RBC's Markets in Motion

The big things you need to know: First, the investors we met with this past week, in our trip to London and Switzerland, were keen to explore other opportunities in US equities beyond Semis/Tech/AI, but had difficulty envisioning what those were. Second, we highlight continued outperformance of high price momentum in our factor work and what we’re seeing in our valuation work for this part of the...

In this special cross over edition (originally recorded for the RBC Capital Markets Macro Minutes podcast), Lori joins Blake Gwinn, Head of RBC Capital Markets US Rates Strategy in a conversation on US equities, US rates, and the Fed. What we discuss: Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine...

The big things you need to know: First, we have lifted our 12-month-forward S&P 500 price target to 7,900, which represents a 7.7% gain from the May 7th close. In adjusting our forecast, we are focusing on our valuation/EPS model, which does the best job of baking in a two-speed economy and earnings backdrop. Second, on bigger-picture positioning, we continue to prefer Growth over Value, US ov...

The big things you need to know: First, US equity market valuations are on the rise, but don’t look topped out yet. We remain constructive on the US equity market in the year ahead, recognizing that the path may not be linear. Second, last week’s earnings reports continued to point to resilient outlooks with a dose of caution fueled by a strong start to the year, highlighted challenges to consumer...

The big things you need to know: First, the three things that stuck out to us in our review of earnings calls last week included outlooks that emphasized resiliency but contained a dose of caution, the conversation on Iran war impacts (present and future) getting underway, and descriptions of cautious but stable consumers. Second, with US equities breaking out to a new 2026 high relative to non-US...

The big things you need to know: First, our analysts were generally constructive aside from the war. Second, our survey results reiterate the idea that the US is seen as a safety trade due to greater war resiliency, and that Europe does not necessarily present as a better alternative despite the potential for the US to lag if/when war fog clears. Third, we review the most interesting sector tidbit...

The big things you need to know: First, despite the strong rebound in the US equity market, investor sentiment remained subdued last week. This signals to us that there is room for US equities to run and climb a wall of worry. Second, 1Q26 reporting season got off to a strong start last week, evidenced by a sharp pickup in the percent of companies beating consensus EPS forecasts and reassuring com...

The big things you need to know: First, our 12-month S&P 500 price target remains 7,750, and we assume the index has put in a fragile, foggy bottom. Second, we run through our thoughts on what we’re hoping to learn more about in the upcoming reporting season. Third, other things that jump out include how 2026 EPS growth forecasts for most sectors have been frozen since the start of the war, an...

The big things you need to know: First, the tactical indicators we’ve been tracking to gauge when equity investors’ fears may have gone too far continue to show signs of significant deterioration but are not yet pointing to extreme fear suggesting more downside in stocks remains possible in the near term. Second, other things that jump out include new stress tests on our valuation/EPS model, the l...

The big things you need to know: First, we review our key takeaways from our review of March company commentary on the Middle East conflict on EPS calls and in conference presentations. What we read adds to our understanding of why the US equity market has been fairly resilient since the Iran strikes, and also leads us to believe that it may simply take more time for the equity community to fully...

The big things you need to know: First, in tandem with the 5% decline in the S&P 500, investor and consumer sentiment have slipped in recent updates as investors have digested the possibility of a longer conflict in Iran and consumers have started to notice higher gas prices. Second, we review our macro takeaways from RBC’s Financial Institutions conference, where we detected echoes of the lin...

This week, we are excited to bring you a special edition of the podcast, a recording of a panel done by Lori Calvasina (Head of US Equity Strategy), Helima Croft (Head of Global Commodity & MENA Research), and Frances Donald (Chief Economist, Royal Bank of Canada) on March 10th, 2026, at the RBC Financials conference in NYC. The team discussed recent events in the Middle East and the implicati...

The big things you need to know: First, we review the results of a survey we conducted of RBC’s equity analysts on the conflict in Iran, which helps explain the resilience we’ve seen in the S&P 500. Second, the valuation and sentiment barometers we’re tracking point to room for further downside in the S&P 500 in the near-term in absolute terms, while our work on US valuations vs. other glo...

The big things you need to know: We run through five things we’re thinking about regarding recent developments in the Middle East from a stock market perspective. Then, we wrap up with a few things we’re watching in terms of general stats to help us know when the recent risk off mood in markets may have played out.

The big things you need to know: First, the stock market is still experiencing a growth scare, in our view, where it is attempting to stabilize. We see more downside if recession is priced in. Second, we review how the process of resetting EPS expectations has begun, and run though key themes from the early reporters and companies that have presented at conferences since the Rose Garden. Our overa...

The big things you need to know: First, we review our stance on Small Caps. We had a little more love for them coming into Valentine’s Day weekend due to better fundamentals, but still see challenges that raise the bar for further outperformance (less appealing positioning and valuations, plus continued linkage to evolving views on the Fed). Second, other things that jump out include more evidence...

The big things you need to know: First, we run through our thoughts on last week’s choppy price action in the S&P 500 and reiterate our 7,750 12-month-forward S&P 500 price target. Second, we update the stats we’re tracking for 4Q25 reporting season, which generally bounced back in our latest update but remain weaker than what we’ve seen in past reporting seasons.

The big things you need to know: First, reporting season stats have come in “slightly squishy” in our view, suggesting to us that the choppy price action in the S&P 500 of late has been about more than geopolitical concerns. Second, what we read in earnings call transcripts this past week continues to suggest that the macro backdrop is mixed, though we are not seeing any indications of major p...

The big things you need to know: First, the various earnings stats we track point to a sleepy start to reporting season, suggesting to us that geopolitics hasn’t been the only thing contributing to the US equity market’s recent gyrations. These stats also highlight how the mega cap growth trade has seen its dominance on the earnings front erode in some ways, helping fuel the rotation trade to Valu...

The big things you need to know: First, our thoughts on earnings heading into 4Q25 reporting season – questions we think need answering and stats we’re watching. Second, other updates include our thoughts on implications in house views on the Fed for our own US equity market outlook, why we think last week’s economic data releases support the strong start to the year in US equities, why we think S...

The big things you need to know: First, after updating our models for end of year, we are reiterating our 7,750 12-month S&P 500 price target, noting that the signal from our sentiment model deteriorated since our last update in early December while the signal from our GDP model strengthened. Second, a few things that jumped out in our other updates included the recent divergence in the size a...

The big things you need to know: First, we are upgrading S&P 500 Health Care to overweight from market weight. Second, we are upgrading S&P 500 Communication Services to overweight from market weight. Third, our other S&P 500 recommendations are unchanged. We remain overweight Financials and Materials, underweight Consumer Discretionary, and market weight all other sectors. Among our m...

The big things you need to know: First, several things that US equity markets have been linked to (breadth, bitcoin, private market fears, Fed cut expectations, consumer sentiment) have gotten better in recent updates. Second, a few signals from our year-ahead outlook analysis have shifted over the past week. Third, there have been a few interesting twists and turns in positioning since Thanksgivi...

The big things you need to know: First, our 12-month-forward price target for the S&P 500 is 7,750, approximately the median and average of five different models that we use, which focus on sentiment, valuation, the appeal of stocks relative to bonds, the economic outlook, and monetary policy. Second, some of the key headwinds / downside risks and tailwinds / upside risks we’re monitoring incl...

The big things you need to know: First, with the S&P 500 having finally entered what we consider to be tier 1 / garden-variety-pullback territory on Thursday, we review what we’re watching to help us gauge if / when the pullback has run its course. Second, with old leadership within US equities under pressure, we review which trades are working best right now (or might be starting to work) amo...