RBC's Markets in Motion

Three big things you need to know: First, we are lifting our YE 2024 S&P 500 price target to 5,700 from 5,300, which we would characterize as a nervous raise. Second, we think the risks of a short-term pullback in the S&P 500 are growing, similar to what occurred in April. Third, on positioning, we think it will be tough for the US equity market to see a sustainable leadership transition a...

Three big things you need to know: First, the Duke CFO survey highlights how C-Suite confidence has remained steady, with monetary policy and automation in focus. Second, our new valuation stress test suggests the S&P 500 has been baking in optimistic views on inflation, interest rates, and the Fed. Third, recent funds flow trends point to a lingering desire for a shift in market leadership.

RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we are excited to have Chris Louney, Commodity Strategist on RBC’s Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research team, guest hosting this week’s episode while Lori is out. Three big things you need to know: First, whil...

Three big things you need to know: First, the continued outperformance of mega cap Growth stocks has been logical, but still somewhat jarring to us. Second, Small Caps broke to clear new lows relative to Large Caps last week as risks piled up including a Fed that seems inclined to cut just once this year. We’d stay on the sidelines with Small Caps for now. Third, investor sentiment continues to co...

Special Edition: This is a special edition of RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast, recorded on June 4th, 2024, from the RBC Capital Markets 2024 Global Energy, Power & Infrastructure Conference (EPIC). Lori is joined by two of her road warrior colleagues, Ben Fisher (Midwest Equity Sales, specializes in macro) and Amy Wu Silverman (RBC’s Equity Derivatives Strategist). The format this time is a bi...

Two big things you need to know: First, we highlight how and why old leadership in the US equity market has returned with a vengeance and run through our latest thoughts on what might get the rotation trade going again. Second, several of the gauges of investor sentiment and equity market risk that we track are keeping us neutral on stocks through year-end for now, and tactically cautious.

The big things you need to know: First, Small Caps are retesting their relative low vs. Large Caps once again, as Fed rate cut optimism has faded once again. We remain neutral Small vs. Large for now. Second, investor sentiment has almost returned to the highs in place to start the year (as well as the summer of 2023) on the AAII survey, reinforcing our neutral stance on the broader US equity mark...

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, Tech has bounced back on performance and earnings revisions but valuations remain a problem. Second, valuations more broadly have started to look less appealing. Third, other updates in our high frequency indicators highlight how pendulums have swung on a few different fronts (namely investor sentiment, election stats, and...

The big things you need to know: First, reporting season has ended up looking just fine on the stats, with one twist at the end. Second, we update our rundown of key themes on earnings calls. Third, net bulls on the AAII survey bounced back last week as 10-year yields decoupled from their 2023 spike, hopes for Fed cuts returned, and flows to US equity funds improved.

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, after a weak start to 1Q24 reporting season, it has settled into a groove on the stats. Second, we review our thoughts on key themes on company earnings calls so far. Third, we highlight what’s jumping out on our high frequency indicators. This includes our main sentiment indicator (which we still think hasn’t fallen enough...

The big things you need to know: First, we’ve just completed our quarterly survey of RBC’s equity analysts around the globe and found that optimism on performance persists for most sectors and coverage regions, despite the challenges associated with higher interest rates. Second, with a fresh set of survey results in hand we are making three changes to our sector recommendations. Within the US (an...

The big things you need to know: First, investor sentiment has taken a bit of a hit, but it’s too early to say the pullback is over. Second, while we continue to expect the pullback to bottom out in the 5-10% range vs. recent highs, we’ve taken a look at S&P 500 performance around recent wars to gauge potential downside risks if we are wrong in that assumption. Third, it’s been a rough start t...

The big things you need to know: First, geopolitical concerns are spiking at a time when stocks already seemed due for a pullback. Second, the rotation trade has just gotten a lot more complicated. Third, companies have been keeping expectations low on earnings. Fourth, our valuation modeling suggests some modest downside risk to the stock market if we don’t get cuts, and a more significant hit if...

Two big things you need to know: First, the Energy sector still looks attractive to us, even after its big move in March, and we remain overweight. Second, Trump has lost some momentum in swing state polling, challenging a key assumption of many non-US investors.

Three big things you need to know today: First, we lift our YE 2024 S&P 500 price target to 5,300 (from 5,150). The most constructive model in our tool kit indicates upside to ~5,400, which represents our bull case if our base case is too conservative. Second, we continue to see some conflicting cross currents for stocks. Among the five models that we use, our economic, valuation, and cross-as...

Two big things you need to know today: First, our work on the R2000 relative to the S&P 600 (sparked by Small Cap PM concerns about low quality) adds to our belief that the US came close to recession in 2022. Second, CFTC buyside positioning in US equity futures rebounded last week ahead of the Fed, highlighting increased risk of a melt-up in the broader US equity market.

Three big things you need to know: First, Energy has been a top S&P 500 sector since January. We like its attractive valuations, improving funds flows, and role as an inflation hedge in our overweights. Second, Large Caps are starting to look a little better than Small Caps on a few of the earnings-related metrics that we track, suggesting to us that Small Caps’ sluggish performance of late is...

Three big things you need to know: First, one of our key sentiment indicators has started to retreat after hitting extreme levels, which has coincided with a stealth rotation in leadership. Second, we’re starting to see a more broad-based improvement in US GDP expectations, which we see as supportive of continued rotation in stock market leadership. Third, Biden put out his wish list in Thursday’s...

RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we are excited to have Chris Louney, Commodity Strategist on RBC’s Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research team, guest hosting this week’s episode while Lori is on vacation. Three big things you need to know: Fir...

Three big things you need to know: First, 4Q23 reporting season stats are similar to what we’ve described over the past few weeks with fewer earnings beats than last quarter, muted stock price reactions following earnings prints, and further compression in the forecasted growth rate embedded in consensus earnings expectations for 2024. Second, in our review of last week’s S&P 500 earnings call...

Three big things you need to know: First, with reporting season almost halfway done, bottom-up consensus expectations for EPS growth in 2024 have shrunk to 9% from 11% – a combination of better-than-expected results for 2023 and a modest dampening of enthusiasm for 2024’s outlook. Second, a murky macro backdrop, elevated costs, and China challenges have been in focus in recent earnings calls along...

Three big things you need to know: First, we’d describe 4Q23 reporting season as a mixed bag so far. Second, in our transcript review we were struck by the wide range of views on the macro backdrop and outlook as well as the continued emphasis on the challenges associated with inflation and higher costs. Third, things that jumped out in our high frequency indicators last week included some modest...

Three big things you need to know: First, EPS growth in the top 7 names in the S&P 500 is expected to continue outpacing the rest of the index in 2024 and 2025, but to a lesser degree than we saw in 2023. Second, companies have tried to strike an optimistic tone in the first batch of 4Q23 earnings calls, with consumer resilience, macro risks, and the theme of normalization emphasized. Third, t...

Last week, ahead of earnings, we updated our thoughts on sectors for 2024 for both the US as well as other geographical regions under RBC’s coverage, Europe, Canada, and Australia. The work was based on our own top-down quantitative analysis on earnings revisions, valuations, and macro fundamentals, as well as the results of a survey that we conducted of RBC’s industry analysts in late December an...

We've updated our thoughts on the 2024 outlook for the US equity market, focusing on the top 10 things we’re thinking about as the new year gets underway. The biggest things you need to know: First, in December we became concerned about the possibility of a near-term pullback in the US equity market given deterioration in our sentiment work, and that remains the case today. Second, despite these n...