The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

Lucas and Luna examine why the 30-year Treasury yield has stalled just below 5% despite persistent inflation fears. They explore the role of pension funds and insurance companies as natural buyers, the impact of Fed rate expectations, and what a flattening long-end curve signals about the economy. With the 30-year at 4.97% and the 10-year at 4.48%, they debate whether this ceiling holds or breaks....

Episode 55 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo dives into the hidden liquidity crisis gripping Treasury markets as of June 2026. Lucas and Luna anchor the discussion on the 5-year note yield at 4.19%, with the 10-year at 4.47% and the 30-year near 4.97%. They explore how regulatory changes, specifically the CFTC's recent approval of perpetual futures ('perps'), are reshaping dealer balance she...

Episode 54 of The Bond Market Podcast. Lucas and Luna explore a seeming paradox: as inflation fears cool in June 2026, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are seeing strong demand. The hosts explain the mechanics of TIPS, including their principal adjustment and break-even inflation rates. They reference current data—the 10-year yield at 4.47%, the TIPS ETF (TIP) up 0.3% in a week, and...

Lucas and Luna dive into a quiet but telling signal from the corporate bond market: investment-grade spreads have tightened to levels that historically precede an economic deceleration. Using live data from June 2026 — with the 10-year Treasury at 4.45 percent and the 30-year near 4.95 percent — they unpack why high-grade bonds are behaving like a safety trade, and why high-yield spreads haven't f...

Lucas and Luna dig into why the 30-year Treasury yield keeps bumping against 5 percent without breaking decisively higher. With the long bond yield at 4.97 percent as of this week, they explore what's holding it back—and whether that ceiling matters for mortgage rates, pension funds, and the broader economy. Lucas points to a specific factor: the Fed's rate pause and the market's shifting expectat...

With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent and the 10-year yield slipping to 4.45 percent, bond market volatility has hit its lowest level in months. Lucas and Luna explore what a rate pause signals for Treasury yields, the 2-10 spread, and corporate bond ETFs like LQD and HYG. They break down why low volatility might not last, and how traders are positioning for the next Fed move. Plus, a...

Episode 50 of The Bond Market Podcast explores the hidden engine of fixed-income markets: liquidity. Lucas and Luna break down why liquidity matters more than yield in today's environment, using the recent 30-year auction and the gap between on-the-run and off-the-run Treasuries as real-world examples. They explain how the 10-year yield's drop from 4.55 to 4.45 percent is partly a liquidity story,...

In episode 49 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a counterintuitive trend in the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities market. As of mid-June 2026, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.1 percent, down from 2.4 percent in April. Yet inflows into TIPS ETFs like TIP have surged, with over $2 billion added in the past month. Lucas explains how falling breakevens actua...

On this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why the 5-year Treasury note—yielding 4.20 percent as of June 12, 2026—has become the most reliable signal for where rates are heading. They explain how its unique maturity makes it a clean read on Federal Reserve policy expectations, why it has dropped less than other maturities in the recent rally, and what that mean...

Lucas and Luna break down why the 2-year Treasury yield has been stuck near 4.13% for weeks — even as the 10-year and 30-year yields drift higher. They explore the role of the Fed's interest on reserve balances (IORB) at 3.65%, the 3-month bill yield at 3.79%, and the market's view on rate cuts through 2027. Using the current 2-10 spread of 40 basis points and declining 5-year note yield, they exp...

The 5-year Treasury note yield has fallen below 4.2 percent, dropping 2.1 percent over the last five days. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why this move matters for the bond market. They discuss how the 5-year note has become the new bellwether for interest rate expectations, as it sits in the middle of the curve and reflects both Fed policy expectations and long-term growth forecasts....

Lucas and Luna explore why the 5-year Treasury note is increasingly becoming the market's favored indicator for rate expectations, even as the 2-year and 10-year get more headlines. Lucas explains how the 5-year's yield of 4.20% sits at a key inflection point, reflecting a tug-of-war between near-term Fed cuts and long-term inflation uncertainty. They discuss how institutional traders are using 5-...

On June 11, 2026, the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.03 percent, a level not sustained since late 2023. Lucas and Luna break down what drove it there—term premium repricing, fiscal supply fears, and the Fed's rate path—and what it signals for long-term borrowers, pension funds, and the broader bond market. They anchor the conversation around the 30-year's move from 4.8 percent in early May to above...

Episode 43 of The Bond Market Podcast digs into a paradox: the 10-year yield is stuck above 4.5 percent, the 30-year is near 5 percent, yet implied volatility on Treasuries is near multi-year lows. Lucas and Luna explore what the MOVE index tells us about market psychology, why the Fed's steady hand and range-bound yields are luring dip-buyers, and how this low-volatility regime can change fast. T...

Episode 42 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna unpack why the 10-year Treasury yield is stubbornly holding above 4.5 percent as of June 10, 2026. They examine the 4.53 percent level on the 10-year note, the 5.01 percent on the long bond, and the widening gap between short-term rates and long-term yields. The hosts discuss how the Fed's rate-cut pause, sticky inflation data from...

Lucas and Luna dig into the 2-year Treasury yield, which is hovering near 4.17% as of June 5, 2026, defying expectations of a sharper drop. They explain why the 2-year is the market's best gauge of rate-cut timing, how it differs from the Fed funds rate at 3.62%, and what the 41-basis-point gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields signals about the economy. Using recent data on SOFR and the 5-yea...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but in early June 2026, the spread between the 3-month T-bill and the 10-year Treasury turned positive for the first time since October 2022. Lucas and Luna break down what that shift means — not as a recession signal, but as a window into how the bond market is repricing expectations for Fed policy, inflation, and economic growth. They walk th...

On this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the widening spread between the 3-month T-bill yield and the 10-year Treasury note. As of June 8, 2026, the 3-month yield sits at 3.78 percent while the 10-year is at 4.47 percent — a 69-basis-point gap that tells a story about market expectations and Fed policy. The hosts explain why this particular spread matters...

Lucas and Luna explore why the 3-month Treasury bill yield has barely budged at 3.78% while longer-term yields have moved notably in recent weeks. They unpack what this sticky short-end tells us about market expectations for the Fed, the liquidity preference of investors parking cash, and what it might signal about near-term rate policy. They also reference the recent hot jobs report and its impli...

Episode 37 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo drills into the 3-month Treasury bill yield, which sits at 3.78 percent as of June 4, 2026 — flat while the rest of the curve shifts. Lucas and Luna explain why the shortest Treasury is the bond market's canary in the coal mine, how its spread to the fed funds rate signals liquidity stress, and what the flat bill yield tells us about market anxiet...

Episode 36 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo dives into the recent steepening of the 2-year to 10-year yield spread, which hit 38 basis points in early June 2026. Lucas and Luna break down what this curve move signals about the economy, the Fed’s next move, and how bond investors should adjust their portfolios. With the 10-year yield at 4.47 percent and the 2-year at 4.05 percent, the spread...

Episode 35 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo dives into why the 30-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5 percent as of June 6, 2026, and what that signals for long-term borrowers, retirees, and the broader economy. Lucas and Luna examine the latest data showing the 30-year yield at 4.97 percent, up from 4.99 percent earlier in the week, while the 10-year sits at 4.47 percent and the 2-year...

The 30-year Treasury yield is hovering just below 5 percent. Lucas and Luna explain what that level signals about long-term inflation expectations, fiscal policy, and the bond market's view of the next decade. They break down why the long bond is moving independently from the rest of the curve and what that means for mortgage rates, pension funds, and your portfolio. No hot takes, just a clear loo...

Lucas and Luna dissect the surprising rise in the 3-month Treasury bill yield to 3.78 percent, up from 3.77. While most attention is on the 10-year and 2-year, the short end of the curve is flashing a subtle warning. With the 10-year yield at 4.49 and the curve steepening, the 3-month rate—a proxy for funding stress and liquidity—has been creeping higher even as the Fed holds rates steady. Lucas e...

The 2-year Treasury yield has been hovering near 4.08 percent as of early June 2026, and it's sending a very specific signal about when the Fed might actually cut rates. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the short end of the curve matters more than the 10-year for rate-cut timing, how the 2-year yield has moved in lockstep with Fed fund futures, and what the current 42-basis-point spread...