The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

Markets may look calm, but beneath the surface FX risks are building. In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson unpack sterling’s surprising resilience, the political and fiscal risks waiting in the autumn, why the dollar’s rally may be running out of fresh fuel, and what Japan’s tolerance of yen weakness could signal for global markets.  They discuss: Why sterli...

This week on Currency Exchange, the team discusses the market implications of the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the outlook for the US dollar following a hawkish shift in Fed expectations, the Bank of Japan’s widely anticipated rate hike, and growing concerns about potential Japanese FX intervention. Key takeaways * The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh was interpreted a...

In this week’s episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Dangerfield is joined by Paul Robson, to discuss the major themes driving foreign exchange markets. The conversation covers the ECB’s latest decision, upcoming meetings from the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, and the implications for the euro, pound, dollar and yen.   Key topics:   * FX markets remain remarkably calm despite an inten...

This week on Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield step back from the day-to-day market headlines to focus on what global FX clients are thinking about the US dollar, geopolitical risk and the broader macro outlook. Against a backdrop of rapidly shifting developments in the Middle East, the discussion explores why conviction across FX markets remains unusually low, how investors ar...

This week on The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Aditya Sharma explore the geopolitical and macroeconomic developments shaping global FX markets. The discussion focuses on Chinese diplomacy following President Xi Jinping’s meetings with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the implications for China-US relations, and the broader impact of energy market disruptions on Asian currencies. The episode a...

In this episode, Eimear Daly, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield discuss the political and macroeconomic themes currently shaping FX markets, including: * Rising UK political uncertainty and implications for sterling * Why markets may be underestimating UK fiscal risks * Japan’s FX intervention strategy and US reaction * Structural challenges facing the Japanese yen * Key takeaways from the Trump–...

This week Eimear Daly and Paul Robson explore the reasons behind sterling’s strength against uncertainty both politically in the UK and geopolitically in the Middle East. They also discuss Chinese-US relations ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, and the value of the yuan ahead of Donald Trump’s visit there.  Key takeaways: - UK political risk may matter more to sterling later in 2026 than immediately. -...

This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore the FX implications of central bank rate holds in the US, the euro area and the UK. They also discuss Japan, where it appears as though policymaker intervention is boosting the value of the yen as oil prices hit new highs. But can such a move work in the long run?  This episode was recorded on 30 April 2026. For any terms used...

This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore further market developments amid geopolitical tensions around Iran, including central bank policies and wider macroeconomic developments. Key topics covered: 1. Impact of Iran-US tensions on FX markets 2. Central bank reaction functions and monetary policy outlooks 3. US dollar and yen outlook, alongside market expectations fo...

FX markets are caught between relief and reality. This week on The Currency Exchange, Paul Robson, Brian Daingerfield, and Eimear Daly unpack how a fragile Middle East ceasefire is reshaping the dollar narrative – unwinding war-driven gains, but leaving behind stubbornly higher energy prices and hawkish rate expectations.  With positioning reset and the dollar stuck mid-range, the team debates wha...

This week, Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss sources of heightened market uncertainty and puzzle over the calm that has beset currency volatility. Key topics covered: 1. Market reactions to the Middle East conflict 2. The US dollar and market positioning 3. Sterling’s surprising resilience 4. The Yen and fiscal considerations 5. Lasting themes for currency markets  This...

This week, Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist) is joined by Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to talk about the ongoing situation in the Middle East. They explore how threats to energy infrastructure might affect central bank policies, even if interest rates are still on hold in major economies. They also delve into what the crisis means for emerging markets.  This...

This week Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist) is joined by G10 FX Strategy Co-Heads Brian Dangerfield and Paul Robson to talk about currency moves during ongoing military action in Iran. Key topics include:  - Energy prices and oil market volatility - Central bank reaction functions and monetary policy - Emerging markets' response to geopolitical risks - Sterling’s performance and...

This week’s combined episode of Currency Exchange and Bondcast focuses on the ongoing Middle East conflict and its impacts on currency and rates markets. This episode features edited highlights from a client webinar hosted on Tuesday, featuring host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) and guests Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) and Paul Robson (Co-Head of G10FX Strategy...

In this crossover episode of Bondcast and its sister show Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to explore the recent Supreme Court decision on US tariffs, its implications for FX and rates market dynamics, and the future of tariff policy.  This episode was recorded on 25 February 2026. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this seri...

In this episode, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss market sentiment for major currencies. Firstly, they dissect UK economic data and the implications for sterling, plus the Bank of England policy and receding political risk. They also cover Fed policy, wider geopolitical influences on FX markets, the price of oil and implications for Japanese yen.  This episode was recorded on 19 February...

In this episode, Eimear Daly and emerging market specialist Aditya Sharma discuss the recent India-US trade deal and its implications for Indian assets and the rupee. They also delve into the upcoming Hungarian elections, analyzing the potential outcomes and their impact on markets.  You can also find this episode of The Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  This episode was recorded o...

This week, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield dig into the major themes affecting currency markets.  They begin by examining the Bank of England’s ‘dovish hold’ on 5 February – and the drivers behind a recent uptick in volatility in UK assets more generally of late. Then they turn to the US, where they discuss the recent nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell when his leadership term a...

This week Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield to discuss some major themes affecting currency markets. They begin by examining how the US dollar has responded to geopolitical developments and provide an update on the Federal Reserve. They also discuss volatility as it relates to Japan’s currency, and stability as it relates to sterling and recent UK data. Finally, they touc...

In this episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield and guest Paul Robson delve into the current state of foreign exchange markets. They discuss the recent strength of the pound against the euro, the implications of upcoming UK economic data, and the overall low volatility in FX markets despite significant geopolitical events. They also focus on the Federal Reserve's influence on th...

In this episode of the Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson return to discuss the state of foreign exchange markets as we enter 2026. They analyse the recent performance of the British pound, the euro's stability, and the implications of geopolitical events on the dollar. The conversation also touches on New Year's resolutions for FX watchers, Paul's intake of Stilt...

In this lookahead to 2026, host Tim Phillips is joined by Eimear Daly, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield to discuss key themes shaping the year ahead.  They start with the dollar, where 2026 is expected to be dominated by the Fed’s interest rate policy. Should we expect a policy error if rates are kept low under new Fed leadership and continued fiscal expansion? And what, crucially, does this mea...

On the back of the Fed’s widely-predicted decision to cut rates this week, Eimear Daly speaks to Brian Daingerfield about changes to the monetary guidance, and how this feeds indecision about a further cut in December. Elsewhere they talk about Japan’s currency, and the structural versus cyclical nature of monetary policy in Canada. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode...

In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on UK inflation data, the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook, the upcoming UK budget, and the performance of sterling. They also touch on the European Central Bank's position, the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions, the Bank of Japan...

In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current dynamics in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the UK budget, European currency outlook, US trade tensions, the impact of the government shutdown, and Japanese politics. Phew! They also explore how fiscal and monetary policies are influencing currency movements globally.  Remember to hit subscribe so yo...