The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

Lucas and Luna dig into the 30-year Treasury yield, which is holding above 4.8% even as the Fed signals a possible rate hike. They explore what the long bond's stubborn premium tells us about inflation expectations, term premium, and the changing shape of the yield curve. With the 10-year at 4.4 and the 2-year at 4.09, the curve is steepening — but not for the usual reasons. Lucas breaks down the...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore a striking divergence in fixed-income markets: while Treasury yields have ticked down in late June 2026, high-yield corporate bonds—junk bonds—are barely budging. They dig into the data: the 10-year yield at 4.40 percent, the HYG ETF flat over the past week, while investment-grade bonds like LQD are up. What explains the disconnect? Lucas points to a shift i...

While US 10-year yields hover near 4.4% and the 2s10s spread stays flat at 31 basis points, bond markets in Europe and Japan are offering better risk-adjusted returns. Lucas and Luna break down why international bonds are drawing investor attention in late June 2026, with the 30-year Treasury stuck at 4.86% and the Fed holding rates at 3.63%. They look at how the yield advantage is shifting abroad...

The bond market has a built-in inflation forecast called the TIPS break-even rate. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack how the five-year break-even rate has climbed to 2.6 percent even as nominal yields dip, what that spread is telling us about the Fed's next move, and why the gap between five-year and ten-year break-evens is the real story. They walk through the mechanics of Treasury Inflation...

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari just said he expects a rate hike this year. Lucas and Luna dive into what that statement means for the bond market as of late June 2026. With the 10-year yield at 4.37 percent and the 2-year at 4.09 percent, the yield curve is flattening again. They unpack Kashkari's hawkish stance, compare it to other FOMC members, and look at how bond markets are pricing i...

Episode 76 of The Bond Market Podcast explores a quiet divergence: TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) are outperforming nominal Treasuries in June 2026. Lucas and Luna break down why the TIPS ETF (TIP) is up 0.7% over the past five days while nominal bonds lag, and what this signals about inflation expectations. They examine the breakeven inflation rate, how sticky CPI readings are dri...

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the surge in bond ETF flows this June — and what it means for Treasury yields and credit markets. With the 10-year yield at 4.39%, down from recent highs, and bond ETFs like TLT and LQD seeing strong inflows, the hosts examine whether this is a 'hunt for yield' or a deeper signal about rate expectations. They discuss...

Episode 74 of The Bond Market Podcast digs into the record-breaking surge in bond ETF inflows this June. Lucas and Luna break down the $12 billion that poured into fixed-income ETFs in the first three weeks of the month, using live data from June 25, 2026. They explain what's driving the hunt for yield: the 10-year Treasury at 4.50 percent, the 30-year near 4.94, and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3....

This week the Federal Reserve released its annual stress test results, revealing that U.S. banks can absorb $708 billion in losses. Lucas and Luna break down why that number matters for bond markets — especially as the 10-year yield sits at 4.50 percent and the 2-year yield dropped to 4.16 percent. They explain how the stress test changed the outlook for bank capital requirements, why JPMorgan jus...

Episode 72 of The Bond Market Podcast explores a surprising force in fixed income: municipal bonds. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.51% and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.63%, muni yields have diverged sharply, offering tax-adjusted returns that rival corporates. Lucas and Luna break down why state and local debt is suddenly the hottest corner of the bond market, using the recent $2 billion Californ...

Lucas and Luna examine why the 3-month Treasury yield has stayed elevated near 3.85 percent despite the Fed holding its policy rate at 3.63. They break down the mechanics of the repo market, money market fund flows, and the role of the Reverse Repo Facility in keeping short-term rates above the Fed's target. Using the latest data from June 2026, they explain why the 3-month yield acts as a stealth...

The 10-year Treasury yield is holding above 4.5 percent in late June 2026, even as the Fed funds rate sits at 3.63 and the yield curve remains inverted by 27 basis points. Lucas and Luna drill into the specific forces keeping long-term yields elevated: term premium, fiscal deficit concerns, and foreign demand dynamics. They break down the 10-year yield's two components — expectations for short-ter...

Alan Greenspan died this week at age 100. Lucas and Luna use his career as a lens to understand today's inverted yield curve and the Fed's current communication style. They trace the 10-year yield from 1981's 15.8% peak through the Greenspan era's 'conundrum' to today's 4.46%, and ask whether the former chairman's playbook of data-dependency and deliberate ambiguity still works for Kevin Warsh. Sp...

On June 22 2026 Alan Greenspan the former Federal Reserve chairman dies at age 100. Lucas and Luna discuss how Greenspan's 18 year tenure shaped modern bond market analysis from his 1990s yield curve warnings to the Greenspan put. They tie his legacy to today's market data the 10 year yield at 4.49 percent and the 2s10s spread at 27 basis points and ask whether Kevin Warsh the new Fed chair is con...

In episode 67 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack why the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.49 percent even as the Fed holds rates steady at 3.63 percent. They focus on the surprising role of FOMC minutes—specifically the June 2026 statement's shift in language around uncertainty and balance sheet runoff. The hosts explain how the 'dot plot' revisions and Chair Kevin Warsh's 'v...

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dissect a quiet but significant anomaly: the 3-month Treasury yield is climbing while the Fed Funds rate sits frozen at 3.63 percent. With the 3-month yield now at 3.83 percent — up from 3.79 last week — Lucas explains what this 'basis point creep' signals about liquidity preferences in the banking system. He walks through the mechanics of...

The yield curve is flattening again, and Lucas and Luna explain why this matters more than the absolute level of rates. With the 2-year note yielding 4.20 percent and the 10-year at 4.49 percent, the spread has narrowed to just 27 basis points — down from 29 a week ago. They drill into what's driving the move: the market pricing in a more hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh, a surprising demand for shor...

On June 20, 2026, the 2-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points in one week to 4.20 percent, while the 10-year yield rose more slowly. Lucas and Luna break down what this steepening spread tells us about the market's view of the Fed's next move. They discuss how the 2-year yield is the bond market's purest bet on short-term rates, why a rising 2-year yield often signals confidence that the Fed...

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dissect how SpaceX's long-awaited IPO has sent ripples through fixed-income markets. With the 10-year yield climbing to 4.49 percent and the 2-year yield at 4.20 percent, the hosts explore the connection between a blockbuster equity debut and Treasury volatility. They discuss how the 'riskiest SpaceX trade' impacted high-yield spreads, why...

Episode 62 of The Bond Market Podcast digs into a quiet but critical signal: the 3-month Treasury yield has risen to 3.83 percent, outpacing the Fed funds rate at 3.63. Lucas and Luna explain why this inversion between short-term rates and the central bank's policy rate matters for money markets, repo activity, and the broader economy. They walk through the mechanics of how the 3-month yield behav...

The Fed Funds effective rate has been pinned at 3.63 percent since May, even as the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields climb. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed's interest on reserve balances (IORB) creates a floor under short-term rates, and how that floor is shaping the yield curve today. They walk through the mechanics of the Fed's rate toolkit, what the 3.63 percent level r...

In episode 60 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a remarkable anomaly in the Treasury market in June 2026: the yield curve has been steepening sharply over the past five trading days, but not because the economy is weakening. Instead, long-term yields have dropped faster than short-term yields, compressing the 10-year from 4.47 to 4.43 and the 30-year from 4.97 to 4.90. Meanwhile t...

The Fed held rates steady on June 17, but the real story is the statement itself. Chairman Warsh pared down the language, removed the cutting bias, and refused to give a rate forecast. This episode unpacks why that matters for bond markets right now. We look at the new 10-year yield at 4.43, the 2-year at 4.05, and what the flattening curve signals about the Fed's next move. Lucas and Luna discuss...

The federal funds rate has been pinned at 3.63 percent since May, despite inflation cooling and the economy slowing. Lucas and Luna examine why the Fed is holding steady, using the latest data on the 10-year yield at 4.47 percent, the 2-year at 4.07 percent, and the spread between them at 38 basis points. They discuss the Fed's dual mandate, the role of the interest on reserve balances rate at 3.6...

Episode 57 of The Bond Market Podcast. Lucas and Luna examine a creeping problem in the Treasury market: dwindling depth in the order book even as yields drift lower. Using the latest data from June 17, 2026 — with the 10-year at 4.47 percent and the 30-year holding near 4.97 — they explain why liquidity metrics from bid-ask spreads to dealer inventories all point the same way. Lucas breaks down h...