RBC's Markets in Motion

The big things you need to know: Today in the podcast, an update on our S&P 500 sector outlook for 2025, and the results of the quarterly RBC analyst survey that we just updated in late December. Three big things you need to know: First, globally – taking into account the views of our analysts in all of our coverage regions -- our analysts tilt constructive on performance, valuations and deman...

The big things you need to know: First, modest downward revisions have returned to bottom-up consensus S&P 500 EPS forecasts. Second, frothy US equity market sentiment has been a problem for the US equity market, but our work suggests that many investors have become cognizant of this problem and that it is starting to self-correct. Third, outside of the biggest market cap names in the S&P...

The format of this special edition of RBC’s Markets in Motion is a little bit different from what we usually do, and runs a little bit longer than usual. In this episode, Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, is joined by two of her macro partners at RBC Capital Markets, Head of US Rates Strategy, Blake Gwinn, and Equity Derivative Strategist Amy Wu Silverman. With 2024 winding down, all of...

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, positioning in US equity futures per the weekly CFTC data has taken a tiny hit. Second, consensus US GDP forecasts have moved up, along with consensus Fed Funds and 10-year yield forecasts. Third, other things that jump out on our high frequency indicators include the continued decline in bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 50...

Today in the podcast: Our thoughts on the outlook for the S&P 500 sectors in 2025, with a focus on those where we've made changes to our view. The big things you need to know: First, we have upgraded Communication Services from market weight to overweight. Second, we are downgrading Health Care to market weight from overweight. Third, we are downgrading Materials from overweight to market weig...

Today in the podcast: Highlights from our 2025 US Equity Market outlook, in which we reviewed the top 10 things we’re thinking about as the new year comes into view. We won’t go through all ten, but are going to run through some of the more important highlights regarding our broader market call. The big things you need to know: First, our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target is 6,600 – that’s our base...

Three big things you need to know: First, over the past week we’ve become increasingly convinced that a 5-10% pullback in the S&P 500 may have already started. Second, post-election company commentary has been heavily weighted to tariffs, a part of the Trump agenda that has concerned many equity investors. Third, other things that jump out from our high frequency indicators include Financials...

Three big things you need to know: First, earnings season is winding down with a disappointing feel to us on the stats, though it’s admittedly not driving price action right now. Second, in our transcript reading, a mixed macro and consumer remained in focus, as companies began to highlight key policy issues they are watching post election. Third, positioning in US equity futures, for both the S&a...

Today in the podcast, we run through three things in focus in our conversations following the US election.  First, we review the tailwinds for US equities that we’ve been highlighting from a Trump win, along with some of the headwinds to watch out for. Second, we highlight why we think Small Caps have at least a little bit more room to run and what we’re watching to help us know when it’s tim...

We’ve recorded this on the day of the US Presidential Election, and that’s what we're focusing on today. There are 7 big things you need to know: They focus on the set-up, the historical playbook, bottom-up policy implications per our analyst survey, our thoughts on positioning trades, one tailwind that will manifest regardless of what happens, tail risks, and our rundown of what we’ll be watching...

Three big things you need to know: First, the early S&P 500 stats are now pointing to a mildly disappointing 3Q24 reporting season so far. Second, a mixed backdrop, the need to wait a bit longer for interest rate relief, and the need to get through the election were key themes in last week’s earnings calls. Third, the US election has been in focus in our recent meetings with US-based long-only...

Three big things you need to know today: First, the early earnings stats are mixed for the broader market but promising for the rotation trade. Second, company commentary continues to suggest the plumbing of the economy is in good shape, with a few clogs. Third, our examination of index, sector and industry performance and trends in polling and betting market averages suggest to us that several tr...

The big things you need to know: First, we’ve done some housekeeping on our S&P 500 EPS estimates for 2024 and 2025, resulting in very modest changes. Second, we highlight the two things we’re paying the most attention to in reporting season – specifically, qualitative color from companies on hot macro topics and whether mega cap Growth can maintain its earnings dominance. Third, we highlight...

Two big things you need to know: First, globally our analysts are generally constructive on performance, valuations and interest rates, with Materials most in favor and Consumer Staples most out of favor across all of the questions we asked. Second, within the US we are reiterating our overweights on Financials and Materials, upgrading Health Care to overweight, and downgrading Utilities to market...

The big thing you need to know: Small Caps got a boost from the better-than-expected jobs report on Friday, reinforcing our belief that a return of economic tailwinds is the catalyst they need to take valuation and positioning to the next level.

Three big things you need to know: First, our survey results, which are bottom-up in nature and driven by domestic policy views, imply that the event is relevant to US equity markets, but perhaps less so than some market participants may believe. For our US analysts, a Republican sweep was seen as the most bullish outcome, while a Democratic sweep was seen as the most bearish outcome, but the key...

Two big things you need to know: First, valuations continue to look full for 2024 on the S&P 500, but our model argues for upside in 2025. Second, there’s a lot of little stuff to talk about right now. We run a few of the key updates on our high frequency indicators including those on the rotation trade, small caps, and the election.

Two big things you need to know: First, a few things (besides renewed optimism over a 50 bps cut) went right for Small Caps last week. Second, we highlight our current, top-down US equity market read throughs from the domestic policy platforms of the Harris and Trump campaigns. The longer-term signal their platforms are sending is more interesting to us than the noise around any shorter-term polic...

Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast, recorded September 9th, 2024. I’m Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers. Three big things you need to know: First, Friday’s jobs report added to investors’ uncertainty regarding the labor market, but the data point that concerned us from last week was the spik...

Two big things you need to know: First, as we return from the Labor Day holiday weekend in the US, we find that major challenges for US equities are still lurking. We remain confident in our 5,700 YE 2024 S&P 500 price target, but acknowledge the challenges that must be worked through. Second, other updates from our high frequency indicators keep us in the camp that believes the US economy is...

The big things you need to know: First, 2Q24 earnings season is ending up solid. With most reports in, we highlight a few of the most interesting charts in our deck on earnings right now. Second, other updates on our high frequency indicators were generally positive for US equities and mixed for the rotation trade. We end the summer of 2024 with increased conviction that August 5th was the low in...

Three big things you need to know: First, last week’s price action relieved some pressures on the stock market, but didn’t solve its major problems. Second, earnings remain solid with no major deterioration in corporate tone. Third, we’d be more selective with value-oriented defensive sectors going forward.

Three big things you need to know: First, earnings season has been fine so far, and what we’ve read has kept us in the “tired goldilocks” camp. Second, we run through the latest updates for the indicators we’re monitoring in the rotation trade. We are mindful of headfakes, but think the trade may still have some room to run in the short term. We also still think whether a durable multi-year leader...

Four big things you need to know: First, investor sentiment has gotten as extreme as it did last August and this past March. Second, earnings season is off to a solid start, but we are still looking for some additional evidence in support of the idea that we’re seeing a durable leadership shift rather than a short-term rotation trade. Third, we’ve been monitoring our other high frequency indicator...

Two big things you need to know: First, we see 2Q24 reporting season as a key test for the rotation trade that attempted to start up again last week. Second, we remain worried about a pullback in the S&P 500 given the latest developments on our sentiment and positioning work, but timing seems a bit more complicated due to last week’s CPI print and surge in optimism on Fed cuts.