine the idiosyncrasies of Polish policies.     Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or l...

This week's host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Paul Robson to focus on G10 currencies. In the UK, sterling weakened slightly thanks to dovish tones from the Bank of England while in the US, a bumpy road back to 2% inflation means market uncertainty over the dollar. Elsewhere, the Swiss National Bank became the first G10 central bank to cut rates, and may have to handle imported inflation an...

In our latest episode, Brian Daingerfield is joined by Chief US Economist Kevin Cummins to discuss this week’s US inflation readings and their implications on the Fed and the dollar. They go in depth on the Fed’s “dot plot” release and think the market is priced for a hawkish adjustment - but it’s a close call if the medians move up or stay put. They also touch on the Bank of Japan decision next w...

This week, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss how an improved outlook for US inflation after next week’s Consumer Price Index print argues for tactical short dollar exposure. They lay out why the euro failed to sustain losses on a dovish central bank forecast revision and argue the yen may strengthen on pre-Bank of Japan short covering. They also consider the lack of sterling reaction to t...

This week Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield to discuss what effect - if any - recent personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data has had on the fortunes of the US dollar. Looking ahead to an information heavy five days next week, they also discuss how the political situation ahead of the presidential election may affect the dollar later in the year.     Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘fo...

This week Brian Daingerfield is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to focus on the US, Mexico and Canada. A lack of data from the US has meant a quieter week for the dollar, but ahead of core personal consumption deflator data, can the market expect more positive signs for the US economy? In Mexico, the prospect of early bank rate cuts suggests the peso may no longer be the star of emerging market currencie...

Inflation, labour markets, economic growth – how should FX markets balance it all? This week, Brian Daingerfield, Paul Robson, and Eimear Daly take stock after a bumper data week in the US and the UK and discuss the impact on the outlook for the US dollar and sterling.   Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Currency Exchange as soon as they’re...

This week, Brian Daingerfield and Eimear Daly focus on FX in Eastern Europe, and discuss how varied central bank approaches affect currencies in different ways. In Hungary, political confrontation with the EU over aid to Ukraine eventually dissipated, but other risks raise problems about the forint. In Poland, a new government face challenges in unwinding eight years of nationalist, populist rule,...

In this week’s episode, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield discuss how the Bank of England and Fed each pushed back against market easing expectations, to differing degrees. They comment on why the outlook for sterling may still be to the topside and why the Fed leaned dovish, despite Powell saying a March cut is not likely. Elsewhere, they talk about how recent inflation data in Europe keep the e...

In this week’s episode, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield discuss major central bank decisions over the prior and coming week. They opine on the European Central Bank's dovish press conference and discuss why the UK’s Bank of England may take a more hawkish tone. They aren’t expecting the Fed to make material changes next week, meaning all eyes are on the data after another upside surprise i...

Join host Brian Daingerfield and guest Galvin Chia as they examine the politics, policy and fundamentals of some of Asia's major economies. They discuss how the result of the Taiwan election does and does not change the backdrop for cross-strait tensions, underwhelming economic data in China and potential reactive stimulus, and how a strong backdrop for Indian growth and asset performance tra...

Join Eimear Daly and Paul Robson as they discuss world FX prospects in a year that's sure to be dominated by news from the US. With the latest US inflation figures ever-so-slightly stronger than expected, little has changed for Fed policy. Meanwhile at the European Central Bank, the doves are growing in number, as inflation data has weakened the hawks' position. Does a likely early cut i...

Join Brian Daingerfield and Alvaro Vivanco as they discuss FX market moves in recent weeks. In the US, December's sell-offs of the dollar have partially reversed in January, leaving them wondering if seasonal and liquidity factors led the USD to weaken too far too fast heading into the end of 2023. And in emerging markets (EM), they discuss why December was a somewhat disappointing one for EM...

Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss developments in emerging markets (EM) FX and assess what has changed since we published our Year Ahead 2024 report. Much is at stake as US yields have compressed, but EM central banks continue to cut policy rates. They discuss what we are hearing from clients, including questions on elections next year.    Remember to hit ‘follow’ so you can liste...

Eimear Daly is joined by guests Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to discuss some of the recent developments in FX markets. Front of mind are the fortunes of the dollar after weaker than expected US economic data. But diverging monetary policy outlooks in Europe also demand attention as central banks try to conquer Table Mountain. Remember to hit ‘follow’ so you can listen to the latest episode i...

With economic growth likely to slow and inflation likely to ease, global interest rate hiking is set to give way to cutting in 2024. But the speed and scope of that transition is set to differ across economies, creating challenges and opportunities in FX. Brian Daingerfield, Paul Robson, and Alvaro Vivanco discuss the outlook for G10 and emerging markets FX and break down some of the key themes af...

In the second episode dedicated to the US dollar, host Eimear Daly is again joined by Brian Daingerfield to examine recent events at the Fed and other influences over the currency. What should we make of the dollar's weakening and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks? Elsewhere, they discuss the Japanese yen and how its value is being affected by recent policy announcements.   Rem...