RBC's Markets in Motion

The big things you need to know: First, we review the bull thesis that we heard in client meetings last week, and our thoughts on where it could go wrong. Second, we review how the rally in equities has been looking a bit overdone on our valuation and EPS modeling, and how we’re also starting to run out of room on one of our sentiment studies. Third, conditions are rather mixed for US equities at...

Four big things you need to know: First, globally our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months. Second, driven in part by our survey results, we are making six changes to our US sector calls – we dig in a little deeper to the upgrades of Materials, Consumer Staples, and REITs here. Third, while we don’t make recommendations on non-US sectors, we do highlight how Financial...

For all my Buy-side friends - If you find our research and podcast helpful, we'd appreciate your vote in Portfolio Strategy in this year's Extel/II survey (www.extelinsights.com/voting). Voting is open until Friday, June 27th. Listen to this episode for a recap of our biggest call of the year... Or watch my video message - https://players.brightcove.net/6021289101001/VyvCc9BZx_default/index.html?v...

The big things you need to know: First, solid earnings stats are in place as US equity investors wait for the onset of 2Q25 reporting season. Second, the latest Business Roundtable survey highlighted weaker corporate vibes relative to March, echoing the tone in last week’s earnings call transcripts to some degree for Russell 3000 companies, where cost containment discussions jumped out to us. Thir...

The big things you need to know: First, the conflict in the Middle East comes at a complicated time for the US equity market, as our sentiment and seasonality work has been suggesting stock prices could keep moving up, while our valuation/earnings and GDP analysis has been suggesting that the stock market has gotten ahead of itself. We highlight the three potential challenges we see for the US equ...

The big things you need to know: First, consensus expectations for 2026 are inching up for S&P 500 EPS in a broad based way, a positive data point for the stock market but a slight one. Second, net bulls on the AAII survey have moved up sharply, and formally entered a less robust forward return environment last week. Third, the seasonal playbook reminds us that in recent years June and July ha...

RBC’s   Markets in Motion   is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. In this special edition, Lori is joined by her colleagues Amy Wu Silverman (RBC Derivatives Strategist) and Ben Fisher (RBC Midwest Sales, who works closely with the firm's macro strategists). They discuss the cur...

The big things you need to know: First, we are modestly revising our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target, taking it up 3% to 5,730 from 5,550. Our valuation and earnings models drive this number. Second, we view sentiment as the main risk to our call. Even though it’s been melting up in recent weeks, our sentiment model (based on AAII net bulls) is still the most constructive one in our price target...

The big things you need to know: First, the S&P 500 EPS backdrop has stabilized, but we still anticipate further downward revisions for 2025 S&P 500 EPS. After a preliminary model refresh, we are maintaining our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $258, which is below the bottom-up consensus of $265. Second, we’ve updated our S&P 500 valuation model to reflect updated RBC house views on k...

The big things you need to know: First, it was another week of stabilization on the earnings stats we track, helping to support the recent stabilization in equity market pricing. Second, there was a little less conversation about tariffs in last week’s earnings calls, which left some additional room for discussions on the health of the consumer and the impacts of non-tariff policy changes. Third,...

The big things you need to know: First, earnings sentiment has stabilized a bit, helping stock prices find some footing for the moment. Second, we run through our thoughts on what we learned from last week’s earnings calls. We think there are two different perspectives at play on the consumer, which may be adding to investor confusion. We exited the week seeing managing tariff impacts as a work in...

The big things you need to know: First, earnings sentiment is at an important crossroads, with the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions having fallen to 30%. Second, what we read in S&P 500 earnings call transcripts last week keeps us in the camp that recession is not a foregone conclusion, makes us concerned that any adverse impacts from tariffs may be felt a little later in the year or even...

The big things you need to know: First, the stock market is still experiencing a growth scare, in our view, where it is attempting to stabilize. We see more downside if recession is priced in. Second, we review how the process of resetting EPS expectations has begun, and run though key themes from the early reporters and companies that have presented at conferences since the Rose Garden. Our overa...

The big things you need to know: First, shortly after midnight on Friday morning, we cut our S&P 500 EPS forecast for 2025 to $258 and our YE 2025 price target to 5,550 – the price target cut was something we’d been telegraphing we’d do if the drawdown in the index broke 10% from peak for quite some time, which it did on Thursday. Second, as the stock market has continued to gap down, we’ve co...

The big things you need to know: The team tackles some of the top questions in consumer-related conversations today, including what their company and industry level interactions and data have been telling them about the current state of the consumer, whether the consumer has been retreating or simply shifting their spend, what's happening in different consumer cohorts, what they think the biggest...

The big things you need to know: First, trends in investor vibes were mixed last week, both in our quant work as well as last week’s investor conversations. Second, the median forward P/E for the S&P 500 has fallen sharply but remains well above average. We’ve also not yet seen significant adjustments to consensus EPS forecasts, which seems likely to keep confidence in P/E analysis low for now...

The big things you need to know: We’ve lowered our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,200 from 6,600, We’ve lowered our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $264 from $271. Among other adjustments, our new price target and EPS forecast embed the updated views of RBC’s Economics and Rates strategy team which were released last week. We have updated our year-end 2025 bear case for the S&P 500, wh...

RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we bring you a special edition of the podcast, recorded live at the RBC Financial institutions conference on March 5th, 2025. Ben Fisher (US Equity Sales, Midwest & Macro Sales Specialist) moderates a discussion...

The big things you need to know: First, we review our basic framework for thinking about drawdowns in US equities, a topic that’s been coming up in client meetings over the past few weeks, as investor uncertainty regarding the economy has increased. Second, we have refreshed the math behind our YE 2025 bear case of 5,775, specifically our valuation/EPS stress test. Third, we run through our latest...

The big things you need to know: First, we found more evidence of weakening investor and consumer vibes in last week’s data updates, while getting a mostly positive data point on corporate vibes, and a flattening in political vibes. Second, the rotation of funds flows from US equities to bonds and European equities strengthened last week.

The big things you need to know: First, there was very little change last week in the stats we monitor to track reporting season, aside from the continued drift lower in the bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to a little below $271. Second, uncertainty, policy, tariffs, and FX remained in focus in last week’s earnings calls. Third, we continued to find evidence of weakening vibes in...

The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, the earnings backdrop has softened a bit on the stats for the broader US equity market, and has also justified the rotation in performance leadership that has been seen. Second, company commentary in last week’s earnings calls highlighted the uncertain optimism that is driving US equity market performance at the moment. Third...

The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, 4Q24 earnings season looks solid on the stats so far. Second, bulls bounced back in the weekly AAII survey last week, as US equity flows stabilized.

The big things you need to know: First, the initial batch of 4Q24 earnings call commentary, which is mostly from Financials, highlights the optimism and uncertainty that are both embedded in the current outlook for stocks. Second, investor sentiment on the AAII survey continued to slip last week despite stabilization in the S&P 500 itself. Third, we continue to see some signs of mild rotation...

The big things you need to know: First, we review our thoughts on last Friday's jobs report and reaction in the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Second, with 4Q24 reporting season getting underway, we review what we’re listening for in S&P 500 company earnings calls. Third, we run through updates on other high frequency indicators, including a new chart comparing market cap and net income concent...