The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: TIPS spreads have been compressing even as core inflation stays sticky above 3 percent. They walk through the mechanics of breakeven inflation rates, why the TIPS market might be sending a false signal, and what it means for fixed-income investors who rely on inflation protection. Drawing on July 2026 data — the 10-year TIPS yield at 1.85 percent, the 5-year break...

In Episode 105 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between TIPS and nominal Treasuries, using the breakeven inflation rate as a compass for market psychology. With the 10-year breakeven sliding to 2.15% and the Fed's interest on reserve balances stuck at 3.65%, they unpack what the TIPS market is saying about the durability of inflation over the next decade....

Episode 104 of The Bond Market Podcast: Lucas and Luna examine why investment-grade corporate bond spreads are widening even as Treasury yields remain elevated. With the yield curve steepening and the Fed holding rates at 3.65 percent, companies like Verizon and Lockheed Martin are turning to private credit—a $70 billion Goldman Sachs deal this week signals a structural shift. The hosts unpack how...

Lucas and Luna explore a quiet but consequential shift in fixed income: the growing decoupling of agency mortgage-backed securities from Treasury yields. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.55 percent and the 30-year at 5.05 percent, MBS spreads have widened sharply in July 2026, driven by elevated prepayment uncertainty, Federal Reserve portfolio runoff, and a structural decline in new origination vol...

The 3-month Treasury yield has dropped to 3.86 percent, even though the Fed's interest on reserves sits at 3.65. Lucas and Luna explain why short-term yields are diverging from the Fed's policy rate. The episode drills into the mechanics of repo markets, money market fund flows, and Treasury bill supply. Lucas points out that the 3-month yield is now just 21 basis points above the IORB rate — the...

The Federal Reserve released minutes from its June meeting on July 8, 2026, and they showed something rare: an open split among voting members. Lucas and Luna dig into the details—how the 10-year yield at 4.48 percent and the 2-year at 4.13 percent reflect a market that doesn't know which way the Fed will move next. They trace the 'family fight' to the gap between the Fed's 3.65 percent interest o...

In episode 100 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna mark the milestone by zooming out — not to recap past episodes, but to ask what the yield curve on July 8, 2026 actually says about the market's own long-run expectations. They anchor on the 3-month versus 10-year spread, now 0.61 percentage points, and the 10-year at 4.48 percent, and explore why term premium — not just expected rate cuts...

The Fed's Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) is the quiet mechanism that keeps short-term Treasury yields from falling below 3.65 percent. When the 2-year yield recently dipped to 4.14 and the 3-month yield slid to 3.82, that floor prevented a steeper drop. Lucas explains how IORB works, why money market funds use it as a rate anchor, and what happens if the Fed cuts IORB before the fed funds rat...

Episode 98 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo drills into one specific number: the spread between the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, now at about 50 basis points. Lucas and Luna explore what that gap says about the term premium investors demand for holding long-duration bonds in July 2026, why that premium has expanded as the yield curve steepens, and whether the 30-year yield above 4.9...

In July 2026, the SOFR-Treasury basis trade has become a quiet battleground for hedge funds and dealer desks. Lucas and Luna unpack how the Secured Overnight Financing Rate is diverging from Treasury bill yields, creating a low-risk arbitrage that's drawing billions. With the 3-month T-bill at 3.85 percent and interest on reserves at 3.65 percent, the spread is compelling for levered players. But...

Episode 96 of The Bond Market Podcast: Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising divergence between the 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed's policy rate in July 2026. With the 2-year at 4.17% and the Fed holding at 3.65%, they explore how aggressive T-bill supply and shifting rate expectations are reshaping the short end of the curve. Lucas breaks down the mechanics of the 3-month vs 2-year spread, t...

State and local government bonds are on a tear relative to Treasuries. The 10-year yield sits at 4.48% as of July 1, 2026, but many high-grade municipal bonds now yield more than Treasuries on a tax-equivalent basis. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics: why supply is limited, demand from insurance companies and high-net-worth individuals is surging, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 4.97% is p...

Episode 94 of The Bond Market Podcast: Lucas and Luna examine a fresh phenomenon shaking the short end of the Treasury curve. With the 3-month yield at 3.85 percent and the Fed's interest on reserves at 3.65 percent, the Treasury's massive bill issuance is creating a peculiar dynamic where short-term yields are actually falling relative to longer-term ones — the opposite of what textbook economics...

Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising data point from July 2026: TIPS are underperforming nominal Treasuries even as inflation stays sticky. The TIP ETF is down 0.3% over the past five days while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.48. They explain what's going on with break-even inflation rates, the role of real yields, and what this means for fixed-income investors who thought TIPS were a safe hedge....

The yield curve is steepening — the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has widened to 35 basis points, up from 31 just days ago. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving that move: the 2-year yield is stuck near 4.17 percent, anchored by a Fed holding its policy rate at 3.65 percent, while the 30-year bond yield has jumped to 4.97 percent. They explain how long-term...

The yield curve has been inverted for two years, but something strange is happening in July 2026: the 2-year yield is rising while the 10-year yield is rising faster, pushing the spread to 35 basis points. Lucas and Luna explore why the bond market is starting to unpriciate recession risk—and what that means for investors. They focus on the 10-year yield bump from 4.44 to 4.48 and the 2-year climb...

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore the puzzling disconnect between the 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed's rate stance. With the 2-year yield at 4.17% as of July 1, 2026, it's refusing to follow the Fed's 3.65% interest on reserves. They break down why the bond market is pricing in higher rates despite the Fed holding steady, using the latest data on the 10-year yie...

Episode 89 of The Bond Market Podcast: In July 2026, the 2-year Treasury yield is rising even as the Fed holds rates steady. Lucas and Luna dive into why short-term yields are decoupling from policy, focusing on the Treasury's massive bill issuance and the market's hawkish repricing. With the 2-year at 4.14 and the 10-year at 4.44, the spread is narrowing—but not for the reasons you'd expect. The...

Episode 88 of The Bond Market Podcast unpacks a striking divergence: the 30-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.97 percent, while the fed funds rate sits at 3.65 percent. Lucas and Luna explore the term premium, the supply glut of long-dated debt, and the structural demand gap from pension funds and foreign buyers. They walk through how the 30-year's steep yield is reshaping mortgage rates and...

It's one of the most obscure but powerful tools the Fed has: Interest on Reserve Balances, or IORB. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explain how the IORB rate, currently at 3.65 percent, acts as a floor under short-term yields and ripples all the way out to the 30-year bond. They walk through the mechanics—how banks arbitrage the gap between IORB and Treasury bill yields, why the 3-month yield at 3...

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how a surge in Treasury bill issuance is creating upward pressure on short-term yields, even as the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady. With the 3-month yield at 3.87 percent and the 2-year note rising to 4.10 percent, they explore the mechanics of bill supply, dealer balance sheets, and the impact on money market funds. T...

Episode 85 of The Bond Market Podcast dives into the most powerful rate you've never heard of: the Interest on Reserve Balances, or IORB. As of July 1, 2026, it sits at 3.65 percent, quietly acting as the floor beneath short-term yields. Lucas explains how this rate — paid by the Fed to banks on their reserves — works as the actual 'fed funds rate' in practice, and why the effective fed funds rate...

On June 30, 2026, Cleveland Fed President Hammack warns that AI could fuel inflation, potentially triggering rate hikes. Yet the 2-year Treasury yield is dropping — now at 4.07%, down from 4.09%. Lucas and Luna explore why the bond market is betting against the Fed's hawkish rhetoric, examining the growing disconnect between Fedspeak and yield action. They dig into the 10-year yield sitting at 4.3...

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine a striking trend that has recently reshaped fixed-income markets: massive inflows into corporate bond ETFs in June 2026. They break down why LQD and HYG have seen significant buying even as Treasury yields remain elevated, and what this says about investor appetite for credit risk. Using the latest yield data, the hosts explore how...

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how the 30-year Treasury yield, currently at 4.86 percent, is influencing mortgage rates and the housing market. They break down the record-wide spread between mortgage bonds and Treasuries, explain why the 30-year yield has stayed above 4.8 percent for months, and discuss what this means for homebuyers and refinancing activity in...