The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

In this episode, host Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield to discuss the fortunes of the US dollar. With solid GDP, consumption and purchase managers' data relative to much of the rest of the world, the strong dollar looks set to remain supported. They preview the Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC) decision, upcoming economic data, and also Treasury’s refunding announcement. Elsewh...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Galvin Chia take a closer look at China's economic outlook. They reflect on the shifting role of monetary and fiscal policy in cushioning the economy and soothing markets, and discuss the potential impact on FX going forward.  Remember to hit ‘follow’ so you can watch our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and...

In this episode, Brian Daingerfield is joined by Eimear Daly and Alvaro Vivanco to discuss what clients have been telling them in the past week. They focus on currency rates in emerging markets and analyse the market implications of the conflict in Israel.      Remember to hit follow so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Currency Exchange as soon as they’re available.  NB: This was r...

A 2% drop in the value of the Japanese yen against the US dollar on Tuesday suggests the Bank of Japan may have intervened when it recovered. In this episode, Brian Daingerfield joins Eimear Daly to discuss the outlook for yen, looking at its fundamentals, assessing the effectiveness of intervention and commenting on whether this may be affected by higher US Treasury yields.  Remember to hit ‘subs...

Emerging markets (EMs) have been underperforming in recent months - a big shift from the EM rally around the turn of the year. Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss the impact of central bank rate cuts, falling carry and whether inflation can still move lower. However, the short-term outlook may not detract from some positive long-term sentiments.  Remember to hit 'follow' s...

As expected this week the Fed held rates, as did the Bank of England. Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson and Deepika Dayal to discuss the impact on foreign exchange markets of divergent central bank strategies. The US dollar is holding its strength courtesy of a hawkish hold, but the same can't be said for Sterling. In contrast, emerging markets central banks are cutting rates, triggering E...

This week the European Central Bank implemented a dovish hike. Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson to discuss how foreign exchange markets are looking forward to the start of easing cycles by major central banks. They also look at how this affects currencies in developing countries and whether Nordic central banks are near their rate peaks.  Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to...

After a break of three weeks, The Currency Exchange returns. Host Brian Dangerfield is joined by Paul Robson to discuss weaknesses in the euro economic area and China, plus the relative strength of US data. Elsewhere, support provided to Sterling may suffer longer-term challenges in the UK. A quiet August? No chance.   Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Deepika Dayal debrief after the Fed’s latest rate hike and discuss some of the key factors influencing how the central bank thinks about future hikes as we move towards the September meeting. What does all of this mean for the US dollar outlook? Tune in to find out.  Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest e...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson take a closer look at the impact of the latest inflation data on the outlook for Sterling and the wider FX landscape. Remember to hit ‘follow’ so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. NB: This was recorded on 20 July 2023.  For any...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss some of the latest jobs and inflation data out of the US and take a closer look at the impact on the US dollar outlook in the months ahead. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. ...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the latest data prints in the US and take a closer look at some of the factors driving the US dollar outlook in the months ahead. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find.  NB: This w...

In the latest episode The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Alvaro Vivanco discuss the enduring strength of emerging markets, and the exception to this trend - South Africa. They take a closer look at the fundamental economic strengths in these countries, and the effects on FX carry. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ so you can watch our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’...

In the latest episode The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson discuss the impact of a larger-than-expected UK Bank Rate hike on the Sterling outlook going forward. They take a closer look at how companies and investors should balance higher absolute yields and risks to the economic growth outlook. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as the...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Chief US Economist Kevin Cummins talk through why they expect the Fed to pause rate hikes in June and discuss potential implications for the USD outlook. They also share their perspectives on inflation ahead of next week's critical CPI print. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as so...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Galvin Chia take a closer look at some of the key drivers behind the CNY’s recent weakness. They also discuss the economic and policy outlook and potential implications for FX markets from here. Galvin also notes how a strengthening outlook for the INR acts as a counterpoint to weakening CNY. Remember to hit 'follow'...

In the latest episodes of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Alvaro Vivanco take a closer look at the turn in the USD and discuss its impact on emerging market FX outlook.  Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find.  NB: This was recorded on 25 May 2023. For any terms us...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield dig into the latest US debt ceiling drama, the potential paths towards resolution, and key implications for the US dollar – both near and long term. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. ...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson debrief after a Bank of England rate hike that arrived largely as expected. They take a closer look at what the Bank’s guidance might mean for the path of interest rates and FX markets from here.  Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ b...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson delve into some of the key drivers for Sterling performance as we head into the Bank of England meeting next week, and take stock of how this month’s Fed and European Central Bank influence our views on the USD and EUR. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available...

n the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield take stock ahead of key central bank meetings in the US and Europe next week and discuss the key factors driving the outlook for the euro and US dollar. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to fin...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Alvaro Vivanco take a closer look at how fiscal sustainability could drive currency moves globally and discuss the potential implications of a surprise monetary policy announcement from Hungary’s central bank. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ so you can watch our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so i...

In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Alvaro Vivanco discuss the impact of this week’s US inflation print on the US dollar outlook and potential implications for the emerging market FX landscape. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for other...

In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the US dollar outlook as concerns over banking sector strains recede, and take a closer look at monetary policy divergence in the Antipodes.  Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find.  NB:...

In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Alvaro Vivanco take a closer look at how emerging market (EM) FX fared amidst banking sector volatility and discuss the path forward for EM monetary policymakers as they look to address looming market and inflation risks. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘...