The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

In this episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the Bank of England's monetary policy stance, recent UK economic data, US tariff risks, and the broader political landscape in Europe.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're ava...

In a week when the Monetary Policy Committee's arch hawk Catherine Mann turned most dovish, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson find themselves with much to analyse. Aside from the Bank of England's decision to cut rates, they also cover Trumpian tariffs, the US dollar and the Japanese yen.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they&a...

In this episode, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the recent Federal Reserve meeting, its implications for the currency markets, and the potential impact of tariff threats under the Trump administration. They also explore the political risks in emerging markets, particularly focusing on the upcoming presidential election in Poland and its potential effects on the Polish złoty.     Rememb...

Donald Trump made a running start to his second presidency by signing a record-breaking number of executive orders. This week Brian Daingerfield and Eimear Daly debrief on what Trumponomics 2.0 means for the dollar and emerging market currencies.     Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big theme...

Will markets applaud Donald Trump’s second act as president? The Fed has been handed some welcome news on both inflation and labour - accompanied by some dollar highs and hopes for rate cuts. As Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss, however, markets remain skittish about Trump’s potential trade policies. So what next for the currency?   Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the late...

This week Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson and Ian Vanderhorn to cover discordant sounds emanating from FX markets. They start with Sterling’s grapple with stagflation fears, moving on to the strength of the dollar against emerging market currencies and CAD performance following political upset in Canada. None of which is a reason to do Dry January.  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen...

This week host Tokunbo Lawal is joined by Ian Vanderhorn and Kevin Cummins to discuss the fortunes of the both the US and Canadian dollars. In the US, recent data suggests that the currency may have to contend with a Fed cutting rate that is slower than had been anticipated. While in Canada, the central bank's stance is that because interest rates are still in restrictive policy, there is som...

This week Eimear Daly is joined by Giovanni Zanni to dissect the French political crisis, following Prime Minister Michel Barnier's departure. They ask what has happened, and why, plus what next for the country and Europe more widely – and how markets have bought the rumour, and sold the fact.  Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Currenc...

In this special edition of The Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Paul Robson for a closer look at sterling and the US dollar as we head into 2025. Where 2024 was characterised by political change, markets will examine the follow-on in 2025 – what higher fiscal commitments may do to inflation targets, bank rates and, ultimately, the relative performance of currencies. In the U...

This week it’s a podcast crossover, as Imogen Bachra and Brian Daingerfield deliver a Bondcast-meets-Currency Exchange special. High on the agenda is what the magnitude of Donald Trump’s election victory means for currencies and policy rate decisions, both in the near and long-term, as the US faces tax cuts and importers look set for tariffs. Away from the polls, both the Fed and the Bank of Engla...

This week Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss what uncertainty in both the UK and US means for FX, ahead of some key dates. Looking to the UK Budget, it appears as though borrowing needs will require accommodative monetary policy, potentially affecting Sterling. The US presidential election also looms and can developments in betting markets be trusted?  Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follo...

This week Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss moves in emerging market currencies. They ask how the macro environment is affecting matters, analyse why some currencies have underperformed and find that many market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach. They also look at how the outcome of the US elections may affect Poland, especially in relation to the war in Ukraine. ...

With less than 25 days to go until the US presidential elections, Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield to discuss how the outcome may affect the fortunes of the dollar, as well as the US economy. Given the continuity of Democratic policy courtesy of the incumbent, it looks like markets are pricing in, and pricing out, a Trump victory. But does this extend to potential Republican control of...

Amid the concerning escalation of attacks and reprisals in the Middle East, Paul Robson is joined by special guest and International Advisor Scott Livingstone to talk about geopolitics in the region and beyond. They discuss the speed at which tensions are rising, the escalation with Iran and how markets may be affected. Beyond the Middle East, they discuss how the US presidential race may affect i...

This week markets on both sides of the Atlantic were subject to diverging decisions towards monetary policy. Join Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson as they analyse the Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points in the US, and the Bank of England's decision to keep things unchanged for the UK. In the longer run, might this difference lead to some relative strength for sterling? Remem...

...such is Paul Robson's assessment of the UK economy and the prospects for sterling. This week he and Brian Daingerfield also discuss rate cutting developments with the euro and latest news in the US presidential election race.  NB: This was recorded on 12 September 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please...

Returning from the August break, the Currency Exchange team ask how the US election race is affecting markets. This week Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield to discuss the early days of Kamala Harris’ bid for White House glory, and whether she can continue the political momentum in three swing states. They also examine (lament, even) the prospects for US jobs data, the extent to which a Tr...

The Bank of England cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points this week while the Fed opted for a hold, so what does all of this mean for the outlook for GBP and USD in the months ahead? Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson take a closer look, and they also discuss the impact of the Bank of Japan’s decision to go in the other direction and hike rates for just the second time in 17 years. We’ll be taking a br...

…so just another week in FX markets. Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race added more drama to the US political narrative, but what does the handover to Kamala Harris mean for markets? This week Brian Daingerfield is joined by Paul Robson to discuss currency markets in the US and the UK, where uncertainty shrouds the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates next week.  This ep...

This week, Alvaro Vivanco and Eimear Daly dig deeper into some of the big drivers for FX in the Americas with a particular focus on Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and Peru. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Currency Exchange as soon as they’re available.  NB: This was recorded on 18 July 2024.  For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  h...

This week Brian Daingerfield is joined by Kevin Cummins to talk about recent, encouraging data on US inflation. But one print can’t rule them all: the Fed needs to weigh unemployment and services inflation data too, among other signals, when deciding whether, when and by how much to cut. Despite the Fed being in full data dependence mode, the room to interpret information differently means there’s...

In a period of potential (ok, likely) political change in the UK and France, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson ask how currency markets account for risks around election time. Whereas a Labour victory appears priced into the level of sterling, can the same be said of France's effects on the euro? In the US, of course, all eyes are on the upcoming Presidential election, and what sentiment ove...

This week Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss currencies in emerging markets. They cover developments across Latin America, and share their views on what’s driving valuations of the South African rand.   Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. This episode was recorded on 27 June 2024.  For an...

This week Brian Daingerfield is joined by special guest Joann Spadigam to talk about the political movements in Europe, and the prospects for President Macron in the upcoming elections. They cover how the uncertainty is affecting financial markets and what a win for the extreme left or right may mean in the longer term. This episode was recorded on 20 June '24.  For any terms used please refe...

After a week of further election announcements, an element of political risk has returned to FX markets. In this episode, Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to discuss how the backdrop is affecting the fortunes of major currencies, amid encouraging inflation news in the US.   This episode was recorded on 13 June '24.   For any terms used please refer to our glossary ....