The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

Lucas and Luna explore how credit ratings have become the dominant force in corporate bond trading, even surpassing yield in some strategies. They examine the shift from ratings as compliance tools to active trading signals, using recent data on investment-grade ETF flows and the spread between AAA and BBB bonds. The episode breaks down why traders now watch rating agency moves as closely as Fed s...

Episode 30 of The Bond Market Podcast examines mortgage-backed securities and the widening MBS spread as a signal for fixed-income investors. Lucas and Luna break down how the spread over Treasuries has moved to 150 basis points, what that implies for prepayment risk and Fed policy, and why agency MBS might be a contrarian play in mid-2026. Using current data—10-year yield at 4.46, 30-year at 4.97...

Lucas and Luna dive into why investment-grade corporate bond ETFs like LQD and AGG are trading below their net asset values — and what that tells you about liquidity stress in fixed-income markets. They unpack the mechanics of ETF pricing versus underlying bonds, the role of authorized participants, and why the current discounts are a symptom of a bigger structural shift. With the 10-year Treasury...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the recent steepening of the Treasury yield curve — where the 10-year yield has risen to 4.47% while the 2-year sits at 4.05%, widening the spread to 42 basis points. They explain what drives a steepening curve, how it signals shifting expectations for Fed policy and economic growth, and what bond investors should watch next. Along the way, they discuss t...

Episode 27 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo cuts to the foundation: the fed funds rate. Lucas and Luna walk through how a 3.62% effective rate shapes everything from 2-year notes to 30-year bonds, using the latest data from June 2, 2026. They explain why short-term yields track the fed funds rate almost mechanically, how the yield curve's current 42-basis-point spread between 10-year and 2-...

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and what their real yields signal about the current economic environment. With the 10-year nominal yield flat at 4.45 percent and the 30-year yield nudging 5 percent, the hosts examine the breakeven inflation rate and how TIPS are pricing in future CPI. Lucas walks thro...

Lucas and Luna explain the Fed's new approach to quantitative tightening—letting bonds roll off passively without active sales. They discuss what this means for the yield curve, with the 2-year at 3.99% and the 10-year at 4.45%, and why the 30-year yield remains stubbornly near 5%. Plus, a look at how the Fed's balance sheet strategy is keeping short-term rates steady. #Fed #QuantitativeTightening...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but in May 2026 the 10-year minus 2-year spread turned positive again — now at 47 basis points. Lucas and Luna unpack what this normalization means for bond investors, mortgage rates, and recession signals. They walk through the historical track record of curve steepening, the role of the 3-month yield still above the 10-year, and how to positi...

The yield curve has been inverted for over 700 days – a record stretch that historically preceded every recession. Lucas and Luna break down what the 2-year versus 10-year spread of 47 basis points signals today, using current data from May 28, 2026. They explore why this inversion hasn't triggered a downturn yet, what the 3-month to 10-year spread adds to the picture, and how the curve's eventual...

Episode 22 of The Bond Market Podcast zeroes in on the 7-year Treasury note — a maturity that sits between the Fed-sensitive short end and the macro-driven long bond. Lucas and Luna explain why the 7-year has become a liquidity barometer for institutional investors, especially pension funds and foreign central banks. They break down the current 4.15% yield, how it compares to the 5-year and 10-yea...

The 20-year Treasury bond is the overlooked maturity on the curve, but right now it offers a yield premium over both the 10-year and 30-year bonds. Lucas and Luna examine why the 20-year yield sits at 4.65 percent, how it became a liquidity oddity after its reintroduction in 2020, and what the gap between the 20-year and 30-year yields signals about the market's view on long-term inflation and fis...

The ten-year Treasury yield has slipped to 4.45 percent, down from 4.48 percent last week. Lucas and Luna look at why this matters for bond investors — and what it says about the market's expectation for rate cuts. They talk about the 30-year yield hovering near 5 percent, the short end of the curve still above 3.5 percent, and how the yield curve is flattening again. They also touch on what a Fed...

Lucas and Luna explore a less-discussed corner of the Treasury market: the 3-year note. With the 3-year yield sitting at 3.94% and the 10-year at 4.48%, the spread between them has narrowed sharply. They explain why this mid-curve maturity is a better indicator of the Fed's expected rate path than the 2-year or 5-year, and how a flattening 3-10 spread signals market skepticism about future rate cu...

The 5-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.16 percent, down over two percent in the last week. Lucas and Luna explore what this move signals about the bond market's expectations for the economy and the Fed. They break down the dynamics driving the short-to-intermediate part of the curve, from growth concerns to rate-cut bets, and what it means for investors in ETFs like IEF. With the 2-year yield a...

On May 28, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.45 percent, its lowest in weeks. Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving the move: a batch of softer economic data, a flat Fed funds rate at 3.64 percent, and the market's growing conviction that the next rate cut is closer than expected. They walk through the mechanics of how falling long-term yields affect bond ETFs like TLT and IEF, and why t...

Everyone watches the 2-year and 10-year yields. But the 5-year Treasury note is quietly stealing the spotlight as the most sensitive part of the curve right now. With the 5-year yield at 4.18% after dropping nearly 2% in a week, Lucas and Luna unpack why this maturity is the bond market's canary in the coal mine. They explore how the 5-year yield has become a battleground between Fed expectations...

Lucas and Luna explore how the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate—the Fed funds rate—acts as the anchor for the entire bond market. Using live data from late May 2026, they show how the 3-month yield sits just 4 basis points below the interest on reserve balances, the 2-year yield has risen sharply to 4.13%, and the 10-year yield sits at 4.56%. They explain the transmission mechanism from F...

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the short end of the Treasury yield curve, focusing on the 2-year and 3-month yields. With the 10-year yield hovering around 4.5 percent and the Fed Funds rate at 3.64 percent, the gap between short-term yields and the Fed's policy rate is sending a clear signal about where the market thinks rates are headed. Lucas explains how th...

The 30-year Treasury bond yield has been stuck above 5 percent for weeks. Lucas and Luna dig into what that stubborn level says about long-term inflation expectations, term premium, and the bond market's quiet bet on fiscal policy. They look at the 5.03 percent reading from May 26, 2026, contrast it with the 4.57 percent 10-year yield, and ask whether the long bond is finally offering compensation...

Episode 12 of The Bond Market Podcast examines the tightening spread between high-yield corporate bonds and Treasuries in late May 2026. Lucas and Luna break down why the HYG ETF is up while the 30-year yield sits above 5 percent, and what it means for risk appetite. They discuss how the 10-year yield at 4.56 percent and the two-year at 4.08 percent create a steepening curve, and why investors are...

The 3-month Treasury yield has climbed to 3.68 percent, bucking the trend of longer-dated yields falling. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explain why the short end matters most for timing the Fed's next move. They break down the relationship between the overnight rate, the interest on reserve balances, and the 3-month yield — and what the current flatness tells us about the Fed's stance. With the...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the two-year Treasury yield, currently at 4.08%, and what its recent uptick signals about Federal Reserve policy. They explain why the two-year is the best gauge of market expectations for the Fed's next move, how it has disconnected from the ten-year yield, and what the widening spread means for bond investors. Using real-time data from May 2026, they exp...

The 30-year Treasury yield has been hovering above 5% for weeks, and in this episode Lucas and Luna unpack why that number matters far beyond the bond market. They break down the specific forces keeping long-term yields elevated — term premium, fiscal debt dynamics, and the Fed's unwillingness to signal cuts anytime soon. Using the latest data from May 2026, they explain why the 30-year yield is m...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the recent rise in the 2-year Treasury yield to 4.08 percent and what it means for fixed-income investors. They discuss how a steepening yield curve and a jump in short-term yields are pulling cash out of money markets into longer Treasuries. Specific data points include the 10Y-2Y spread narrowing to 0.43 and the 3-month yield edging up to 3.68. The hosts a...

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a growing trend: as Treasury yields hover near multi-year highs, investors are increasingly moving into riskier assets to capture extra yield. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.56% and the 30-year at 5.06%, the classic 'risk-free' return looks attractive, but some are pushing into high-yield corporate bonds and even equities. The host...